Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Andy Reid: QB Genius?

The pending QB controversy (Kolb vs. Vick) got me to thinking. Is Andy Reid a QB genius? I mean how the heck did we end up with 2 quality QB starters in a league where barely half the teams can trot out a viable QB on a week to week basis.

At first blush, it's valid to say Reid lucked into this position. Vick was a quality QB for a number of years in this league so there's no reason to think he wouldn't be. Well, if that was the case then why were the Eagles only team to take a flier on him? You can't tell me it was all a character issue as there's a number of teams out there who collect problem children (ahem, OAK). And there are a number of teams who desperately needed QB help last year. So were 31 head coaches wrong or has Reid improved Vick?

Take a look back over the past 10 years and there always seems to be a competent #2. Is this luck or something more? I decided to look at the stats of all the QBs that have played for Reid and broke them down into Reid Career and Non-Reid Career numbers. For the sake of comparison, I've excluded all non-QBs from this analysis and any QBs who only played for Reid. I've also excluded McNabb as 6 games in WAS is too small of a sample size. I'll fully admit that the sample sizes for all these other guys are also quite limited, but hey. At least we've got some different numbers to debate.


Player Att Comp Yds Comp % Yds/Att TD TD % INT INT %











Non-Reid Career Koy Detmer 181 97 1011 53.6% 5.59 5 2.8% 5 2.8%
Non-Reid Career Doug Pederson 295 167 1486 56.6% 5.04 5 1.7% 10 3.4%
Non-Reid Career A.J. Feeley 346 191 1893 55.2% 5.47 11 3.2% 20 5.8%
Non-Reid Career Jeff Blake 3204 1809 21585 56.5% 6.74 133 4.2% 98 3.1%
Non-Reid Career Mike McMahon 308 135 1709 43.8% 5.55 10 3.2% 13 4.2%
Non-Reid Career Jeff Garcia 3488 2148 24228 61.6% 6.95 151 4.3% 81 2.3%
Non-Reid Career Michael Vick 1730 930 11505 53.8% 6.65 71 4.1% 52 3.0%











Reid Career Koy Detmer 173 87 933 50.3% 5.39 5 2.9% 9 5.2%
Reid Career Doug Pederson 227 119 1276 52.4% 5.62 7 3.1% 9 4.0%
Reid Career A.J. Feeley 309 181 2177 58.6% 7.05 16 5.2% 14 4.5%
Reid Career Jeff Blake 37 18 126 48.6% 3.41 1 2.7% 1 2.7%
Reid Career Mike McMahon 207 94 1158 45.4% 5.59 5 2.4% 8 3.9%
Reid Career Jeff Garcia 188 116 1309 61.7% 6.96 10 5.3% 2 1.1%
Reid Career Michael Vick 109 65 885 59.6% 8.12 7 6.4% 0 0.0%











Reid – Non-Reid Career Koy Detmer


-3.30% -0.19
0.13%
2.44%
Reid – Non-Reid Career Doug Pederson


-4.19% 0.58
1.39%
0.57%
Reid – Non-Reid Career A.J. Feeley


3.37% 1.57
2.00%
-1.25%
Reid – Non-Reid Career Jeff Blake


-7.81% -3.33
-1.45%
-0.36%
Reid – Non-Reid Career Mike McMahon


1.58% 0.05
-0.83%
-0.36%
Reid – Non-Reid Career Jeff Garcia


0.12% 0.02
0.99%
-1.26%
Reid – Non-Reid Career Michael Vick


5.88% 1.47
2.32%
-3.01%

Of the 7 QBs above, it looks like 3 were clearly better (Feeley, McMahon, Vick), 3 clearly worse (Pederson, Blake, Detmer), and Garcia virtually unchanged. Blake only had 30 more attempts after leaving PHI so you could argue that there wasn't much Reid could teach him at that point. Ditto Garcia. Pederson did better after leaving PHI, so that kinda blows that theory. Feeley and McMahon were playing for really bad teams outside of their PHI career (MIA, DET) so their numbers can be spun the other way. Detmer only hung around as long as he did because he could hold for Akers not so much for his passing acumen.

So the numbers don't seem to point one way or another. My gut tells me though that he does more with less than about anyone else out there. Or maybe it's a system thing.

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