Problem #2: Jim Johnson/Defensive Coaches

jim johnson has had a nice run as the eagles d-coordinator. his defenses have consistently finished among the best in the league in pass defense and scoring defense, and they have been exciting and aggressive. however, for me, there has always been one critical factor about JJ defenses that i don't like -- they cannot beat good quarterbacks. JJ sells out to put pressure on the QB, and in general, he has had good success with it because there aren't that many good QBs in the league (at least ones that can handle pressure anyway)... but good QBs carve his defense up. badly.

the problem i see is that JJ plays defense like one of those super aggressive internet poker players, always going all-in and putting pressure on the other guy. the problem with that strategy is that it works really well against players who aren't as good as you but it gets you in trouble against players who are better than you. when you're facing an opponent who doesn't lose his head every time you put the pressure on them, they have a good chance of getting you in the long run. similarly, JJ's defenses do great against bad QBs, but tend to struggle against QBs who aren't flustered by the blitz.

this isn't a new problem, but i've always given him the benefit of the doubt because the defense was generally successful. he probably deserves some time to fix the problems based on historical performance, but i'm actually not that optimistic that he'll get it done. i recall reading something that bill belichick said one time about how gimmick defenses and offenses can have short term success, but over the long haul they are not good because they are not fundamentally sound and other people will eventually break them down. i've never heard him comment on JJ's scheme, but i often wonder if he thinks JJ's is fundamentally sound. i kind of doubt it. if it was, i doubt good QBs would carve it up as easy as they do.

before people start killing me about how good QBs carve up everybody else's defense too, let me state that i think the eagles do worse against good QBs than the average NFL defense. while i don't have much in the way of stats to back me up, i do have a specific example to use -- peyton manning. peyton manning absolutely owns jim johnson, and this past week's performance by the defense is not unprecedented against the colts. in fact, the eagles under JJ have never held the colts under 35 points. they've faced the colts three times under JJ and have given up 44, 35, 45 points. two of those games were with troy and bobby at corner. the first game was during a season when the eagles went 5-11, but the defense wasn't why that team went 5-11, doug pederson and the offense was. the defense was the strong point of that team and manning was only in his second year in the nfl. JJ should have been able to contain a second year QB.

sure, the eagles got run into the ground in this last game, so you can't directly attribute that to manning, but if you look deeper i think you can make a connection there. why? because manning is so in JJ's head, that JJ was willing to stay in nickel defense the whole game to keep the ball out of manning's hands. no adjustments, no changes. just a slow, painful, mashing.

this is not to say that the players are not at fault, they are, but if you are someone who thinks the defense lacks talent (i don't but i guess that's another story), then you have to look at JJ for that as well. why not heckert and reid? heckert and reid get JJ the kinds of players that JJ asks for. this defense is built in JJ's image. each player on the defense is the type of player that JJ asked for. want to complain about why the birds don't have a running back over 215 lbs? blame big red. want to complain about why the birds don't have a d-tackle over 295 lbs? blame JJ. want to complain about why the birds draft players like matt mccoy and trade for guys like mark simoneau? ask JJ. reid plays no part in the defensive scheming or roster. that's all JJ's call. this defense is built with the exact type of players that JJ has asked for and designed his defense around.

lastly, JJ's game planning has grown a little stale and predictable. it definitely seems that the league has caught up with JJ and JJ is struggling to adjust back. heck, if i can sit in the stands and see some tendencies, then JJ has a big problem. first play after the opponent crosses the 50? next play is way more often than not a blitz. first play after the opponent crosses the 20? same thing.

we've been hoping that JJ would re-adjust for a couple of seasons now since it was becoming obvious last season that some people had figured JJ out, but it hasn't happened yet.

Problem #1: Team Chemistry

i've been thinking a lot about potential root causes that derailed this once promising season. while there are obviously a lot of the factors that are contributing to the poor play, i think the single biggest issue here is team chemistry. (i will cover other areas in subsequent posts, e.g. jj's defensive scheme, lack of development of some young defensive players, decline in some of the defensive stars, lack of consistency among young offensive players, poor in-game decision making)

in the nfl, all teams have talent no matter how bad they seem. that's why a team like new orleans can look so bad one year and win their division the next. the difference between a good team and a bad team is quite small. subtleties matter. details matter. one of the things that can differentiate a good team from a bad team is team chemistry and right now the eagles have none. we can make generalizations about the talent on the team or the coaching decisions or the player evaluations, but those factors really have not changed from the organization that went from nothing to 4 straight NFC championship games. the talent on this team is good. they're not playing well, but damn, i've been watching and studying football for a long time, and this roster has a lot of players who can play.

i don't necessarily want to bring me-o into this discussion, but it's unavoidable. the body language of the players on this team has not been the same since me-o came and left. where there was once a team that had great camaraderie, actively rooted for each other, and showed great heart in the face of adversity, you now have a team that is easily frustrated and discouraged, but most critically does not particularly like each other. the offense doesn't encourage the defense. the defense doesn't encourage the offense (with the exception of dawkins). the team dynamic is horrible, much like it was at the end of the kotite and rhodes eras.

emotional wounds take some time to heal, and this team has not recovered from the garbage that went on last season. thinking about it now, realistically, how could it? how quickly can one spouse forgive another for being unfaithful? was it naive to think that a team that had to pick sides last year could come back together as one simply because there was an off-season in between?

this is a big problem for the birds and one that is not easily solved. i'm not sure if they're ever going to fully heal while donovan and players who took me-o's side (like trotter and lito) are on the same team. if trotter and lito were bit players, it might be possible, but you simply cannot have division among the stars can you?

what i know is this, the team dynamic has to change -- it may require the eagles to make some tough "chemistry over talent" type roster moves, it may require big red to be more hands on in team building/healing, heck, it may require a new head coach altogether -- but you're not going to fix this thing solely with structural changes like different game planning or adding players. the eagles are losing games because they cannot handle adversity and that is the biggest problem of all.

