Cowboys at Eagles Post Mortem

Tough loss.

Ranked reasons why we lost:
1) Sheldon biting on the double move. That 7 points is why the Eagles lost.
2) Offensive turnovers. 1 was 5's fault, other Maclin's.
3) Poor game plan.
a) Didn't call the right pass plays early and did nothing in 1Q.
b) Running game was working when they tried it, but took too long to get there.
4) O-line regressed back to OAK game.
5) Defense didn't create any turnovers.

Additional Comments on the Game:
I don't mind Reid calling for a FG there at the end. He was playing to win. He needs 2 scores and had 4th and long in FG range. You take that and lean on your D.

Tough to say where the fault for the dismal offensive performance truly lies. I'd say equally with 5, o-line, WRs, and game plan.

Upcoming posts:
1) Outlook for the 2nd half of the season.
2) Fake Life.

FO says what?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

For some reason, the Eagles always end up highly ranked by their stats. The really interesting thing currently though is that they're #2 because their D is #1 in DVOA, while the offense is only 12th. Gotta love those turnovers.

Cowboys at Eagles Preview

Reasons why Dallas will win:
Eagles are awful against TEs and Witten is a top 3 TE.
DAL can get great pressure from DEs.
Romo is on a roll.
PHI is getting a lot of points of turnovers - is this sustainable?
DAL has very good running game.

Reasons why Philadelphia will win:
Westbrook is coming back.
OL is getting healthy and starting to gel.
DeSean is consistently making big plays.
PHI defense has been playing well over past month.


Keys to the game:
PHI wins if they can make Romo look like Eli did last week.
DAL will win if they can exploit PHI's linebackers.

This game could easily play out like last week's game. I like the Eagles' upside here but they have to start fast. If McNabb starts a little slow, the Dallas D could make it really hard for PHI to catch back up.

It's not an Age thing

OK. Here are the stats for the average age of NFL teams. Hey, guess who's the oldest?

Average Age	Birth Date	Team
28.1	10/03/81	WASHINGTON
28.06	10/19/81	NEW ORLEANS
27.84	01/05/82	ARIZONA
27.84	01/06/82	DETROIT
27.77	01/31/82	SEATTLE
27.74	02/12/82	CLEVELAND
27.69	03/01/82	DENVER
27.63	03/25/82	NEW ENGLAND
27.62	03/28/82	SAN FRANCISCO
27.61	03/30/82	PITTSBURGH
27.59	04/08/82	MINNESOTA
27.58	04/10/82	ATLANTA
27.53	04/29/82	TENNESSEE
27.51	05/06/82	NEW YORK JETS
27.24	08/14/82	Average
27.18	09/04/82	SAN DIEGO
27.16	09/12/82	OAKLAND
27.12	09/25/82	Median
27.09	10/07/82	PHILADELPHIA
27.08	10/11/82	CHICAGO
27.02	11/03/82	INDIANAPOLIS
27.01	11/05/82	HOUSTON
26.98	11/17/82	BUFFALO
26.97	11/19/82	BALTIMORE
26.95	11/26/82	NEW YORK GIANTS
26.9	12/14/82	DALLAS
26.86	12/28/82	CAROLINA
26.77	02/02/83	JACKSONVILLE
26.75	02/10/83	CINCINNATI
26.68	03/06/83	MIAMA
26.66	03/14/83	TAMPA BAY
26.52	05/03/83	KANSAS CITY
26.5	05/09/83	GREEN BAY
26.43	06/05/83	ST. LOUIS

Couple observations:

1) There's only an 18 month difference between the oldest and the youngest teams. And the standard deviation is 6 months. These are pretty small numbers if you ask me. Is there a material difference between a 26 1/2 year old and a 28 year old? Um, not in my opinion.

2) Philly's about as close to the middle (median) as you can get.

3) Giants and Cowboys are only 2 months younger than the Eagles so for all basically the same age.

I started to look at wins per age group but didn't see much correlation outside of the bottom 4. Also tough to make material judgments considering some teams have had byes and others have not. Oh, and we're not even halfway through the season.

I considered looking at these numbers only on a starting or skill position basis but thought it might be too much work vs. benefit for the following reasons:
a) A material portion of any game is special teams, which are all the young guys.
b) Only looking at skill positions leaves off the O and D lines (which win games if you believe the talking heads).

So I guess my take away from this information is that age is not a determining factor.

Giants at Eagles Post Mortem

Just what I said. More upside. What an enjoyable game to watch. There weren't many things that I disliked about this game so let's go straight to what I liked:

Big plays to DeSean, McCoy, Maclin, and Weaver for crying out loud.

No Wildcat plays! Vick in for one play, but a decent call with him running wide. He's lost at least 1 step if not 2 while in prison. Does not bode well for the rest of his career.

Very solid special teams play outside of the botched kickoff late in the game. Great returns, long punts with limited returns, Akers has no missed FGs.

Won the turnover battle. And still converted most into points.

I hate to say that the Giants lost this game rather than the Eagles winning it, but it just seemed too easy. Boom and they're up by 16 points. Then just when NY tried to make a game of it late in the first half, 14 more points. I really think the mark of a good team is making games look too easy. And Philly definitely did that this week.

All in all, a very tasty win.

Giants at Eagles Preview

Ugh. This is going to be one of those agonizing slugfests that are painful to watch. I haven't watched much of NY yet this year, but my gut says they've got the better team . . . on average. I like Philly's upside more though. What I mean by that is that if these teams played 10 games, then NY probably wins 6 of them all by close scores, while Philly would win 2 or 3 of them in blowouts.

10 things I want to see from this game (ranked in order of preference):

10. Solid special teams coverage.
9. Another good game from Witherspoon. I really hope Monday night wasn't a 1 game fluke.
8. Good game from Akers with several touchbacks and no FG misses inside 45 yards.
7. No Wildcat plays.
6. Consistant pressure from the D-Line.
5. No more dumb penalties on 3rd downs - especially personal fouls and offsides.
4. Gotta win the turnover battle.
3. McNabb in an early rhythm.
2. Long TDs by DeSean "Action" Jackson
1. Some tasty sausage!

Sausage Fest

There are two kinds of people in this world. There are the kind of people who love the taste of sausage and don't really care how or with what it's made. And then there are the people who like the taste of good sausage, but will never fully enjoy it because of what goes into the making of it.

Personally, I love my Eagles sausage. I don't care how many penalties are included. Run/pass ratio under 40%? Meh. Is my sausage now made without my favorite defensive player? Different flavor, but it still goes down the hatch pretty well. Heck, that flavor was mostly expired anyway and was already starting to cause some indegestion (remember all those blown coverages last year?). At the end of the day, I really don't care what goes into making my sausage as long as a Win is coming out in the end.

I've come to realize over the years though that most Philly fans care more about what goes into their sausage than the taste. And that's baffling to me. I really can't understand why the ingredients should count more than the taste of the product. If you're really an "entertainment" gourmet, then shouldn't you be ingesting something a little higher quality than sausage in the first place?

I think we all agree that there's no such thing as a moral victory in professional football. Losing a well fought game is still a loss and makes it that much tougher to reach the playoffs, which is where any team has to get to in order to win a championship. But if that's the case, then there shouldn't be any such thing as a moral defeat either. If you have one, you have to have the other.

So if there are no moral defeats, then let's stop holding our noses when we watch this team. Let's stop critiquing ever little coaching gaffe or execution blunder and focus on what is truly important: This team has won twice the number of games than it's lost so far this year. And I LOVE the taste of that sausage!

World Series Scouting Reports

good scouting reports on the lineups at the ny daily news

Eagles at Redskins: Post Mortem

Good win. Any time you go on the road to a division rival and win by 10 points is a Good Win. For those who would disagree with this statement, check back later this week for my Sausage Fest post.

What I disliked about the game:

1) Wildcat plays.
2) All the penalties. They realize this isn't the preseason anymore, right? All the personal fouls are just killing this team. Along with the offsides and defensive holding and . . .
3) 36 goes down again. Stop me if you've heard this one before. And McCoy didn't jump out at me as having a great game. Not that he had a bad one, but I didn't see much burst.
4) McNabb was a little off. Several passes seemed to be well off the mark. Tough to say how much of this was the offensive line not helping him out a whole lot. I thought he looked really good scrambling around and buying time. It's night and day between him and Campbell as to how well they look when the pocket starts collapsing around them. For those who think we need an upgrade at this position, there are many, many worse QBs starting in this league than the one we've got right now.
5) ESPN's commentators (though this isn't really an ESPN gripe). OK, we get it. The Redskins have some coaching issues. And "execution" is more important than the play calling. They must either think we're the dumbest humans on the planet and need to be told something 15 times in order to understand it or that their audience is turning over every 4 plays (or waking up in the Ed Wade household).

What I liked about the game:

1) They won.
2) DeSean Jackson. I love that the law of averages with Eagles drafting WRs early finally caught up with the team. Even with the "he loves him some him" pregame bit, this kid is a whole truckload of "wow". He's an early version of Brian Westbrook. And since the shelf life of WRs is about twice that of RBs, we could be in store for literally dozens more games like this. His average TD catch is 50 yards!
3) Turnover battle wins them this game. Scored on all the of the early game turnovers.
4) Akers knocks in all his FG attempts and seemed to have decent distance on his kickoffs.

What this game tells us about the future:

1) Not a lot. The Redskins suck.
2) Not a very disciplined bunch of guys right not. My hope is that this is because it's a lot of young guys and they'll grow out of it.
3) This offense could be ridiculously good. That has got to be about the worst looking 20 points, I've ever seen an offense score. Imagine if the Eagles had been halfway decent? WAS isn't a good team, but still that has to give some cause for optimism.
4) This offensive line needs to get better fast because this is the only way #3 directly above is going to happen.

