Game 8 Thoughts

Eagles epilogue:

Drops and dumb-ass penalties. Has this mediocre and boring team finally stopped listening to Andy Reid? What does today's performance tell us about the coach's ability to motivate? What does it tell us about the character of the team's key players?

Bad loss. Bad season.

well that about sums it up, doesn't it? going in, i thought this game was going to be tough for the eagles to win, even with their "a" game, because the jaguars are a team that matches up well with the birds. this jaguars team is designed to beat finesse teams like the eagles with their power running game, two gap d-linemen, and good secondary. still, i figured with with the season on the line, this team would come out fired up and meet the challenge. dead wrong.

a loss today would not necessarily have doomed the season. yes, a loss does make the playoffs a much longer shot (would likely need to go at least 6-2 in the second half to sniff the playoffs), but given that the eagles, by visual and statisical measures, were the better team on the field in all of their games coming into this one, i was prepared for the possibility of an "l" in this spot. the jags are a damn good team. an inconsistent one, but a good, fundamentally sound team nonetheless.

what i was not prepared for was the lifeless, pathetic, and careless manner in which the eagles came out to play this game. i think whoever wrote the above passage (bumble i am assuming) hits on probably the key issue in my mind -- has the team tuned out andy reid? it's obviously a big problem if it has. andy has never been one to motivate his team -- he counts on his players to be professionals (i.e. "self motivating"), and by and large, he counts on his veterans to do the policing -- however, he usually has been very good at preparing the team to play and "circling the wagons" when the team was facing adversity. there were plenty of indications of this -- his record coming off a loss has been excellent, the way he got the team to deal with and overcome injuries, the way he got the team to rebound in 2003 after the horrible 0-2 start, etc.

from my outsider's point of view, andy has always appeared to employ the "carrot" much more often than the "stick". he sets the expectation of success and then he tells them that he believes they can do it. in general, this has worked for him. while others (e.g. parcells, belichick, coughlin) use a much more "hard coaching" style, andy chose the softer more positive approach.

unfortunately, what i'm seeing is that this softer approach doesn't seem to be working on this team right now. why, i'm not sure. could he have lost the respect of the locker room based on how he handled/didn't handle the me-o situation? could the loss of critical leadership mass (vincent, hugh, ike, chad lewis) finally be catching up to this team? could the character of this team just not be good right now?

i was going to post this as a separate topic and discussion, and i probably still will because there is a lot of good information in there, but it seems to be very appropriate here as well. michael lewis (of moneyball and blind side fame) writes a very insightful article (no surprise) in today's new york times. the topic is a week with bill parcells, but i imagine a lot of what parcells was feeling and thinking is very applicable to big red right now.

here are some relevant excerpts:

What has him troubled — what has him waking up choking on his bile — isn’t what you might expect. It’s not concern that the Redskins’ coaching staff could spring something on the Cowboys for which they are entirely unprepared. And it’s not his team’s raw ability. It’s a thing that’s harder to put into words, and impervious to strategy. Even as he is trying to study his next opponent, he can’t shake what happened on Sunday. How his team, the moment the Jaguars pushed back, collapsed. How, the moment the players felt the pressure, they began to commit penalties and the sort of small but critical mental errors that only a coach watching video can perceive. In their performance he smells the sort of failure he defines himself against.

It’s an elemental thing — that mysterious something in a player under pressure that either snaps or holds — and elemental things are what interest this old coach. Golfers with the yips, big-league catchers whose careers end when they find themselves suddenly unable to throw the ball back to the pitcher — these he understands. He was in the stands during a spring-training baseball game when the St. Louis Cardinals tried to bring back their mentally broken young pitcher, Rick Ankiel — and watched Ankiel throw the ball over the catcher’s head, several times. “Ian Baker Finch!” Parcells exclaims, once he has warmed to the subject. “Ian Baker Finch won the British Open. Two years later he couldn’t hit a golf ball with a golf club.” Fear of failure can infect the mind and turn sport into a kind of walking death. “If you can find a solution to that problem,” he tells me, “quit writing. You’d make a fortune. You got all these sports psychologists. None of them can help these guys.”

Among the papers is an anecdote Parcells brings up often in conversation, about a boxing match that took place nearly 30 years ago between the middleweights Vito Antuofermo and Cyclone Hart. Parcells loves boxing; his idea of a perfect day in the off-season is to spend it inside some ratty boxing gym in North Jersey. “It’s a laboratory,” he says. “You get a real feel for human behavior under the strongest duress — under the threat of physical harm.” In this laboratory he has identified a phenomenon he calls the game quitter. Game quitters, he says, seem “as if they are trying to win, but really they’ve given up. They’ve just chosen a way out that’s not apparent to the naked eye. They are more concerned with public opinion than the end result.”

Parcells didn’t see the Hart-Antuofermo fight in person but was told about it, years ago, by a friend and boxing trainer, Teddy Atlas. It stuck in his mind and now strikes him as relevant. Seated, at first, he begins to read aloud from the pages: how in this fight 29 years ago Hart was a well-known big puncher heavily favored against the unknown Vito Antuofermo, how Hart knocked Antuofermo all over the ring, how Antuofermo had no apparent physical gifts except “he bled well.” “But,” Parcells reads, “he had other attributes you couldn’t see.” Antuofermo absorbed the punishment dealt out by his natural superior, and he did it so well that Hart became discouraged. In the fifth round, Hart began to tire, not physically but mentally. Seizing on the moment, Antuofermo attacked and delivered a series of quick blows that knocked Hart down, ending the fight.