Phillies Sign Adam Eaton

yo pat gillick. when i said:

what? you're not going to be happy when the phillies bring in adam fucking eaton as their prize free agent pickup?

a couple of weeks ago, i wasn't serious.

Philadelphia Eagles RIP

thanks to phil for writing what i haven't had the time (or inclination) to write. nice wrapup, phil.

2000-2004
Last night in a dome in Indianapolis, the Almost Great Eagles team from this century’s first decade was finally laid to rest. The team had fought adversity admirably earlier during 2006, however the struggle to live finally came to an end. It ended not with a bang, but a whimper.

The death of this Almost Great team has been near for several weeks. The final nail went into the coffin last week as the leader and heart of the team, Donovan McNabb, shredded his ACL and was placed on IR. Hope remained though as the back-up QB had experienced success in the past. Also, the defense was still relatively healthy and had been known to shut down strong offenses in the past. Unfortunately, both have aged to such an extent that winning was no longer possible. Not against the NEs and INDs of the NFL. Nor against the TENs and TBs.

I will forever fondly recall the wonderful 5 years of Almost Greatness. The upset of the highly favored Bears in the playoffs. The run of 4 consecutive NFC Championship games. The one, lone Super Bowl appearance. They gave us Ws. They gave us joy. But most of all, they gave us hope. Almost Great Eagles, you will be sorely missed.

Armon Gilliam Commercial

hope everyone had a nice thanksgiving. due to family responsibilities (hosting thanksgiving and two other get togethers), i was unable to spend any time blogging this week.

one curious thing i saw on tv, i don't know what the commercial was for, but i swear i saw one time sixer armon "hammer" gilliam playing one-on-one against a midget and then getting dunked on by said midget. i'd bet dollars to donuts that it was him. hope he's not doing it for the money. he had a long career and was once a top 5 pick, hope he didn't squander all that money.

most of my memories about him are as part of the great UNLV teams back in the 80s. the only thing i remember about him as a sixer is that he was a pretty soft player, which was ironic given his nickname.

Ryan Howard Wins NL MVP

ryan howard edged out albert pujols in the MVP voting with 20 first place votes to pujols' 12 and 388 points to pujols' 347.

yay, i guess. at least someone we're rooting for is winning something.

Andre Waters Commits Suicide

inquirer is reporting that andre waters committed suicide this morning at his home in tampa. he was 44.

my prayers go out to his family.

edit: philly.com took the link down. here is a more detailed report from bloomberg.com, but no mention of possible suicide at espn.com

Trying to Keep Things Positive

there's always a silver lining, no matter how bad things get, right? as we enter the holiday season, we should try to stay positive and look for some good things despite yesterday's abomination. what are the silver linings are there? here's what i see:

- i'm thankful we still have allen iverson. he's not perfect and the team around him stinks, but a big part of the reason i love watching and rooting for him is evidenced in this small blurb from today's inquirer:

"I loved our effort," Cheeks said after the game.

But when asked whether he liked the Sixers' effort as well, Allen Iverson spit out a "no" as if he had just found something strange in his cheeseburger.

"Look, I'm not trying to be an ass, I promise you," Iverson said in the visiting locker room at Staples Center before getting three stitches in his chin courtesy of an accidental elbow by Corey Maggette on Maggette's drive to the hoop. "But I don't care nothing about that.

"I don't care who you're playing against, if you're playing a little rec-league team. The effort is supposed to be there every night. So it's not a big thing for me. To say, 'Yeah, we gave effort' or whatever, you're supposed to give effort. But when you go out and play basketball, you're supposed to win the basketball game.

"If you're satisfied the effort that you give, then some positive things are supposed to happen, and the most positive thing that can happen is to win... . You don't pay nobody a million dollars, a whole bunch of money, then not give effort."

- i'm thankful that we have confirmation that the drops are not a result of mcnabb throwing the ball too hard. our receivers are really just that bad.

- i'm thankful that the flyers went back to sucking after winning two games straight to remind people to keep their expectations low.

- i'm thankful that bobby clarke is gone. now maybe i can let go of some of the bitterness of having to watch john vanbiesbrouck that season that cujo wanted to play here and might have pushed the flyers over the top.

- i'm thankful that the phillies didn't sign soriano to that ludicrous contract and then subject me to months of hype and buildup, but i'm more thankful that the phillies appear to have a nice core of likeable and talented young players to build around.

- i'm thankful that i no longer have to look at head wade's misshapen noggin' as he's lecturing me about the potential of the team. just remember, no matter how bad things may look with gillick, this is how bad things were.