The Wildcat is Roadkill: Let it Die

This is the first of 11 regular season pleadings to outlaw the Wildcat (or Spread Eagle depending on your terminology). It's not working. They're not getting the big plays so effectively they're capping themselves out at 5-7 yards per Wildcat attempt.

So why the heck would you want that with DeSean Jackson as an option?!?!

Eagles vs. Redskins Preview

The Eagles opponent this week:

Storied franchise? Check.
Dysfunctional coaching staff? Check.
Underachieving QB? Check.

Ladies and gentlemen, it's Eagles vs. Raiders: Part II

After last week's total brain fart of a game, there's no way any fan can not be extremely nervous about this game. After last week's game, there's no way this team doesn't come out and blow the Redskins off the field.

Any neutral observer has the Eagles as the more talented team as demonstrated by Vegas having them as a TD favorite on the road. There's no way Reid goes into a division game with half a game plan like last week. And I would imagine the players' pride is wounded enough to come out with several chips on their shoulders.

Eagles on MNF

How is it the Eagles only get 1 MNF game this year? As one of the four best teams from the prior year, shouldn't they rate 2 or 3? Granted they've got 3 Sunday night games, but still. Or maybe SNF is now the new MNF?

Guess who got the keys to daddy's old, unused car?

TMG decided this blog needed some fresh blood, so he invited the only Eagles optimist left to help him out. So much of Eaglesdom is doom and gloom that I feel it's my personal mission to help bring a little light to the topic of being an Eagles fan. While I'll generally focus on the positives of this team (and being a fan of them), I will be critical when needed and as objective as possible about the play on the field. But never in a WIP-fashion.

But more importantly, I promise fresh posts and new content at least weekly!

2009 - Game 1 Thoughts

wow. i am ecstatic with today's win. even if i thought i had a feel for the team coming into this season (i didn't), i don't think there is any way i'd have predicted that the birds would totally dominate a 12 win team in such devastating fashion.

a few things that were plainly evident today:

- this team can rush the passer. wow, can this team rush the passer. cole, parker, abiamiri, clemons, howard -- holy smokes. those guys combined with our two great fat guys clogging up the middle to just dominate what is supposed to be a very good o-line. good omen for the season if this is what the defense can do.

- desean jackson is so f-ing fast. when he runs, we might as well be the guys chasing him. everyone looks like they're running in quicksand. he scares me when he starts celebrating 20 yards from the endzone though... "don't drop the f-ing ball!"

- i only noticed winston justice once today -- on the peppers sack when mcnabb rolled left and probably should have let the ball go or run the ball. he played well.

- peters mashes people off the line. tra was a great pass blocker, but he was never a particularly good run blocker. if peters gets his "timing and cadence" down, big red's proclaimation that peters is the best left tackle in the game might not be too far off. (though i don't really understand why it's taking so long for him to get the timing down on the silent count)

- the panthers had 169 total yards today (about 50 of them on the first drive after that fluky parker facemask). 2.9 yards per rush, 2.4 yards per pass. are you kidding me. this was a team that won 12 games last season!

- quintin mikell trucked a running back on a safety blitz. i had to rewind the dvr to see which "linebacker" had done the pancaking, only to be surprised to see it was a safety. i've never seen a safety do that before.

- the birds can rush the passer, and they have 4 starting caliber cornerbacks. they've consistently been 3 deep on corners, but never this deep. also, how professional is sheldon brown? lito doesn't get his new contract, he pouts, whines, and fakes injury. sheldon takes it like a man, and uses it as motivation. he looks primed to have a pretty damn good season. if he plays like this for the rest of the season, i'd give him his new contract.

- akers must have gone on the lenny dykstra vitamin routine this offseason. he never kicked the ball further than he did today. his opening kick was 4 yards deep in the endzone and his 48 yard field goal would have been good from 60 easily (it was 2/3 of the way up the net when it hit). whatever it takes baby.

- really happy to see the birds have a legitimate nfl fullback on the roster. haven't had one since poor jon ritchie blew out his knee.

some things not to lose sight of in the euphoria of the win:

- drops, it never changes with this team. donovan just throws the ball too hard i guess. don only threw 18 passes today and 3 of them were drops on balls that hit the receiver in the numbers.

- westbrook did not show any explosiveness. coming off injury, probably not in game shape, doesn't have his timing, etc. all of those are probably factors, no doubt, but westbrook's first two steps were s-l-o-w compared to a couple of seasons ago. the good news is that mccoy looked active and spry.

- kevin kolb has no pocket awareness right now. i'm being tough on him too, but let's not be too rough on him. he's basically never played in the nfl. i don't think he's doing any worse than don did his first few games. kolb just doesn't have the athleticism to keep stuff alive while he gets his bearings. that being said, this defense better come prepared to play if don is out next week. there is a pretty darn prolific offense coming to town.

one interesting note: while trying to educate myself a little on the upcoming season over the last week and i read a few things that surprised me, one of them was that darren howard and chris gocong were among the leaders at their positions for "defeating" the opposing player in one on one situations.

i'd be interested to see how our fat guys stack up. i'm really happy with how bunkley and patterson control the middle. i know everyone was very worried when bradley went down, but do you think it's possible that the play of the fat guys possibly made him look better than he actually was? just a thought. i thought he was a good player, but didn't really understand why everyone was panicking when he went down. the guy is not the second coming of ray lewis.

what a way to start a season!

Tickets Arrive!

happy day! my eagles tickets arrive in the mail. a little bittersweet though. all of the miserable seasons i've experienced being of fan of these underperforming professional sports teams of ours, and i'm too busy these days to enjoy the best run we've had since the late 70's/early 80's glory years.

Eagles Trade for Peters

eagles trade for one of the top left tackles in the league. needless to say, i'm very happy with this move. on paper, adding this one anchor piece to the line makes this the best o-line they've had heading into a season. they have size, youth, and versatility like i haven't seen in previous o-lines, and two guys who are top 3 at their positions.

my brother and i were talking a couple of months ago and this was the move i was hoping the birds would be able to pull off. i'm ecstatic that they did.

a large portion of the eagles fanbase will be urging the birds to trade for anquan boldin as well. i'm not sure that is such a great idea. first, he's a good wideout, but not a difference making wideout. i don't think you bring a guy like that in and overpay him, it screws up your teams entire pay structure (if you need an example, just take a look at how many bad contracts the sixers have).

i'd gladly give a one and a three for larry fitzgerald, but i wouldn't give a one and a three for boldin. they're not in the same class. if the eagles do go after a receiver, the best one out there is braylon edwards. he's no larry fitzgerald, but he's better than both boldin and roy williams.

Sad Days for Eagles Nation

i gotta admit, this is hurting worse than i thought it would. i'm usually able to react pretty clinically whenever a favorite player departs -- reggie white, seth joyner, allen iverson, charles barkley, steve carlton, eric lindros (i know i'm in the minority) -- but this has been tough to handle.

some more brian dawkins videos:

Farewell to Brian Dawkins?

profootballtalk.com is reporting that brian dawkins has signed with denver. brian dawkins is my all-time favorite eagle and it will be odd to see anyone else lining up at safety for the birds.

odder still will be seeing him in a denver uniform at the linc (denver is one of the home opponents this season).

all good things must come to an end, i guess. i enjoyed watching you play mr. dawkins, and it was a pleasure rooting for you. i wish you only good fortune as you move onto your new team!

UPDATE: the inquirer is reporting this morning that the dawkins deal is not done and that he may still be talking to the birds

If Eagles Fans Had Done This...

it would be a lead story on the national news

here are giants fans smashing up a porsche in the parking lot after seeing their team lose


and when they're finished with that one, they move onto the next car


not the first time, here's how giants fans celebrated the superbowl win earlier this year


ever hear a peep about this crap in the media?

Divisional Playoff Game Thoughts

what a freaking game today. it was ugly, it was physical, it was wonderful. to go on the road for the second week in a row and take it to the defending champs. phew! what a thoroughly enjoyable run this team is having.

there were many good performances today, but i think the big difference between these two team was QB play. i have no doubt that if you swapped manning and mcnabb, you'd be looking at a giants win right now. mcnabb may not have the physical tools he did when he was younger, but he's playing better than he has in a long time.

today wasn't a very good day for him statistically but he made all the plays the eagles needed to win. he made a number of clutch throws -- especially the stunning 3rd and 20 pass to avant -- but the play that stood out to me was a short pass to kevin curtis for the first down late in the third quarter just after carney missed a 47 yard field goal. the eagles had just gotten the ball back and needed a nice long drive to take some time off the clock. on first down around mid-field, the play call was a quick slant to curtis on right. the giants called for a zone blitz with justin tuck dropping into that passing lane -- the exact right defense for the play. i'm not sure how, but mcnabb saw tuck dropping into that lane and double clutched, waiting for curtis and tuck to run by each other and then threw a dart for a 15 yard catch and run. most QBs throw it right into tuck's belly on that play, heck i've seen don throw it right into a defender's belly in that exact situation before. maybe you can't read too much into a single play, but i'm impressed that he appears to be still growing and learning as a QB.

other thoughts:

- kudos to the coaching staff. they went with a balanced approach in the first half -- lots of running followed up with deep drops looking for a big play -- but the giants were getting way too much pressure on mcnabb and the offense was completely out of sync. the second half was a completely different story -- pass, pass, pass, pass -- but mostly quick drops and underneath routes. halftime adjustments.

- love that we continue to see the QB sneak! how about the difference between a mcnabb sneak and a half-hearted manning sneak?

- the defense played a terrific game today but they sold out to stop the run and there were guys running free in the secondary. thankfully, eli manning was the opposing QB and almost all of those guys were missed badly.

- bunkley and patterson were simply awesome today -- especially on those two stuffs on 4th and short.

- does asante samuel exert some sort of gravitational pull on footballs? asante, my apologies for thinking that the biggest difference between you and lito was your ability to stay healthy/play in pain. you're twice the corner that lito ever was. also, i really enjoyed how you ran the pick back right at eli, even though eli obviously had no desire or intent to get in on the tackle.

- the play mix today was 45 called passes and 23 called runs -- 66% passing

- fox flashed back-to-back stats during the game -- apparently the giants and eagles were ranked first and second this year in points scored during the last 2 minutes of the first half. did everyone see that? how do we reconcile that with the notion that the eagles suck at the 2 minute drill? is it possible that my contention that there are no teams who are "good" at the 2 minute drill is accurate? what causes that disconnect? i'm not sure exactly, but i don't think anyone can complain today, the 2 minute drill at the end of the first half was a thing of beauty.

- footballoutsiders are feeling pretty good about themselves today. the eagles finished at the top of their ratings this year (first time ever for them and first time ever for a wild card team). makes a lot more sense now than at the end of the regular season.

- thank goodness eli manning still stinks. this myth that's been growing about him ever since he happened to be on a team that won a superbowl has been annoying.

- andy opened himself up for a lot of criticism when he continued to pass (and pass downfield) with the lead. lot of guts andy.

- does anyone think that playing on the road has been good for this team? that the pressure of winning in front of the home crowd might have made the birds play a little tighter?

next up, the cardinals. eagles open up as 3.5 point favorites on the road...

E-A-G-L-E-S.... EAGLES!

JC Romero Thoughts

most of philadelphia is up-in-arms about the "injustice" of jc romero being given a 50 game suspension for "unknowingly" taking banned substances from a supplement he bought at a GNC.

i can certainly understand where people are coming from, because i was thinking the same way until i looked at the product he purchased. some facts, as reported, that would lead you to side with jc are:

- this product wasn't on the banned substances list

- jc asked multiple nutritionists if the ingredients in the supplement were ok to take

- jc asked the trainer if the supplement was ok to take (trainer said he didn't know)

- jc asked the union if it was ok to take (union said it was ok)

based on these widely reported facts, i initially thought that the suspension seemed unfair -- that he never intended to violate the drug policy and that he took the "supplement" in good faith.

then out of curiosity, i googled the product he supposedly took. here is the first google link that came up:

http://anabolicminds.com/store/1347.html

it's not a popular stance, but i'm on record as saying that i think this whole notion of cheating makes no sense to me. if a grown man wants to take something that makes him a better player -- thereby increasing my entertainment -- so be it. (note: i understand the argument that allowing pros to take steroids encourages kids to take it. it's potentially the only valid reason to ban the stuff.)

however, for good or bad, the rules are in place... and it's clear to me that romero's intent was to artificially boost his testosterone levels via these "supplements". so while in his mind, he may not have technically violated the doping restrictions. to me, his intent to circumvent the spirit of the rule is clear.

here is some text from the advertising for the "supplement":

We undertook the due testing to prove to ourselves that this product had the ability to stimulate testosterone levels beyond even the range of upper normal - indeed it stimulates levels well into the supraphysiological range.

i don't know. sounds like steroids to me.

Wild Card Game

in case anyone is online during the game

Characteristics of Winning Teams (2004-2008)

following up on the previous post, here are the regressions for team stats over the last five seasons. whereas last time, i listed tried to eliminate duplicates (e.g. attempts and attempts per game) and limit the list to only the variables i thought were important (e.g. i removed 4th down conversions and pcts). this time, i thought it would be best to just post all the data so everyone can make their own assessments.

i've done a little more formatting than i typically do on this minimalist blog due to the increased amount of data.

so just to recap, the following tables display the correlation coefficient between all of the basic team stats from nfl.com over the last five seasons and the number of wins earned by the team that generated those stats.

cells highlighted in yellow represent a correlation coefficient between .5 and .65.

cells highlighted in orange represent a correlation coefficient between .65 and .8.

cells highlighted in red represent a correlation coefficient greater than .8.

not sure exactly what this tells us, but here are some initial observations:

- clearly the strongest correlation for defense is to not get run on. not to "stop the run" necessarily (though obviously forcing 3 and outs would limit the number of rushes against), but the number and percentage of carries against were the strongest relationships on either side of ball.

- against the rush, the aggregate stats (attempts, total yards, number of 1st downs) appear to correlate much stronger than the efficiency stats (avg/YPC, 1st down pct)

- against the pass, the reverse is true as the efficiency stats (avg/YPA, QB rating) show much stronger correlation than the aggregate stats (completions, yards, 1st downs)

- on offense, we see a similar pattern with aggregate stats mattering for rushing (attempts, number of TDs, number of 1st downs) and efficiency stats mattering for passing (QB rating, avg/YPA, 1st down pct)

- i continue to be shocked how little YPC seems to correlate to the win totals of the teams

- turnovers showed a much stronger correlation with the broader data set

here are a couple of scatterplots to show you how recent eagles teams compare against the league over the last five seasons.

first wins vs. point differential for the whole league over the last five seasons. the last five eagles teams are shown as large red points. this is a pretty obvious relationship, but it's interesting to see just how much this year's team has underperformed relative to their overall point differential (point differential has a .917 correlation with wins).

next is one of the stronger offensive stats -- percentage of passes that result in a first down. this had a correlation coefficient of .601.

Characteristics of Winning Teams

somehow, brian burke and i ended up independently writing about establishing the run on the same day. he looked at whether or not running the ball early/more really does tend to wear down a defense using the premise that if a defense really was wearing down, you'd see yards per carry increase as the number of runs increased -- that the YPC would be higher for the 30th carry than the 1st carry. turns out that conventional football wisdom may be wrong about this as well.

in fact, if you look at his graph, it actually looks like it has a slight downward slope -- that the early runs tend to be more effective than the late runs. though that could be impacted by other factors, e.g. teams that have a 40th carry are probably protecting a big lead forcing the other team to stack the line trying to get the ball back.

so, i wanted to take a look at what team stats correlated strongly with winning this season -- it's been done before, but i may be the first to do it with this year's numbers. here is what i came up with (correlating the following stats for each team with that team's number of wins this season):

Stat	Corr
PF	0.692
PA	-0.784
Net Pts	0.909
TO	0.430

so this basically makes sense, points scored correlates pretty well with the number of wins, but not as strongly as points against (defense wins championships, you know). though neither of them as strongly point differential, validating what we already know -- that you need both offense and defense to win. interestingly, turnover differential isn't that strong of a predictor.

here are some of the individual offensive and defensive stats (from nfl.com)

Category	Stat	Corr		Category	Stat	Corr
TotOff	Yds/G	0.561		TotDef	Yds/G	-0.726
TotOff	Yds/P	0.477		TotDef	Yds/P	-0.682
TotOff	3rd Pct	0.552		TotDef	3rd Pct	-0.480
TotOff	Pen	0.004		TotDef	Pen	0.192
TotOff	Pen Yds	0.029		TotDef	Pen Yds	0.178
TotOff	RunPct	0.373		TotDef	RunPct	-0.715
OffPass	CmpPct	0.488		DefPass	CmpPct	-0.405
OffPass	Att/G	-0.087		DefPass	Att/G	0.426
OffPass	YPA	0.483		DefPass	YPA	-0.689
OffPass	Yds/G	0.297		DefPass	Yds/G	-0.424
OffPass	1st%	0.652		DefPass	1st%	-0.580
OffPass	20+	0.169		DefPass	20+	-0.378
OffPass	Sck	-0.473		DefPass	Sck	0.562
OffPass	QBRate	0.561		DefPass	QBRate	-0.594
OffRush	Att/G	0.547		DefRush	Att/G	-0.775
OffRush	Avg	0.149		DefRush	Avg	-0.532
OffRush	Yds/G	0.484		DefRush	Yds/G	-0.722
OffRush	1st%	0.201		DefRush	1st%	-0.509
OffRush	20+	0.301		DefRush	20+	-0.591

some interesting stuff here. for the 2008 season, there were only five offensive team offensive stats that correlated fairly strongly with wins, they were (in order):

- percent of passes resulting in a first down
- total yards per game
- team QB rating
- third down conversion rate
- number of rushing attempts per game

of course, this doesn't tell us which of these factors are causative and which merely correlate, but here's how i interpret what this is telling us -- winning teams move the ball up and down the field via efficient passing games to score points and then protect them by running the ball.

there were lots of decent to good defensive predictors of success, the top 10 were (in order):

- rushing attempts per game against
- total yards against per game
- rushing yards against per game
- run/pass play mix against (more runs against = fewer wins)
- yards per pass against
- yards per play against
- QB rating against
- big rushing plays against (20+yards)
- percent of passes resulting in first down
- yards per rush against

a lot of these defensive stats overlap, but it's clear that stopping the run correlates strongly with winning. the question is, does stopping the run cause winning or does winning cause other teams to not run? it's not clear cut, but yards per rush against (i.e. defensive success against each running play) is a much weaker correlation than rushing attempts per game and total rushing yardage against which may indicate that that forcing teams to pass is slightly more important than stopping the run.

a few surprising things that conventional wisdom says are important, but don't in fact seem to correlate strongly with wins are:

- number of penalties (for or against)
- penalty yards (for or against)
- offensive rushing yards per carry