- i'm thankful that brian dawkins signed a new contract. although it's becoming clear to me that he's not the same difference making player he once was, i am glad that he'll retire as an eagle.

- i'm thankful that reno mahe is winning me over. honestly. i like him more and more each week and especially because he's not being forced into the 3rd down back role.

- i'm thankful that heather mitts is back in town.

- i'm thankful that chris webber only has two more years left on his contract.

- i'm thankful that i don't root for teams from cleveland, seattle, kansas city, or new orleans. i'm also thankful that i got to experience the golden age of philadelphia sports -- 1974 to 1989 by my estimation.

happy holidays all

Game 10 Thoughts

it was impressive the way the team rallied around reno mahe today after the franchise left the game with an injury that ends the season for the philadelphia eagles and probably makes next season a wipeout as well.

despite the adversity of losing their best player to a catastrophic knee injury, the eagles knuckled up and followed their second best player to 27.0 yards per return on 4 kickoffs and 12.3 yards per return on 3 punts. those are pro-bowl numbers, my friend. no quit in reno mahe for sure.

let's recount mahe's terrific day:

- reno returns his first kickoff 25 yards to the 32 after a drive by the titans where they converted the first of many third and longs, matt mccoy missed his first of many tackles that enabled travis henry to run for 43 yards, and vince young evaded darren howard and threw a TD pass to ben troupe being covered by TAFKABD. the fact that a stupid penalty by jason short sent them back to the 17 shouldn't overshadow the fact that reno set a statement with that return that he was not going to be denied in the return game today.

- reno returns his first punt of the day 16 yards to the 29 after the eagles make a critical stop after a glorious call by the eagles brain trust on 3rd and goal from the half yard line resulted in mcnabb rolling left and trying to throw to the only receiver out in a pattern, the double covered TE who never met a ball he couldn't find a way to drop or fumble and was bracketed by defenders in front and behind him. faced with the reality that this was the ONLY FREAKING GUY WHO WAS AVAILABLE TO THROW TO ON A THIRD AND HALF YARD WHERE A SNEAK WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY HAVE RESULTED IN A TD, mcnabb makes the stupid decision to try to finesse the ball over the first defender. the fact that there should have been no punt to return had TAFKABD simply caught and returned for a TD the ball that vince young put into his hands, again does not minimize the statement that reno made with his first punt return. he was secure with the ball, decisive with his cuts, and ran with power. the eagles clearly fed off the momentum supplied by reno's punt return, because the immediately took the ball and hammered it home for the FG when greg lewis clanked a pass off his metal encased hands on a perfectly thrown ball on third and short.

- reno's great day continued when he returned the next titans punt 13 yards to the 39 after the eagles fed off the momentum of the greg lewis drop and forced the titans into a 3 and out.

- another successful return after the eagles forced the titans into a 3 and out after the eagles were forced to punt shortly after their season ended on the far sideline. despite having to watch their best player being carted off the field, reno showed no quit. sure, the return was called back due to a holding penalty, but you can't let minor details bog you down when you're trying to recover from a catastrophic loss.

- poor reno didn't get to show his skills again until the second half, when he returned the opening second half kick 32 yards to the 47. a "mah-nster" return you might say. too bad he didn't get to return a punt at the end of the first half. those sissy ass were too scared to punt it to reno and instead held the ball for the final 4 minutes of the first half and kicked a field goal instead.

- reno got another chance right away though when he returned a kickoff for 23 yards to the 40 to regain momentum after travis henry's 847 yard touchdown run.

- pissed about being upstaged by his counterpart on the titans returning a punt 90 yards for a TD, reno made sure the eagles had decent field position by returning the kickoff 17 yards to the 30.

- after having made those statement returns, reno wasn't much of a factor the rest of the way as the titans either punted away from him, forced him into fair catches, or scored touchdowns to keep the ball away from him. sensing this shift away from reno, the eagles brain trust quickly switched things up by getting him into the game on offense and giving him a chance to be help them in other creative ways.

important next steps for the philadelphia eagles:
1) receivers and d-backs stop using gloves made out of chainmail
2) do some research on the mythical play called QB sneak
3) stop drafting players from rutgers, san diego state, or anywhere in florida
4) don't lose sight of how nice it is to have a QB playing who reminds you every day just how good your star QB is and how will get better once that star QB returns sometime next season.

Game 10 Preview

tennessee titans at philadelphia eagles

a solid win last week against a crumbling redskins team got the second half of the season to a good start. we'll see how much the birds learned about let downs from multiple first half debacles. this is a team the eagles should cream, absolutely cream.

footballoutsiders.com
- eagles stay at 2nd overall in weighted DVOA, drop to 3rd on offense, jump to 4th on defense, and move back to 17th on special teams
- titans come in ranked 30th overall, 27th on offense, 27th on defense, and 18th on special teams

The Eagles made a major bye-week change last week: Andy Reid turned play-calling duties over to coordinator Marty Mornhinweg. Those of use who remember Mornhinweg's tenure in Detroit may compare this decision to giving Ferrari keys to a 12-year old, but Eagles players said they didn't notice a change. In fact, receiver Reggie Brown admitted that he had no idea who called the plays. "He's the offensive coordinator, isn't he?" Way to be on top of things, Reggie. One difference was apparent in last week's win over the Redskins: the Eagles ran the ball 30 times and threw it just 26 times, though a few of those runs were really Donovan McNabb scrambles. A rainy day concession, or Marty Ball II? Either way, the Eagles are once again playing up to their ability level, which is a bad thing for the Titans.

les bowen

IF YOU'RE familiar with the Eagles' season, the 13-point line might seem generous. When you're 5-4, it's hard to say you're nearly two touchdowns better than anybody, especially a team that has lost one-point games to the Ravens and the Colts.