Myth of Establishing the Run

i'm on record as being a fan of the power running game and not a big fan of the worst coast offense, but this ongoing notion of needing to establish the run to win continues to baffle me. i keep hearing every tv and radio talking head pointing to yesterday's win as proof that you have to run to win. i just don't understand why this perception sticks in people's minds or how you can point to yesterday as proof that running leads to winning.

the game was won in the early part of yesterday's game -- game over at 17-3. let's review the eagle drives leading to that point.

drive 1
1 run for 2 yards
4 passes for 27 yards
drive ends on westbrook fumble

drive 2
4 rushes for 29 yards
2 passes for 3 scramble yards
drive ends in FG

drive 3
2 rushes for 8 yards
2 passes for 59 yards
2 QB sneaks
drive ends in TD

drive 4
2 rushes for 8 yards
1 pass resulting in sack
drive ends in punt

drive 5
5 runs for 6 yards
6 passes for 65 yards
drive ends in TD

totals for first five drives
14 called runs leading to 53 yards -- 3.8 yards per play
15 called passes leading to 145 yards -- 9.7 yards per play

i know people are looking at that at the number of called plays and thinking "see that's balance", but the runs were not meaningful in building that 17-3 lead. that lead was built entirely on 2 big plays -- mcnabb scramble and pass to buckhalter and mcnabb floating a ball over tight coverage to desean jackson.

just for sh*ts and giggles, let's compare the playcalling for this game to the first five real drives of the washington game.

drive 1
2 rushes for 2 yards
4 passes for 13 yards
drive ends in punt

drive 2
3 rushes for 16 yards
3 passes for -3 yards
drive ends in punt

drive 3
1 rush for 4 yards
3 passes for 13 yards
drive ends in punt

drive 4
1 rush for 2 yards
2 passes for 7 yards
drive ends in punt

drive 5
not counting since end of first half
2 rushes for 11 yards
drive ends at halftime

drive 6
2 rushes for 10 yards (though the birds also ran an end around called back for holding)
4 passes for 6 net yards
drive ends in fumble

totals for first five real drives
9 rushes for 34 yards (10 called rushes) -- 3.8 yards per play
16 called passes for 36 yards -- 2.25 yards per play

was playcalling mix or establishing the run really a meaningful difference in these two games? doesn't seem like it to me.

yes, the eagles called a few more runs in the dallas game than in the washington game, but the real difference was execution in the passing game. correlation does not necessarily mean causation.

forget what the talking heads are telling you. if the eagles are to win in the playoffs, they must execute consistently in the passing game.

UPDATE: i didn't come up with this notion and my rudimentary analysis above is not intended to prove that passing is more important than running, my intent is only to counter the popular current theme that the eagles won "because the playcalling was more balanced". however, here are some links that cover the topic in more detail:

- usatoday - myth #1
- cnnsi.com - myth #1
- nytimes
- benjamin alamar - passing premium puzzle
- aaron schatz - myth of the run

finally, there is brian burke (i've linked to these before and they're definitely a lot to digest but worth a read). brian covers the topic across three posts finally concluding (correctly i believe) that to think about it as run vs. pass oversimplifies the analysis. we need to determine what each team happens to be good at and determine the proper mix accordingly (similar to my contention that it isn't what kind of play a team calls, only that it is successful).

Game 17 Thoughts

happy holidays eagles fans!

did anyone out there have hope that the ending to the season would shake out as well as it did? i certainly didn't.

despite the devastating loss to washington last week, despite the maddening inconsistency all season, despite the hideous tie to the bengals, this eagles team is heading in the playoffs playing as well as any team in football... really. to do it in dominating, humiliating fashion while simultaneously knocking the cowboys out of the playoffs, well that's just icing on the cake --

how 'bout them cowboys!

as much complaining as we've done and conclusions as we've (probably prematurely) drawn, the bottom line is that the birds (our birds) are entering the playoffs playing as well as any team in football -- peaking at the right time -- and set to compete against what is overall a pretty weak corps of playoff competitors.

woo hoo!

some thoughts:

- i love the addition of the QB sneak to the offensive repertoire (finally). just the threat of it makes a big difference in how the defense has to game plan in short yardage.

- many thanks go to the oakland raiders for knocking off the jon gruden coached buccaneers. for all of you eagles fans out there hoping to dump big red so we can grab gruden, please try to remember that everything you find frustrating about andy reid's philosophy and offense you'll get double with grudog

- i don't think this game impacts whether mcnabb is back or not -- if the eagles don't win the superbowl, i believe they'll trade mcnabb while his stock is still high -- but i do think it does impact the fate of reid. if they lost today, i think it's possible that banner/lurie would have taken personnel decision-making away from reid (which is what i'm hoping for and will explain when i finally get around to posting part three of where do we go from here). reid's coming back in full force folks, get used to the idea and learn to live with it.

- how good can this defense be? it's small, but as we saw today, if they play with the lead they can be simply devastating.

- i know andy's always talking about being able to "throw fastballs", but this team sure does have a lot of pass rushers. cole, howard, abiamiri, clemons and can all get to the qb pretty quickly. the single biggest reason the giants won the superbowl last season is because of their ability to generate passrush with their line. i'm definitely not suggesting that his crew is even worth comparing to strahan, umenyiora, et al, but they definitely seem to be peaking at the right time.

- samuel seems to be getting some heat, but i don't get it. i think he's playing as well (or better) than any corner i've seen on the birds since i've been watching. his hands may not be as good, but from what i saw this season, he's in better position against receivers when the ball arrives more consistently than eric allen or troy vincent were. the guy is damn good, and the difference between samuel and sheppard is much bigger than i expected coming into the season.

- how good can quinton mikell be? coming into this season, i was very worried about the future of the safety position (post-dawkins), but with mikell playing this well and as much promise as demps has shown, seems like the safety position is stocked pretty well looking forward.

- did dawkins play himself into another contract with his pro-bowl season? i think it's possible, but i doubt it unless he's willing to take a "below market" contract. of all the players that have played for andy reid, i believe dawkins is far and away the best one. however, he's not the player he once was, and while he can still create some chaos when he's in attack mode, the eagles rarely leave him in single coverage anymore. he's not the do-everything superman he once was, and i highly doubt the eagles will give him another big contract. i think the emergence of mikell and the development of demps plays a big factor here as well.

- chris gocong is starting to get it. i've been surprised at how patient jim johnson has been with him (usually by now he'd be calling the guy out in the press ala gaither, darwin walker, trent cole early in his career), but jj must continue to see potential in him and i think we're starting to see why they continue to give him some rope. there have been some plays that gocong has made over the last few games that really made him stand out to me. two examples: 1) i don't recall the game situation, but in the giants game, gocong took on brandon jacobs solo, stopped him dead, picked him up off the ground and spun around threw him about two yards backwards. it sticks in my mind because i rarely see jacobs stopped in his tracks by one guy let alone manhandled the way he was. 2) in the cleveland game, cleveland ran some sort of misdirection off the wildcat formation with their punt returner cribbs taking the snap. the entire defense flowed left, while cribbs ended up going to the defense's right with a wide open field. gocong was lined up on the other side of the field and somehow ran all the way across against the flow of traffic and caught cribbs from behind keeping it to something like a 12 yard gain.

i'm excited as heck for the playoffs and i definitely don't want to put the cart before the horse, but (knocking on wood) the eagles match up pretty well against the other teams in the playoffs.

2005 steelers, 2007 giants, why not us?

Eagles Fans Truly "Legendary"

eagles fans pelting of santa claus with snowballs in 1968 is such an oft referenced story that it has literally reached urban legend status. snopes.com (urban legend de-bunking site) now has an article providing all of the facts you'd ever want to know about that defining moment for eagles nation.

Philadelphia's nickname may be "The City of Brotherly Love," but sports fans in that metropolis are notorious for a lack of fraternal affection: According to reputation, Philadelphia fans love a winner (who doesn't?) but will mercilessly turn on any players or team that don't live up to expectations, no matter how brilliant their past performances. No single image sums up that reputation more succinctly than the claim (as expressed in the examples cited above) that fans in Philadelphia once booed and pelted with snowballs that most inoffensive, beloved, and benevolent of figures, Santa Claus himself. The claim is true, although the potentially mitigating circumstances under which the incident occurred typically go unmentioned.

at least snopes bothered to give you the whole story instead of a sensationalized soundbite

Game 14 Thoughts

i walked into last night's game thinking that i wouldn't be satisfied unless the birds won by 20 points... and the birds delivered a 20 point win. and yet i can't help but feel a complete lack of satisfaction about last night's win. maybe my expectations are too high. maybe i'm seeking perfection where it's unreasonable to seek. i can't tell exactly, but the only thing i can really say is that i find this team maddening. simply maddening.

i should probably be smacked for being underwhelmed about a 30-10 victory. really. the eagles covered the 14 point line, and even before you consider style points, 20 point victories are pretty rare in the nfl.

so i should have no basis for being disappointed about a 20 point victory -- the exact margin of victory i was seeking prior to the game -- and yet i am.

why am i disappointed? i can't identify one single factor that's driving this, but here are a few thinking points:

- due to some combination of injuries, lack of talent, poor coaching the browns were clearly not in a league with the birds last night. while the game was never in doubt at any point, the birds never really put them away. there was no kill shot. they built a big lead, but it was workmanlike and took more effort than it should have. the birds could, and more importantly, should have put the brown away in the first half. but didn't.