The Birds ought to be able to continue their commitment to running the ball, against the 32nd-ranked run defense, and their defense ought to be able to keep rookie Vince Young from spurring a huge road upset. But I'm not sure this will be a blowout.

Prediction:

Eagles 24, Titans 12

vegas vic

One 27-3 win over a lousy Redskins club lifted everyone's spirits, but Jeff Fisher's Titans have covered four of their last five, and never stop fighting. We like the Birds, but by a dime or less.

Pick: Titans (+13) over EAGLES

espn scouts inc

This could end up being a closer game than most people think. Titans head coach Jeff Fisher is a master at coming up with a defensive game plan to stymie powerful offenses. The Titans are close to as healthy as they have been all season and are apt to come out with fire in their eyes after a tough loss to a strong Ravens team. The key will be to limit the number of explosive plays they allow the Eagles and how well Tennessee is able to control the clock. However, Philadelphia just has too many weapons. It will be fun to watch a top offensive mind (Andy Reid) match wits against a top defensive mind (Fisher).

Prediction: Eagles 28, Titans 17

madden 07

It was another tough offensive day for the Titans, who got just 235 total yards of offense and missed out on two scoring opportunities inside the Philly 10-yard-line, having to settle for field goals both times. The Eagles kicked off the scoring as Donovan McNabb took it in himself in the first quarter, and then Philly mounted a nice goal-line stand and knocked a Tennessee first-and-ten at the two back to the four, where the Titans kicked it to make it 7-3.

Philly increased its lead to 14-3 in the second quarter as McNabb hit Donte' Stallworth, and added a field goal early in the third to go up 17-3. The Titans found the end zone on a Travis Henry score midway through that period to cut the lead, but then had to settle for another short field goal early in the fourth, and the Eagles wrapped up the scoring on McNabb's second TD pass of the game, this one to Reggie Brown.

Prediction: Eagles 24 - Titans 13

what i think
should be a blowout based on matchups. might not be a blowout as a sandwich game between a division opponent and a showdown with the colts looming.

titans o vs. eagles d
the titans have to run the ball and control the clock to shorten the game to have a shot at winning. they'll be toast if they get into a shootout. they have a future star at QB, but he's still a rookie. they have some talent at halfback and tight end, but their wideouts were nondescript prior to david givens blowing out his knee and their o-line is below average.

biggest concern for the birds defense is vince young's legs. historically, JJ's defenses haven't controlled mobile QBs well because they play so much man defense. young's scrambling shouldn't be a factor in who wins or loses the game, but it's something to watch. still, young is not like vick in that he is trying to be a pass first QB, so JJ should have a field day confusing the heck out of him.

eagles o vs. titan d
the titans d is well balanced, meaning they stink against both the run and the pass, but if you had to pick a specific weakness it would be the secondary. not a good sign coming in to play a top passing offense. they do have a couple of playmakers in kyle vandenbosch and keith bulluck though.

the number of points the eagles score will largely be dictated by how well they play. jeff fisher can scheme all he wants, i don't think he's going to be able to overcome the talent difference between the two teams.

bottom line
the birds will not lose this game unless they turn the ball over 4 times... even if they come out flat.

prediction
eagles 23 - titan 13

Eagles DPAR and DVOA Ranks for Week 11

sorry for my lack of involvement this week. still quite busy at work

- TEAM - the philadelphia eagles jump to 1st in overall team efficiency, but are 2nd in weighted DVOA (more emphasis on recent play). the team drops to 3rd on offense, but staggeringly jumps to 4th on defense (recognize this is for the whole season, not just last game), and moves back up to 17th on special teams. the birds have had the 14th hardest schedule up to this point, and have the 8th hardest from here on out.

ranks for the other teams in the division breaks down like (DVOA/past schedule/future schedule): cowboys 6th/15th/5th, giants 3rd/5th/4th, redskins 19th/2nd/6th. eagles are still the second most consistent team in the nfl, having a variance of only 5.1% in their game performances, and frustratingly continue to lead the nfl in expected wins at 7.7 (giants and bears are second at 6.6).

- QB - donovan mcnabb ranks 5th in DPAR and 5th in DVOA

- RB - brian westbrook ranks 8th in DPAR/3rd in DVOA for rushing and 1st in DPAR/4th in DVOA for receiving

- WR - reggie brown ranks 17th/12th, donte' stallworth ranks 30th/23rd, hank baskett and greg lewis do not have enough catches to qualify in the rankings

- TE - lj smith ranks 16th/20th

- OL - the jackson 5 continues to rank 5th in run blocking and 18th in pass protection. running behind william thomas continues to be a problem. the birds rank 6th sweeping left, 4th up the middle, 9th off right tackle, and 9th sweeping right, but continue to be horrible at 30th off left tackle. i sort of buy the argument that it could be an issue with coordination between herremans and thomas, but then you'd expect to see a similar phenomenon between herremans and jackson.

- DL - the d-line ranks a predictable 23rd against the run and 2nd in pass rushing.

NCAA Makes Me Want to Vomit

president of the NCAA claims they deserve their tax-exempt status because their primary goal is education.

UFC

some interesting fights on the UFC PPV card this weekend:

- matt hughes defends welterweight title against georges st. pierre
- tim sylvia defends heavyweight against jeff monson
- up and coming brandon vera against former champ frank mir

any predictions? my hope is that gsp and monson both take the belts, but i'm not optimistic that will happen.

Eagles at Colts Moved to Sunday Night

the nfl moved the eagles-colts game on november 26 from 1 pm to 8:15 pm.

Game 9 Thoughts

a good performance by the philadelphia eagles today. really, the first complete game the birds have played all season. even though it was by no means a perfect game, they did enough good things to win, and most importantly, they maintained their edge for the entire 60 minutes.

the outcome was never really in doubt as washington showed itself to be what we expected, a flawed team trying to score points with power running and gimmick plays and a defense that is aggressive but generally porous. while the birds did benefit from some fortunate calls (westbrook fumble) and lucky bounces (reggie brown fumble), that wasn't why they won the game. those plays just added some points to the final score.

- big news of the day is that andy finally gave up playcalling duties! woo hoo! not only does this put someone in charge of calling plays whose only job is calling plays, it puts andy in a better position to think about and make the strategic game management decisions that have been somewhat of a bugaboo during his tenure here. i believe this is a move that will pay huge dividends in the long run and it will manifest itself most visibly in a reduction in blown timeouts and an improvement in clock management.

- they continue to have success whenever they run without a huddle. the offense seems to run with a better rhythm.

- first drive of the game, the eagles drive down the field (no huddle) and get to 3rd and 1. why not QB sneak here? don has been very successful over his career with the sneak. why don't they use this more? why won't they use it more? i'm sure andy has his reasons, but man, that's an easy get there. because of the no huddle, the skins weren't even able to get their short yardage package in the game. there was a huge gap between the two d-tackles. don't tell me our 240 lb QB and our massive center couldn't have picked up 3 yards easily. instead, handoff to westbrook predictably stuffed.

- first drive of the second half, the eagles have a nice long drive down the field (again no huddle) and get to 2nd and goal at the 1. why not sneak? instead, roll mcnabb out to the right looking to pass to RB in the flat. RB is covered by LB, so mcnabb holds it and looks and looks and then throws it over schobel's head. just sneak the darn ball! third down, some sort of off-tackle play i think that gets stuffed.

- eagles showed a nice commitment to the run today. it was nice to see, especially on this rainy day tailor made for power football.

- reno continues to grow on me. part of it was noting how nice it was having someone who catches punts so securely back there and part of is his continued absence from the offense. now that i don't have to see him line up as the third down back, i'm pretty happy with what he can do.

- dhani jones continues to play pretty well (for him). as steve72 mentioned today at the game, he's still no emmons, but he's getting the job done. couple of big plays for him today (recall last year he had zero big plays), 1) forcing brunell into a grounding call and 2) blowing a skins running back up for the loss on a swing pass.

- eagles corners are looking really solid now that they're getting healthy and with the addition of william james (the ex william petersen). they can all run. they're all physical. i'm not sure when james came into the game, but when i noticed him for the first time late in the game, i thought he played pretty well. he even brings some size to the position too, which is something the cornerback corps has been lacking recently. they're running 4 guys deep who can start in the NFL.

- bunkley still looks awful. he stands straight up at the snap and gets no penetration, instead engaging in hand fighting with the o-linemen. steve72 mentioned that maybe he hasn't adjusted to the pro game yet, since he was used to being able to physically dominate in college. i'm not so sure about that, but it's a definite possibility. i'd just like to see him get low on a play and drive into the backfield. i haven't seen him even try that. just as a point of comparison, corey simon did that in his first play as a pro and mike patterson was able to do that quite often last year. heck, even lajuan ramsey was doing that earlier this season when he was dressing for games. i'm not asking for much, i'd just like to see him drive into the backfield once. just once. i haven't seen it yet.

- dawkins had a great game. he was very physical in run support and was very emotional. he's still one of my favorite eagles, but i have to say that it appears he's lost a step. b-dawk was a guy who used to be able to run with wideouts back in his prime. now, he's having trouble running with tight ends sometimes.

- sean considine is definitely growing on me. for a smaller guy, he is really willing to stick his head in there. i was impressed with his willingness to take on duckett head on during tj's long run in the second half. of course, he got blown backwards, but he made the play and got duckett to the ground.

- poor michael lewis, he must really be in the dog house. while the birds were running him in on first down and obvious running situations, he didn't sniff the field on passing downs. low point for him, when b-dawk went out with his injury after defending the randle el option pass, the eagles ran quentin mikell into the game to replace dawkins instead of lewis.

- it's funny how often hank baskett lines up in the wrong place. it seems like 3-4 times a game, don is directing him or pointing to the other side of the field or yanking him somewhere other than where he is headed. i think stallworth's injury hurt them more than we realized as it had a cascading effect on the whole offense. everyone on the receiving corps had to move up one level and into a role that they probably weren't ready to handle. i'm thinking that played at least some part in the epidemic of drops while stallworth was out.