- donovan mcnabb looked like the best QB in the league last night between the 20s. he was throwing darts into very tight spots last night. as soon as the team crossed the 20, not so much? why does this happen? is it donovan? is it the playcalling? is it the o-line?

brian burke, who runs the advanced nfl stats blog, thinks that differences in QB red zone performance vs. non-redzone performance are random... and if you look, mcnabb underperformed in the red zone in 2007, but his 2008 red zone stats are pretty consistent with other parts of the field.

- the eagles had two turnovers at the goal line. two turnovers at the goal line against the woebegone browns. this is not an insignificant thing. why did the eagles call a fake wildcat pass? it was a completely unnecessary play. sometimes it's like andy can't help himself. most people complain that he is not creative enough. in fact he is too creative! just play football. why take risks when the risks are unnecessary?

- crossing the goal line. what is it with players on this team dumping the ball before crossing the goal line? there needs to be accountability. they wouldn't get away with this crap if belicheat was the coach.

the bottom line is the bottom line, and yes, this was a win, a dominant win even. however, it didn't leave me with a feeling that all is well. possibly the biggest reason why that disappoints me is that there is no great team in the nfl this year. if they could just get their heads on straight, why couldn't this eagles team be the one that gets hot at the right time -- ala 2005 steelers and 2007 giants?

other thoughts:

- what did the replays look like on the westbrook dive at the end of the first half? did the ball cross the plane? why was there no review? it looked like the eagles were expecting the ref to stop the clock for a review that never came.

- the o-line pass protected incredibly well last night. best i've seen all season. i'm sure a lot had to do with the opposition, but if they can protect like that moving forward, this team can go very far.

School Board Shenanigans?

this isn't about sports, but it's what has been occupying my time and energy recently

let's pretend that there was a school district somewhere that was thinking about taking all of the children who live within a one-mile radius around a school and bussing those children to another school several miles away so that other children could be bussed in to attend in their place. can anyone envision a scenario where this makes logical sense (unless you're one of those people working to displace)? i sure can't.

yet that is exactly what is happening in Lower Merion, where the school board is not only thinking about doing this, they actually proposed a redistricting plan that would essentially take a community of walkers and turn them into bus riders.

“Why would they do this?” you might ask. “What’s the logic behind a move like that?”

“Is it for fairness?” – not really the children involved already face the longest commute times for both elementary and middle school to schools other than the ones to which they are closest

“Is it for environmental reasons?” – i’m not sure, but i suspect converting 200 walkers into bus riders isn’t exactly what I’d call “green”

“Is there a cost savings?” – doubtful as the district will now have to add bus capacity to service those 200 additional riders

“Why would they do it then?”

there are a number of factors involved (political, demographic, wealth), but unfortunately logic and fairness seem to be lacking. the bottom line is that the district decided that adding 10 minutes to the commute of one community (the wealthier one where the children already walk to elementary school and attend their closest middle school) was more burdensome than turning over another community (the less well-to-do one that chooses and values its walking lifestyle and whose children already face the longest commutes for both elementary and middle schools) and forcing them onto a bus.

shame on you, Lower Merion school board. shame on you.

Where Do We Go From Here? part 2

feedback from part 1:

On the flip side, I don't believe that only "football people" like Andy Reid, John Madden, and Howard Eskin know the real score. I used to believe in experts and insiders when I was really young. Life teaches otherwise. At some point you realize that we're all pretty clueless deep inside.

Is it really that difficult TMG? Really? None of us can postulate logically why this team is underachieving? God bless your eternal optimism, but 5-4-1 ain't good, it's average, which is exactly what type of team they have.

wow, there is a lot packed into these two paragraphs.

1. Re: "football people" and whether or not we can postulate logically why this team is underachieving.
   
   my statement that we can't truly identify the real problems as outsiders isn't based on our lack of football knowledge or that the football insiders are the only ones who can make a valid assessment. it's more fundamental than that. as outsiders, we don't know what the plan for each play was, so it's simply speculation (or postulation as bumble notes) about what the true nature of the breakdown is. let's take two examples:
   
   - on a play earlier in the year, jason witten catches a pass down the seam for a touchdown with brian dawkins trailing. after watching the play live and on replays, it sure looked to me like dawkins should have been responsible for witten and looked slow and tenative in reacting to witten's route. subsequent interviews by dawkins and JJ indicated that dawkins was covering for a teammate who had blown his assignment. so what was the real breakdown there? was it what we saw as outsiders? was it what was revealed in the interviews? were the interviews intended to shield a once great player on the downside from critcism?
   
   - on a critical third down a few games ago, the eagles faced 3rd and about 9 yards. mcnabb dropped back to pass and threw short to a receiver for a gain of about 7 yards, forcing a punt. whose fault was that? was the play designed to throw short, counting on deeper routes to clear out the middle allowing the receiver to gain the extra yardage after the catch? was the original intended receiver covered forcing donovan to check down? did donovan make a terrible read and throw to the wrong guy? was the play call predicted by the defensive coordinator?
   
   i don't doubt that we can all identify when a team is playing well or when they aren't and i don't doubt that we can objectively or subjectively look at players and evaluate whether or not they can play. i do doubt that we can identify what the real micro problems are regarding things like: playcalling, assignment breakdowns, and game tactics.
   
   what we can evaluate effectively are macro problems: team consistency, in-game strategy, time management, and player development.
   
   ed is right that insiders aren't the only ones who are capable of assessing properly, however, it is often true that insiders are the only ones who possess all the information necessary to make a valid assessment.



2. Re: believing in experts. i tend to disagree. there definitely are experts in the world who know what they're talking about. what undermines the notion of experts is the fact that some/most people who hold a title or position that would classify them as an expert, aren't truly experts. truly being an expert means you have a combination of training, experience, and critical thinking ability that enables you to accomplish things that most people couldn't even dream of doing -- in the world of sports/medicine, i consider james andrews (the ACL doctor) to be one of those people. most doctors, football coaches, college professors, etc. have training and experience, but most also do not combine it with enough critical thinking ability to be true experts.



3. Re: 5-4-1. i didn't say that 5-4-1 was good. my statements were -- "5-4-1 is not terrible" and "they are close to being a good team". i think both of those statements are true simply because the football team has a winning record. i'm not disagreeing that the team is playing like sh*t, but doesn't the fact that they're playing like sh*t and they still have a winning record indicate something? you can't have a winning record and have: a terrible coach, a terrible defense, a terrible staff, a terrible QB, a terrible o-line, a terrible d-line, and terrible/injured running backs. something has to be going right. right? i mean take emotion out of it. if you take 5-4-1 at face value, you'd say that's a team in the upper part of the middle of the league. if you add the context that the team is like terribly, you'd probably lay the "underachieving" label on them. so my point is really, that from an objective standpoint (taking my dislike for the worst coast offense and finesse football out of it), that the eagles continue to be close a good football team and the stats indicate a potential upside exists.

with that context in mind, i think i've come to this conclusion about the eagles (and it runs counter to my previous opinion on andy as a drafter, but is in-line with some of the other comments).

it's all the talent. this team simply does not have enough talent across the board and that lays on the head of andy reid the GM... (part 3 coming, i'm breaking this up for time availability reasons, not as an attempt to be dramatic)

BTW - $10 tickets for sixers games in november and december. i'm heading down to tonight's game with my son.

Where Do We Go From Here? part 1

eagles nation is all riled up. everyone has opinions on what needs to be done to "fix" the problems and make the eagles a contender again, and while that is cathartic, none of us really have any clue what the real problems are. i have my own opinions, but i think a productive start to thinking about next steps is first reviewing the situation -- as always, i'll try to set aside the fact that i hate the worst coast offense and andy reid's finesse approach to football and stick to facts.

the eagles are 5-4-1 and they play in the toughest division in football. while i am horribly disappointed that they got held down and *ssraped by the giants and then threw up another clunker against the horrible bengals, their record right now is not terrible. repeat, 5-4-1 is not terrible. it's terrible only in relation to the expectation that people had coming into this season -- that the eagles would be very good and a likely playoff team.

statistically, the eagles breakdown like this:

- total offense - 6th
- points scored - 6th
- penalties committed - 6th (interesting to note the giants are terrible here... if you ain't cheatin' you ain't tryin' at work perhaps?)
- penalty yards - 11th
- turnover diff - 14th
- third down pct - 24th

- total defense - 7th
- points against - 8th
- penalties against - 16th
- penalty yards against - 23rd
- third down pct - 4th

- total DVOA - 3rd
- offensive DVOA - 11th
- pass offense - 10th
- rush offense - 19th
- yards per drive - 14th
- points per drive - 7th
- TDs per drive - 10th
- INTs per dirve - 9th
- defensive DVOA - 5th
- pass defense - 9th
- rush defense - 3rd
- yards per drive - 5th
- ST DVOA - 18th
- QB - 7th/7th
- RB - 18th/19th
- WR - 22nd/2nd (baskett)
- TE - 15th/3rd (celek)
- OL - run blocking 21st, pass blocking 8th
- DL - run stuffing 8th, pass rushing 3rd

- nfl efficiency - 1st

ok, so the eagles offense stinks on 3rd down, the wideouts suck, and the o-line can't run block. we knew all those things already, but overall, this is the resume of the pretty good team. (also, before people start latching onto it, 3rd down success rate does not tend to correlate highly year to year. last year, the eagles were top 10 in 3rd down conversion pct).

so what does this tell us? by itself, not much unfortunately. one thing it does show is why the eagles think they're pretty close to being a good team -- it seems that they are. so why does their record continue to lag behind their stats? i have a couple of theories...