Game 9 Preview

washington redskins at philadelphia eagles

start of the second half fellas. gotta get the ship righted and this is the game you have to do it. i thought that jacksonville was a tough matchup for the birds going into the game, and it turned out to be even tougher than i feared. i had hoped/expected that emotion coming off two losses and home field advantage would be enough to overcome the jags physical superiority, but alas no luck.

this game, i have no such fears. the eagles match up pretty well with the skins.

footballoutsiders.com
- eagles stay at 2nd overall in DVOA, stay at 2nd on offense, jump to 7th on defense, and drop to 20th on special teams
- redskins come in ranked 19th overall, 6th on offense, 30th on defense, and 10th on special teams

Just how has Mark Brunell maintained his strangle-hold on the Redskins quarterback job despite weeks of ineptitude? Perhaps midi-chlorians are at work. We asked Brunell about his secret. "You don't need to see my identification," he said. We agreed. "These are not the droids you seek. I will remain the starter," he said. We agreed again. "You can go about your business," he said. We did. So much for Joe Gibbs' status as a Jedi Master. Or Sith Lord, depending on your perspective.

The Redskins overcame a poor offensive performance to beat the Cowboys last week. The Eagles are trying to overcome poor performances in all three aspects of the game against the Jaguars, a game that marked the flashover point after a month of dumb penalties, bad bounces, and crippling turnovers. They are so mixed up that even their clichés are getting garbled. "We are a confident team and still have our swagger but now we have to find a way to get it back," Brian Westbrook said. If you still have it, why do you need it back? Never mind.

Andy Reid gave the team a bye week vacation to try to blow off the failure stench. "It was good to get away," wide receiver Donte' Stallworth said. "It was a good time to do some soul-searching." Once they find inner peace, the Eagles will realize that they are a far better team than the Redskins. Their pass rush should force Brunell to throw plenty of his patented sideline flutterballs. Donovan McNabb should carve up their secondary. There's no way the Eagles can lose on a late rally, a costly penalty, or a 62-yard field goal this week. Is there?

Fear leads to anger, and anger leads to the Dark Side. Don't fear the Eagles at home this week. And don't be surprised when they claw their way back into the hunt.

les bowen

IF I pick the Eagles to lose this game, I acknowledge the season is over, which makes my job pretty dreary for the next 2 months.

I'm not doing that.

I was as shocked as anyone at the Jacksonville mess - before that day, I thought I was watching a good team that was making a few too many mistakes, a team that might be a little too young here and there, but was basically a playoff contender. In the wake of that game, I wasn't sure what I'd been watching. I'm still not sure.

But if the Eagles are going to get back on track this season, now is the time. The Redskins needed a miracle finish to avoid dropping to 2-6 last week. Yeah, they feel their season is alive again, but they still have many of the problems that made them 2-5. The Birds ought to be able to exploit the league's 30th-ranked pass defense.

If that doesn't happen, it might be time to start thinking about the draft.

Prediction

Eagles 31, Redskins 20

vegas vic

All the stats are out there for you to digest. Who is the NFL passing leader with 2,312 yards? That would be Donovan McNabb. What team ranks 30th in the league in passing defense? That would be Washington. Those little nuggets alone should put you on the Eagles, but here is the money stat. Andy Reid has seven full seasons under his belt as head coach of the Birds, and his record the week after a bye is a big, fat 7-0!

Pick: EAGLES (-7) over Redskins

washington post
no predictions yet at either the washington post or the washington times. i may update this over the weekend with their predictions

espn scouts inc

The Eagles will be well rested and healthy coming out of their bye, and will look to stop the bleeding with a win at home against division rival Washington.

The Eagles need to win their next two games if they are going to stay close to the division-leading Giants, because they play at Indy later this month. They have too many weapons on offense for the Redskins' defense to handle, and the Redskins' offense has been inconsistent all year, almost giving the game away last week.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Redskins 17

madden 07

Mark Brunell threw for two scores and ran for another, but it wasn't enough as Philadelphia held off the Redskins for a big win in this NFC East matchup. Redskins kicker Nick Novak missed two short field goals that could have had an effect on the outcome, and the Redskins found themselves too far behind in the fourth quarter to mount any sort of a comeback. The Eagles posted all their points in the first three quarters, getting four touchdowns and a pair of field goals in that time to take a 33-14. Philly failed on its two-point attempt to make it a 21-point margin, but the Redskins were only able to notch a field goal early in the fourth and then a Santana Moss TD catch with seven minutes left to pull the team to within nine points. Had Novak not missed the two easy field goals, the comeback might have been more manageable, but Philly twice stopped the Redskins on fourth down as the final quarter wound down, ensuring they would hold on to the win.