Game 10 Thoughts

aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

Ready for End of Andy Reid Era

is andy reid a bad coach? looking at it objectively, the fact that he has a .620 winning percentage after 9+ seasons seems to indicate no. the fact that many of us consider this 5-4 team a failure also indicates no. expectations are high for big red, and rightfully so -- he's set his own bar pretty high.

he makes some head scratching mistakes and isn't a dynamic thinker, but in order to compile the record he has, he's done more good things than bad. no, the question is not whether andy reid is a good coach or a bad coach -- he is a good coach.

discussing that issue takes the focus away from the real issue --andy reid is fundamentally not a good match for this team or for this fanbase or me. i've written plenty of times about my dislike of the worst coast offense, but it goes even beyond that. this is a finesse team, built with finesse players on both sides of the ball. losing is one thing, getting embarrassingly manhandled several times a season is a completely different beast. i can't stand a team that gets physically overmatched.

why is the team built like it is? why is this big red's philosophy? it almost seems like the andy reid/jim johnson combo is trying to build artificial handicaps for themselves. andy reid is a good evaluator of talent (as we've discussed here, here, here, here, and here), but i'm really starting to think that he believes that size is not a talent.

many sports have weight classes. want to know why? because a good big guy always beats a good little guy. a good big guy probably beats a great little guy. in order for the little guy to win, he has to be much better than the big guy. it's a fact of life. why then do the eagles insist on building a middleweight team to compete for the heavyweight title?

i touched on it a bit in my game 9 thoughts, but here are some comparisons:

Position	Eagles	Giants	Redskins	Cowboys
RB	5-10 / 203	6-4 / 264	5-11 / 223	6-0 / 221
WR	6-0 / 186	6-5 / 232	5-10 / 200	6-3 / 218
WR	5-10 / 175	6-3 / 203	5-10 / 190	6-3 / 220
TE	6-3 / 258	6-6 / 253	6-3 / 249	6-5 / 266
DE	6-3 / 270	6-5 / 274	6-4 / 252	6-7 / 299
DE	6-2 / 250	6-5 / 265	6-4 / 266	6-4 / 305
DT	6-0 / 292	6-4 / 306	6-4 / 320	6-3 / 300
DT	6-2 / 306	6-4 / 317	6-3 / 311	6-4 / 298
S	6-0 / 210	6-1 / 215	6-2 / 213	6-2 / 206
S	5-10 / 203	6-2 / 210	6-0 / 200	6-5 / 208

these are taken from each team's official website. i've listed some of the positions that stick out to me, i'm not omitting positions that run counter to my point, just trying to keep the list manageable.

the eagles field the smallest player at their position almost across the board -- and several of the eagles players are overstated. i know this is very common in professional sports, but the eagles have more reason to do it than others because they field midgets all over the field. goodness knows i enjoy watching midgets as much as the next guy, but not on my professional football team! i've highlighted in red the positions where guys are listed bigger than they appear or have mysteriously grown an inch or two in their 20s and 30s.

i know that the eagles believe that speed wins games, but why can't they get full sized fast guys? seriously, did the giants look any slower than the eagles last night? (though who could tell because our guys were on their backs all game).

i'm ready for the end of the andy reid football era not because he is a bad coach, but because his philosophy and style are making me start to lose interest in professional football. with andy reid, winning is the only enjoyment you get out of watching a game. by design, the fans get nothing else.

andy doesn't let you in on what he's thinking. andy doesn't address reasons why things are happening. andy chooses to play the infernal worst coast offense. andy chooses to field a team giving up inches and pounds at almost every position on the field.

those are all his choices and are his choices to make. however, he has to lie in the bed that he makes. if he's going to choose to build a boring team and display a boring public persona, he must understand that winning and losing will be the only criteria. you can get away with some extra losses if you are entertaining. by design, andy's teams cannot.

i'm not ready to watch another rebuilding effort -- and that is where we are headed with the eagles loading up for the kevin kolb era -- led by andy reid. i can't take it anymore.

his teams lack size and physicality on both sides of the ball -- even his superbowl team was a finesse team. his offense bores me to death. i'm ready to move on -- and remember, this is coming from a fan who is constantly accused of being a reid apologist. i'm ready to move on.

Game 9 Thoughts

we need to discuss coaching and the andy reid era in general, but i'll separate that into its own post.

this one will be solely devoted to the horrible slow death we watched again last night. redskins, giants, pretty much any power running team. the only reason the eagles managed to stay in that game is because of mcnabb. his final numbers weren't terrific, completing less than 50% of his passes, but those were also skewed (once again, sigh) by the number of hideous drops. mcnabb made plays to try to win this game and almost no one else on the team did. if you swapped the QBs, this would have been a blowout win for the giants. mcnabb in his prime with a real running game would have been scary.

- what the fudge jj? against dallas, you leave brian dawkins in single coverage against me-o at the goal line. slant -> TD. last night, you leave dawk in single coverage against burress. slant -> TD.

- bunkley was getting pushed around again last night, but he definitely gave it all he had. i saw pretty consistent effort from him. unfortunately, he's our "big" defensive tackle where on most teams, he'd be the small, quick guy.

- brian westbrook is a spectacular player, but not a great one. great running backs get you consistent yards, especially after first contact. westbrook has gotten bigger and stronger, but he does not gain significant yardage after first contact. since you can stand him up and stop him in his tracks once you get one hand on him, he's not suited to being an every down back. what is leroy hoard doing these days?

- trent cole was literally picked up and thrown to the ground on the third and long play where the eagles forced the first giants punt of the night. literally picked up and thrown to the ground. not by a double team. by one guy. not just knocked off his feet. picked 12-18 inches off the ground and thrown down on his side.

- their starting wideouts are 6-5 and 6-3. our starting wideouts are 5-9 and 5-11. that's not why we lost, but does anyone see a running theme here?

- chris gocong has physical tools, but is still too tentative and doesn't play "downhill". he runs into tackles rather than running through tackles. by now he should be getting more comfortable in this defense. where is the high motor guy we saw in his college films? high motor defensive end becomes tenative linebacker, not a surprise. the giants moved kiwanuka back to d-line as an injury replacement, but also because he sucked as a linebacker.

- this isn't why they lost the game, but in a key sequence of plays. the manning over the los pass was overturned (for people who saw this on TV, was there really indisputable evidence he was behind the line?) , demps was facemasked on the ensuing kickoff but didn't get the call, and jacobs wasn't facemasked on the next possession but that was called.

- anyone else notice that cole hamels came out wearing an aj feeley jersey? burrell came out wearing 5, which makes sense, but hamels chooses 14 over 36 or 20? great pitcher, odd guy.

Game 8 Thoughts

a slow start to the game, which wasn't a complete surprise considering next week's measuring stick game against the division leading giants. it took a while for the team to get in sync, but once they did, the game was never in doubt.

- mcnabb's day in a nutshell -- terrible start, hot middle, conservative end. he's streaky, we all know that, but westbrook or no westbrook, if mcnabb isn't on, the offense goes 3 and out. he ended the day 28/43 for 349 with 2 TDs and 1 INT, which isn't shabby at all, but it definitely could have been better. still, if there is such a thing, i'd rather have him save his A game for the hated giants.

- dawkins looked old and awkward trying to tackle koren robinson, but ended up with a solid game overall, breaking up a couple of passes and making some hits. he can still make plays when he gets there in time.

- middle of o-line still getting stuffed on short yardage

- i don't want to kick him while he's down after taking one for the team, but brent celek made a number of catches yesterday that lj probably would not have made. in addition, celek protects the ball better, so i didn't get the usual lj smith agita when celek turned around ran downfield. i don't know how good he's going to get, but honestly, he is already better than littlejohn ever was.

H-U-G-E game looming against the giants folks. the birds opened up as a 3 point favorite but it seems like people are already betting the giants. the line hasn't moved, but the eagles -3 is listing at +105 on sportsbook.com. mid-season home game. put up or shut up time birds!

Various Thoughts on Phillies

don't have a lot of time today, so i'll just throw out some things kicking around in my head

- charlie manuel -- i think his ability to bench rollins (reigning league MVP) without tearing apart the team or losing rollins was a significant contribution to this championship. the day he pulled that move off, he won me over as a fan forever. how many other managers could have pulled that off? bobby cox? maybe torre? certainly not bowa or leyland. in addition, virtually every button he pushed in the playoffs was the right one. it was uncanny.

- pat gillick -- i took some heat last season when i mentioned that gillick is one of the biggest reasons why i got my love of baseball back (that he had turned a sour and grumpy team into a team that genuinely enjoyed each other and the game), and i stand by that. he may not have made a ton of big ticket moves during his time here, but boy did he fill the roster with guys who got the job done.

- head wade -- head is going to get some credit for the nucleus of this team, but there is no chance that the phillies would have one a series if head was still the GM. first of all, head wouldn't have been in houston to give away brad lidge for nothing. second, there is no way that head would have given away bobby abreu for nothing (which i still maintain was critical to changing the team personality). third, head could never have assembled this pitching staff, and pitching is the biggest reason why the phillies won this title.

- jamie moyer -- instrumental to helping cole reach his potential. another move head would likely not have made.

- cole hamels -- did cole mention that his wife just turned 30? cole is what, 24? is there a story there? was she his babysitter as a kid or something?

- jimmy rollins -- thank you to whoever got jimmy to stop swinging for the fences every at bat. big difference between falling off balance and over home plate after every swing and his balanced line drive swing.

- this core is young enough that they should be contenders for 4-5 more seasons!

- hopefully this opens the floodgates and some of the other teams start winning. the 1980 phillies were part of the golden age of philadelphia sports. dare we hope for the start of another golden age? am i being greedy?

- the heads up play by chase utley should go down as one of the greatest postseason defensive plays ever

wow. i can't stop smiling.

At Last Our Long Regional Nightmare is Over!

philadelphia phillies -- 2008 world series champions

feels pretty good to say.

Pinch Me

up 3 games to 1 with hamels coming up? is this really happening?

Jamie Moyer!

the combination of a clutch start by jamie moyer and some really good fortune (perfect umpire assignment and a miraculous fly-out that was a home run off the bat) has the phillies leading two games to one in the world series. wow!

how is it possible that they're leading this series when the team is 1 for 953 with runners in scoring position with the 1 being an infield single that didn't actually score a run? that has to be a good sign, right? it can't continue forever.

ryan howard finally starting to look like he's getting his timing back.

jimmy rollins finally starting to take good swings and no longer taking huge off-balance hacks.

carlos ruiz staking an early claim for world series mvp.

keeping my fingers crossed, but things are looking ok so far. i mean, the phillies haven't even played well yet.

i'm not even that upset by the bad call on the crawford bunt because i feel like it only evened out the fact that the rays didn't score two on the longoria non-homer. how the heck did that ball not go out of the park?

three am and i'm too wired to sleep... go phillies!

World Series!

huge game tonight. if the phillies are to win this series, i believe hamels must win tonight's game. it feels odd to say that considering it's only the first game of the series, but the nights that hamels pitches will be the only games of the series where the phillies have the better starter on the mound. (you could argue that myers is more talented than shields, but he certainly hasn't pitched better than shields).

i think the phillies definitely have a shot at this, but they have to get off to a good start tonight.

go phillies!

NFL Trades

i wasn't expecting them to get him, but i can't help but be disappointed that the eagles weren't able to/chose not to add tony gonzalez to the roster. i'm not sure what really happened given that i've heard a number of conflicting reports:

- the chiefs were never really going to trade him and all the teams that inquired were never given specific demands

- the chiefs were asking for a 3rd and teams were offering 4th and 5th round picks

- the chiefs were asking for a 2nd rounder

but i'd surely have paid a second or third for gonzalez (especially given that the birds have an extra first round pick next season). sigh.

i'm not sure what the decision point here was, but i think these are some potential lines of thought:

1) the eagles consider themselves to be championship contenders already and didn't feel that gonzalez was an upgrade over littlejohn

2) the eagles do not consider themselves to be championship contenders given how the roster is shaping up this season so are looking ahead to building around kolb with all the extra picks next season

3) the eagles do not consider themselves to be championship contenders with the roster as constructed but also don't think that gonzalez will be enough to push them over the top

4) the eagles thought gonzalez would be an upgrade but the asking price was way too high

it is not possible that the eagles are thinking that they are championship contenders based on the way the season has played out so far. certainly, i think they can be among the handful of good teams in the league if they "play to their potential", but they clearly have a weakness at tight end and gonzalez is both a better blocker and receiver than anyone on their roster.

so i'm thinking it has to be one of the last three and i'm really starting to think that number 2 is what is really going on. the way the cowboys won the superbowls under jimmy johnson was to stock up a ton of high draft picks and have them all grow up together around a young QB.

i think it's definitely possible that andy's been gearing up the birds for the post-mcnabb era and trading for an almost done gonzalez doesn't fit into that plan.

-------

regarding the cowboys trade for williams, my reaction is... meh.

a) williams is only a good wideout. he's not a true number 1 and certainly not a difference maker

b) this is not the NBA where the team that gets the single best player wins every trade. in the NFL teams that trade multiple picks for a single player generally lose out on that trade.

c) i think the biggest outcome of this trade is that the cowboys look to be ready to cut bait on me-o

Game 6 Thoughts

the eagles keep the season alive with a come from behind win over a team they should have dominated. meh.

- special teams are killing this team, and it's not just the eagles inability to make field goals (or keep other teams from scoring TDs during your field goal attempts). it's the insanely bad luck the birds have had with other teams kicking 50+ and 60+ yard field goals against them. is there such a thing as field goal defense? if so, the birds have had historically bad field goal defense the last few seasons.

- defense played well at the end of the game, but got generally pushed around for most of it. blech. what happened to brodrick bunkley? he's the single biggest liability on defense right now. he's terrible and getting pushed around like a little girl. he is not the same player he was last season.

- mcnabb played pretty well, all things considered. he had a nice 2 minute drive at the end of the first half that he won't get credit for because of the block for TD. threw a couple of TDs, one on a nice fade to hank baskett. threw one pick that people seem to be blaming on LJ, but he had another one that patrick willis dropped, so i'm not absolving him.

- the eagles lead the league in drops. again. i really don't think you can discount the negative impact that mr. drop has on this offense. every good thing reggie brown does is more than negated by how inconsistently he catches the ball. i'd really, really, really, really like to see baskett ahead of him on the depth chart.

- kudos to correll buckhalter who had a heck of a game. he played a huge part in this win, but i think one play in particular highlights the difference between buck and westbrook. on the last play of the first quarter, the birds threw a screen to buckhalter to the right with herremans and max-jean leading the way. max-jean made a nice cut block and completely eliminated the defender. at this point buckhalter turned on the jets and accelerated past herremans, ultimately being tackled for a 25 yard gain. i believe westbrook would have gained significantly more yardage or possibly have scored on this play because he'd have slowed down and gotten behind todd instead of zooming past him. so a net positive play, but one that highlights some of buckhalter's shortcomings -- lack of patience and having only one gear.

- gcobb is reporting that the eagles are one of the teams interested in tony gonzalez. should we dare to dream?

Same As It Ever Was

apparently, the eagles lead the nfl in drops, no surprise. so far, the offense looks much better than they have the last few weeks. some of it i'm sure is that the niners defense isn't as good as the bears and redskins.

however, some of it is that reggie brown is not on the field.

Game 5 Thoughts

yuck! what a waste of a day. trapped in a stadium watching your team get completely manhandled by the other team. have we been watching this game on repeat basically for our whole lives?

the game was won and lost at the line of scrimmage. their lines dominated our lines. it's as simple as that. can't win if you can't block. can't win if you're getting blocked.

better wideouts, better rbs, better qbs might have helped, but wouldn't have won the game. the redskins won today because they had vastly better lines on both sides of the ball. it was the exact same reason why they won last week against the cowboys. i thought that last week's game was a bit of an aberration for the redskins based on emotion, but there was no emotion yesterday. just a consistent ass kicking for the whole game.

what especially sucked yesterday was that the skins play the type of offense i enjoy the most -- one based on power running to set up the pass. no trickery. no dink and dunk passing. no bs complexity opening room for more mistakes. just consistent physical football. power sweep left. power sweep right. power runs up the middle. tic tac toe.

i heard people bitching on the way out of the stadium that andy reid isn't creative enough. that's 100% wrong. andy reid is too creative. too many plays on his card. too many mix and match options in the worst coast offense. too many fancy frills in his finesse approach to offense. the redskins undressed the eagles not because their coaches were better or they out-thought the eagles. the redskins won because they were physically superior all game. they had better players on both lines of scrimmage.

on offense -- is it possible that shawn andrews is the most important player on the team? this team can't do anything on the ground when andrews is out.

on defense -- did anyone have a worse game than brodrick bunkley? i swear i saw a redskins o-lineman pick him up and eat him like he was a piece of gravy soaked bread. he was being pushed 2-3 yards downfield on every play i watched him.

rather than list out the gigantic list of awful things the eagles did yesterday, i decided to try to keep things positive. so here are some things that are more enjoyable than being an eagles fan:

- eating tacks for breakfast
- dropping bowling balls repeatedly on your feet
- falling down the stairs and landing head first in a tub of legos
- drinking chewing tobacco spit
- getting shot in the eye with a nail gun
- getting your hand stuck in the garbage disposal while it's on

at least i got to listen to the phils on the radio.

Game 4 Thoughts

egad, what a hideous loss. the birds threw away an eminently winnable game tonight. they were the better team, but some key mistakes and a slow start by the defense left the eagles in catch up mode all night. they would have completed the comeback if not for the o-line's inability to gain that last yard on the ground.

yes, akers missed the kicks. yes, the defense had a terrible first half and allowed a first down at the end. yes, the eagles were generally sloppy all night. you simply have to score from the 1. it is unacceptable to not score there. gah!

the play of the game was the stop on buckhalter at the goal line. big red finally gave everyone what they've been craving by running the ball all four times. my question is why andy never calls a sneak. QB SNEAK! why no f-ing QB SNEAK! why give the defense time to penetrate? QB SNEAK! i want to stab myself in the eye with a sharp stick. QB SNEAK!!!!!!

not having westbrook hurt, but the game was the eagles to lose and lose they did.

some thoughts and observations:

- the defense played well in the second half, but they absolutely sucked in the first half. 3 TD passes by kyle orton? completely unacceptable and it could have been much worse. the bears offense missed two other big plays by inches -- forte down the sideline with gaither trailing and hester on a deep cross with sheppard trailing. jj seemed to make adjustments at the half as the birds played much better, but they had to make that stop on 3rd and 4 at the 6 and they came up very small. gah! how did they lose this freaking game?

- what was with the field tonight? i haven't seen so much slipping in a long time -- mcnabb slipped on his double pump early in the game, reggie brown slipped on a cut in the first quarter, jackson may have slipped a little on his muffed punt, booker slipped on a cut during a run in the second half, avant slipped on a catch late in the game

- buckhalter did a fine job in replacing westbrook. he didn't have any big plays, but he was more than adequate in there.

- akers has been a below average kicker for 3 seasons. so the question that pops into my head now. was akers a product of koy's perfect holds or is sav rocca just not cutting it as a holder? seems like the former rather than the later. if akers hit either of the two kicks he missed tonight, the birds could have kicked a field goal for the lead.