Prediction: Eagles 33 - Redskins 24

what i think
for the third game in the row... the eagles cannot afford to lose this game, no way, no how.

the eagles are the better team personnel wise and they matchup well against the redskins in terms of style. in addition, andy has done well over the years against the skins and is undefeated coming out of the bye.

redskins o vs. eagles d
skins run the ball pretty well behind their massive tackles chris samuels and jon jansen, but the middle of their o-line is just ok. dockery is massive, but one good thing for the birds d-tackles: there are no samoans on the redskins o-line. gibbs traditionally likes to power run and then play action pass over the top, but that hasn't worked for him in his second run with the skins so he brought in al saunders this year. saunders doesn't really like to throw downfield -- he runs the ball and throws a lot of screens and quick outs -- but he does call his share of intermediate routes (deep ins and such).

there really isn't much to fear from the skins. they'll probably be able to run the ball on the birds, but that should only get them 13-17 points. unless they're able to pass effectively this game could get out of hand for them, but they have problems in the passing game. brunell is nothing more than a game manager now and santana moss is coming in with a hamstring injury.

eagles o vs. redskins d
the skins pass defense has been horrible this year, and with the skins defense among the worst in the nfl, it seems like gregg williams is no longer a lock to replace joe gibbs (a shame for eagles fans as williams was a horrible head coach). however, they've played most of the season without their best corner (shawn springs), who when healthy, is about as good as anyone in the league -- he can run and he can be physical.

the big question is whether the eagles can get back in sync on offense. i'm not sure if the eagles will run the ball more this game considering the weakness of the skins defense has been their pass defense this season, but they'll be fine as long as guys catch the passes that hit them in the hands.

bottom line
the birds just need to get back to basics. no drops, no turnovers, and fewer stupid penalties should lead to more than enough points to win.

prediction
eagles 27 - redskins 17

Eagles DPAR and DVOA Ranks for Week 10

- TEAM - the philadelphia eagles stay at 2nd in overall team efficiency. the team stays at 2nd on offense, jumps to 7th on defense, and drops to 20th on special teams. the birds have had the 18th hardest schedule up to this point, and have the 12th hardest from here on out. ranks for the other teams in the division breaks down like (DVOA/past schedule/future schedule): cowboys 10th/10th/11th, giants 4th/16th/3rd, redskins 19th/4th/2nd. eagles are still the second most consistent team in the nfl, having a variance of only 4.8% in their game performances, and frustratingly, lead the nfl in expected wins at 6.7 (giants are second at 6.4).

- QB - donovan mcnabb ranks 4th in DPAR and 6th in DVOA

- RB - brian westbrook ranks 8th in DPAR/5th in DVOA for rushing and 2nd in DPAR/7th in DVOA for receiving

- WR - reggie brown ranks 9th/6th, donte' stallworth ranks 35th/16th, hank baskett and greg lewis do not have enough catches to qualify in the rankings

- TE - lj smith ranks 13th/20th

- OL - through eight games, the jackson 5 ranks 5th in run blocking and 18th in pass protection. running behind william thomas continues to be a problem. the birds rank 9th sweeping left, 2nd up the middle, 11th off right tackle, and 6th sweeping right, but continue to be horrible at 31st off left tackle.

- DL - the d-line ranks a predictable 22nd against the run and 1st in pass rushing.

Merrill Hoge

by request, here is what i think of merrill hoge: he's an idiot.

he's carved himself a little niche by being generally contrarian and making controversial statements, but really he's the bill walton of nfl analysts. virtually everything that comes out of his mouth is worthless.

i try not to pay attention to him. remember, this is a guy who predicted the eagles would go 8-8 their superbowl season and then picked them to lose almost every game the entire season. this is also the guy who said that matt leinart should be a 3rd round pick and that vince young should be a second day pick (two guys who are going to be stars in this league).

think about it this way. jaws is the best nfl analyst today (footballoutsiders.com, bill parcells, ray didinger, et al). merrill hoge disagrees with just about everything jaws says. ergo, hoge is wrong just about every time he opens his mouth.

my advice, pretend like he doesn't exist.

Eagles Midseason Review

half way through the season and we're all still scratching our heads about this team. there have been flashes of brilliance, but there have also been flashes of ineptitude -- often within the same game, if not the same series. what's the cause of that? who the heck knows? i have my theories, just like everyone else does, but obviously i can't know for sure.

- is the team inconsistent because of the amount of roster turnover the last two seasons? could the rather high number of young players in be causing some of the inconsistency?

- is the team inconsistent because they've tuned out big red?

- is the team full of mentally weak players?

- are the players simply not as good as we/i thought they were? at the pro level, the difference between good and great is as much about frequency and consistency of great plays a player makes as it is about the ability to make the great plays at all. maybe the flashes of brilliance we're seeing are just that -- more akin to willie burton scoring 50 than allen iverson scoring 50.

i don't know, but we'll learn alot about this team the second half of the season. making the playoffs, while not impossible, is an uphill battle at best. realistically, this team needs to win 6 of 8 games against:

- washington
- tennessee
- @indianpolis
- carolina
- @washington
- @giants
- @dallas
- atlanta

it'll be tough, but not impossible. the eagles have been inconsistent, but so has every team on this list except for indianapolis.

the eagles better come out of the bye (i think they're undefeated under andy reid in the game following the bye week) and take care of business against the redskins like they should.

here are mid-season grades so far:

QB - A - a season that started off as an A+, MVP-type season has tailed off a little. except for one bad game against tampa and an erratic stretch against jacksonville, he has passed the ball very well and pretty consistently. in addition, he is looking very spry and running the ball better than he has in years. at the half way point, don's line looks like this: comp-162..... att-277..... pct-58.5..... yds-2312..... yd/att-8.3..... TD-16..... INT-5..... rush-28..... yds-200..... TD-3. the completion pct looks pretty ordinary, but then again, the eagles lead the league in drops.