- the linebackers had an up and down day -- pretty good against the run and when attacking the line and pretty bad in coverage. still, they made a number of positive plays tonight. some that stick out to me: drop forte for a 2 yard loss sweeping right when bradley jumps over garza and gocong takes on and slides around kruetz, gaither made a couple of tackles behind the line but the best one was at the goal line when he shed mckie and stuffed forte in the hole, gocong running hester out of bounds at the 4

- hank baskett deserves to start. this was probably the best defense that the eagles have faced so far this year, but reggie brown dropped 3 catchable balls tonight. baskett has better hands and makes plays.

- why didn't the eagles get to keep the ball on the roughing the kicker call? didn't the nfl pass a rule last season indicating that a personal foul penalty overrides any offsetting penalties of lesser yardage? seems like the eagles should have gone back on offense rather than punting.

- brent celek made a play tonight that may have been better than any lj has made during his career. celek catches a pass on a short out pattern, absorbs a hit from tillman, throws him aside and rumbles for 5-6 more yards... while protecting the ball against his body the whole time. i like it!

- desean jackson played well early in the game, but he disappeared completely once he lost his swagger. that muff really seemed to affect him. some key mistakes by desean today: the muff, catching a punt on the 5 rather than letting it bounce for a touchback, not catching a punt on the 20 letting it bounce to the 3. he's got to keep his head in the game after a mistake.

- mcnabb had an ok game. he showed some very nice touch on screen passes tonight and made an unbelievable throw over urlacher for the first TD. the pick may have been jackson's fault. at least that's what interaction between mcnabb and jackson seemed like.

- i love when bunkley gets down in a four point stance, it's not something you see too often in the pros

- madden and michaels went on and on about olsen TD, but it seemed like a clear touchdown to me. i wouldn't have challenged that either.

it's going to be a terrible week. blech!

Game 3 Thoughts

how fragile is winning and losing in the nfl these days?

the patriots go from undefeated/"greatest team ever" status to getting blown out by the dolphins -- after losing one player.

the eagles go from perennial contender to a mediocre, middle of the pack kind of team during a 3 year period where their QB was dealing with various injuries.

the colts look worse than they have in years, seemingly because their QB spent the offseason dealing with an infection in his knee.

it's certainly not like it was in the 80's -- when joe gibbs treated QB like a mix and match game --- it's a QB driven league now and having a healthy QB is critical to winning.

well, the season almost ended for us on consecutive plays (last play of the 1st quarter and first play of the 2nd quarter) when mcnabb and westbrook were injured. fortunately, the mcnabb appears to be a bruised sternum (like the one he got in atlanta to start the 2005 season and kick off his 4 year injury sabbatical). unfortunately, his injury was serious enough to take him out of action for part of the game and definitely seemed to hamper his throws in the 2nd half. hopefully it's not something that lingers and affects him all season.

we don't know the severity of westbrook's injury, but i think it could be a positive thing if the eagles don't try to rush him back. the birds are past the toughest part of their schedule already and have the easiest schedule in the nfl from this point forward. i'd like to see them be ultra-conservative with westbrook and keep him out until he is completely healthy. the eagles can get themselves into the playoffs without westbrook, but we absolutely, positively need him to be healthy for the playoffs.

some thoughts about the game:

- the defense was unbelieveable today. i've seen plenty of steelers games (having lived in pgh for 8 years), but have never seen a pittsburgh o-line manhandled like they were today (and despite the loss of alan faneca, this is supposed to be a good one). the defensive line dominated the run game and jj sent the defense into full-time attack mode. wow. by the end of the game, i was feeling a little bad for ben roethlisberger. it reminded me of the aikman 12 sack game and could have easily eclipsed 12 sacks with a less mobile QB as the target.

- how about the ball skills of asante samuel? we haven't had a cornerback who could make a play like that on the dead run since probably eric allen.

- i hate it when westbrook submarines into a pile. as often as not, he takes out the legs of one of his own linemen (and is exactly the kind of play on which shawn andrews broke his leg during his rookie season).

- great start to the game by mcnabb, unbelievably sharp. converting 3rd and longs, making lots of stick throws and a couple of long touch throws, making good decisions. threw a bad interception when he got hit by timmons as he was throwing that gave the steelers 3 points at the end of the first half.

- yikes is tony hunt having a rough time in the pros. he looks shaky and unsure of himself.

- stewart bradley took one hellacious block on a roethlisberger scramble to the right. reminded me of the keith byars/pepper johnson block

- newsflash -- lj smith stinks. one thing i noticed was that it seemed like hank baskett ran many of the routes you'd typically see a TE run for much of the game.

Hooray for Professional Journalists

while i was sitting in dallas yesterday taking my lumps from one of my cowboy fan clients, the staff at the daily news was digging up some actual stats on donovan's comebackability (copyright scrapplelog 2008)

here's what they found (as written in rich hoffman's column):

This year, last year and the year before, there have been six games in which McNabb found himself in the same position as on Monday night in Dallas: trailing by one score (that is, by eight points or less) and with possession of the ball in the fourth quarter.

Six times. And in three of those six games, he has left the field for the final time with the lead. That is a fine percentage, much better than the league average - not Tom Brady or John Elway, for sure, but really not bad at all.

Because he really does win his share - and deserves to win even more. Twice in the last 2 years, McNabb has engineered fourth-quarter comebacks - against Tampa Bay in 2006 and Chicago in 2007 - only to have the team lose the lead again before he could get back on the field. That knocks down his overall numbers.

Even then, he has converted comebacks 39 percent of the time. The Web site footballoutsiders.com did a 10-year study of these kinds of comebacks a little while back and determined that the NFL average was 41 percent. If you give McNabb those Tampa Bay and Chicago games, he's at 45 percent. The point is, he has the average pretty much surrounded.

He does not stink.

He is not deficient.

In comebacks, he is typical.

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo has had a much shorter career. He is at 37.5 percent so far.

The sainted Peyton Manning? He is at 41 percent for his obviously successful career.

Brady, out now with a knee injury, might be having the greatest NFL career ever. He is at an astonishing 66 percent in coming from behind in these fourth-quarter, one-score situations. He is clearly the best.

But McNabb is right there with the rest of them.

Game 2 Thoughts

the birds threw away a game they should have won, but man, what an entertaining game. even if you didn't have a rooting interest, that was the most entertaining regular season game in years. playoff intensity from the opening kick, lots of big plays on both sides, lots of huge mistakes on both sides, and one play that will forever be linked to a player.

i come away from this game both very encouraged and very concerned, and the two biggest topics today are:

1) mcnabb looked great again, and physically, he looks to be just about back to where he was 4 years ago before all the injuries started. as a passer, he looked sharp and was getting the ball out with great timing. he's going to take a lot of heat from people about the last drive, but it doesn't make sense. mcnabb is the only reason they were even in that game at all. yes, he should absolutely take heat for that stupid fake he pulled while handing the ball off, and he has admitted that he is 100% to blame for that.

i hope people don't lose sight of the fact that he only had 12 incompletions yesterday and five of them were drops. not "he should have caught that tough ball" drops. clear, hit them in the hands in stride drops. seven bad throws on 37 passes. that's not just good accuracy, that's insane accuracy. at the end of the game, the pass to lewis was well in-bounds and he took two full strides while bobbling it. during the last two drives, the dallas defense took it up a notch and the eagles offense did not respond. that's not necessarily mcnabb's fault -- you have to get protection and guys have to get open. he's not completely without blame, but to lay this loss on mcnabb just doesn't make sense. he's the only reason they were in the game at all.

2) the defense played like ass. brian dawkins is a liability. it's sad to say, and we knew it coming into the season, and he's among my favorite eagles ever, but man, he is d-u-n, done. he simply cannot play in pass coverage anymore. he's not just "not the same brian dawkins", he's a below average nfl safety. that's a big problem when your other coverage safety is sean considine.

hopefully the safety position is not going to be an achilles heel for the defense, but it very well may be. i hope demps is able to pick things up quickly, because they're going to have to get at least decent safety play for the defense to play well. all those corners are going to be useless if they can't be aggressive because the safeties stink.

-----

i think everything else pales in comparison to those two issues. if mcnabb is healthy, the eagles will score points, no doubt about it. if the offense scores 37 points, there is no way in heck that the eagles should lose the game, it's as simple as that. you can find things to nitpick donovan about just like you can about any player's performance, but to lay the blame on him (or andy) when the offense put up 37 points makes no sense to me. the defense lost that game.

... but i still leave last night with an overall positive feeling. i have not seen a better team in the nfl so far this season than the two teams that played last night. this bodes well for the season overall.

Quote of the Night

"westbrook is so short, the only place they can grab him is his facemask."

- my wife

Game 2 Preview

don't have too much time today, but did want to get this onto the record:

i believe the eagles are going to win today

some of the reasons why:

- mcnabb is healthy

- i know the cowboys went 13-3 last season, but the reality is that they haven't won sh*t. they're walking around and *more importantly* woofing like they're 3 time defending superbowl champs. it's not a tangible reason, but i feel very strongly that they're due for a rude awakening.

- jim johnson seems to have gotten a feel for how to attack romo, but more importantly, if jj wants to take away a receiver, jj takes away that receiver. previous encounters with randy moss and me-o should provide plenty of evidence.

- mcnabb is healthy

- i think desean jackson is getting a little overhyped already, but he does give the birds an additional playmaker that the cowboys need to be worried about. it may open things up for westbrook.

- terence newman probably will not play. even if he does, he'll be hampered

the player i fear tonight is felix jones. that guy is fast!

my prediction: eagles 20 - cowboys 17