RB - B - despite being limited somewhat by injury, westbrook is playing pretty well -- he's averaging 5.1 yards a carry and 10.6 yards a catch. buckhalter has been serviceable as his understudy -- 4.1 y/carry and 8.7 y/catch.

WR - D+ - stallworth started out hot, then got hurt and then nothing. brown has good numbers... but also leads the nfl in drops. baskett has been inconsistent. lewis had some flashes, but he's a 4th wideout. these guys have potential, but they're going through growing pains during a season when the eagles are counting on them to be starters. i guess it's not really their fault, but these guys have to grow up quickly for this team to win. the eagles aren't alone in their belief that receivers are a dime a dozen, however, some of the other teams seem to prefer cheap veteran receivers rather than cheap young receivers. i'm guessing this has a lot to do with those same growing pains young receivers experience.

TE - D - can't block and inconsistent catching the ball. not a lot to like from smith and schobel. even the usually steady bartrum blew a snap over dirk johnson's head.


OL - C - pass blocking has been spotty and run blocking has been feast or famine. need more consistency from these guys if the worst coast offense is going to function the way it needs to (sustaining drives).

DL - C+ - a unit that started off incredibly hot, but has tailed off dramatically. a lot of it is due to the loss of kearse, but the freak's absence does not explain why the fat guys are getting pushed around like rag dolls. cole is a star in the making and i continue to like mike patterson. bunkley is looking like a bust so far and mcdougle can't get on the field even though freak is out. (can we make a rule that the eagles are not allowed to draft a d-lineman from the state of florida unless their name is jerome brown?).

LB - B - i don't have a problem with how the LBs have played this year. trotter is suffering because the d-tackles aren't eating up blockers like they should, but dhani is having his best year as an eagle. mccoy has missed some tackles, but has made enough big plays for me to be optimistic about his future. shawn barber has been a beast in the nickel. gaither made a rookie mistake and cost the birds the saints game.

CB - C+ - injuries have hurt this unit, but they've been inconsistent in coverage and in support. they need to improve in the second half. hopefully william james will help, he was a pretty good player with the giants. it's nice to see lito back to being a playmaker on defense. he didn't play like this at all last season, i'm guessing he was hurt more than they let on.

S - D - a usually steady group has been not so steady. dawkins is still a player, but looks like he lost a step. michael lewis probably screwed himself by not taking the extension the eagles were offering because he looks like a limited player right now. considine has made some really nice plays, but is more suited to FS and playing in coverage.

K/P - D - akers started off the year slow and johnson has been among the worst punters in the league.

ST - D - return teams have been ineffective and coverage teams have had breakdowns at critical moments

COACHING - D+ - has been a mixed bag just like the rest of the team. have outcoached the other team in some games (giants, dallas), have been outcoached some games (new orleans, tampa). these guys need to get the team to play with much more consistency and far fewer penalties. despite what some people in the media and on this site maintain, i fail to see how you can attribute the coaching deficiencies to being "stubborn". to do so implies that andy and the staff know how to fix things but refuse to do it. disagreeing with your opinion or my opinion does not make them stubborn. simon mentions that andy needs to change his game plan more. i agree with that, but to attribute it to stubbornness means you think andy doesn't think he needs to change his game plans. you might as well be saying that winning is not his top priority (i believe it is). for all we know, andy actually thinks he does change things up enough. i think the issues we're seeing with the coaching are more likely a result of him/them just not being good enough than they are a result of him being stubborn. regardless, imo he's earned the right to try to work things out. 3 NFC championship games and 1 SB appearance means he gets at least this season and the next from me to do it his way.

Overall - interestingly enough, the grades above average out to exactly a "C", which is fitting considering the team is 4-4. i continue to hold out hope that the team can finish strong at 10-6 because i have to as a fan. do i think they can do it? i think they have the talent and the QB to do it. do i think it will happen? maybe.

Sixers/Flyers

i know the sixers started out 3-0, but does anyone seriously believe this team will be competitive? while i continue to be impressed with AI's ability to play at a high level with no practice and no interest in conditioning, there is precious little to prompt optimism from the rest of the squad. the team cannot rebound and will struggle to score unless they're shooting lights out from the outside. everyone keeps talking about igoudala, but his upside isn't that high. he'll be a good defender on the wing and an athletic guy on the break, but i doubt he'll ever score consistently.

the flyers are screwed for a while, with no bright side in the visible horizon. good thing clarke waited until he ensured the team will suck for the next 5 years before he quit. what's the use in doing a half-ass job at ruining the franchise? at least now there's no danger that fans will hold out some hope of being competitive. that recaptured time and energy must be his gift to us.

15000 Visitors

scrapplelog hit a milestone during my work hiatus, surpassing 15000 visitors and 20000 page views since i started posting in earnest in september 2005.

Scrapplelog Swamped

nothing from me this week. i've been working 18-20 hour days, which as it turns out was welcome because it kept me from thinking about how the eagles laid down like dogs.