The Redskins video is still frozen on the screen behind Parcells. He is no longer sitting but is now on his feet. “This is the interesting part,” he says, then reads:

“When the fighters went back to their makeshift locker rooms, only a thin curtain was between them. Hart’s room was quiet, but on the other side he could hear Antuofermo’s cornermen talking about who would take the fighter to the hospital. Finally he heard Antuofermo say, ‘Every time he hit me with that left hook to the body, I was sure I was going to quit. After the second round, I thought if he hit me there again, I’d quit. I thought the same thing after the fourth round. Then he didn’t hit me no more.’

“At that moment, Hart began to weep. It was really soft at first. Then harder. He was crying because for the first time he understood that Antuofermo had felt the same way he had and worse. The only thing that separated the guy talking from the guy crying was what they had done. The coward and the hero feel the same emotions. They’re both human.”

When Parcells finishes, he says: “This is the story of our last game. We were Cyclone Hart.”

well, the andy reid eagles used to be vito antuofermo (especially during the early years). i remember lamenting at the time, that the eagles won by waiting for the other team to make mistakes and they didn't seem to make dynamic plays to win. they just waited for the other guy to lose. now that this eagles vintage appears to be cyclone hart, how i wish for those boring teams.

today's game was almost exactly like the 2003 nfc championship game against carolina in style, substance, and result. today, the jaguars showed no respect to the eagles, and the eagles folded like a cheap suit.

biggest problems i saw:

- the jags played press coverage on the receivers all day. they showed no respect for the eagles receiving corps and boy did it pay off for them. since no receiver made any plays today (heck we were in the third quarter before a wideout even caught a stinking pass), the jags definitely made the right call. the young receiving corps did not get open very much today, and when they did, they dropped the ball. repeatedly. like they never saw a football before in their lives. it was sad.

- since the jags were playing man coverage in the secondary, that should have left them vulnerable to the run. unfortunately, their massive two-gap d-linemen ate our o-line today. the jackson 5 didn't know what to do with themselves. they certainly were not ready to handle the physical challenge that jags presented. no wonder they kept false starting. when you keep getting punched in the face, flinching is inevitable. sadly, they didn't (or worse) couldn't punch back.

- don lost faith in the receiving corps after reggie brown's drop on the first play of the game. that's a big problem.

- the middle of the jags line (meester and the two samoans) *dominated* the d-tackles. darwin walker was either playing without much discipline or he was getting manhandled and thrown sideways on every run, truck driver was a non-factor, and bunkley appears to be a bust. even mike patterson was getting blown off the line.

- broderick bunkley appears to be a bust. here is what i wrote when the eagles drafted him:

personally, i'm not as high on bunkley as all the experts are, but if they think he's good and big red thinks he's good, then he's good enough for me. i saw florida state play a couple of times this year and didn't think bunkley was all that impressive -- plus he was well-nigh invisible in the orange bowl. that could have been due to double teaming though as i definitely was not focusing on him.

the guy i'm seeing on the field is the guy i saw at the orange bowl against penn state. a non-factor.

very difficult to win if you can't control either line of scrimmage. what a miserable f'n game. what a miserable two weeks it's going to be.

Whither Westbrook?

i found a couple of things interesting about don banks' analysis of the 2002 nfl draft on SI.com

1) despite being one of the most exciting and game breaking players to come out in the 2002 draft, there is no mention of brian westbrook anywhere in the article

2) in a draft that had more than its fair share of busts, the eagles were able extract lito, sheldon, michael lewis, and westbrook. we knew it was good work by the eagles -- hitting on all four of their top picks -- but now that we can look after the fact and factor in the overall quality of the draft, it makes it appear even more impressive.

Game 8 Preview

jacksonville jaguars at philadelphia eagles

wow, half way through the season already and the team still appears to be a work in progress. there have been flashes of dominance, for sure, but the bottom line results have been mediocre, as their 4-3 record would attest. i'd like to say the team has been inconsistent, but that doesn't really paint the right picture because game in and game out they've moved the ball and had periods of defensive dominance. it's almost like they are inconsistent from play to play rather than from game to game. it's the strangest thing i've seen from an eagles team.

this is a must win game for them and one that may not come easily. the jaguars can be a formidable opponent, especially because they have a tendency to play to the level of their competition.

footballoutsiders.com
- eagles jump to 2nd overall in DVOA, drop to 2nd on offense, jump to 8th on defense, and remain at 18th on special teams
- jaguars come in ranked 8th overall, 19th on offense, 4th on defense, and 19th on special teams

Andy Reid called a special Monday practice to make his team watch film of their last two losses, a 30-minute gag reel filled with facemask-grabbing, 12th-man blitzing, flag-kicking, and public vomiting. Apparently, Johnny Knoxville was called in to edit the footage. "No one's blowing a head gasket or getting out of control right now," Darren Howard said after the film session. Apparently, Howard hasn't spoken to an Eagles fan recently. The Jaguars can match the Eagles play-for-bonehead play: injuries, fumbles, and dropped passes all contributed to an embarrassing loss to the Texans. "We just need to walk out of this Texas stadium and delete this," Reggie Williams said on Sunday. The loser of this game may be deleted from the playoff picture. The Eagles won't let that happen at home.

les bowen

IT'S GUT-CHECK time in Birdland. It's a little troubling that the Jaguars really need this game, too, after falling to 3-3 - they're a good team, and can be expected to put up a fight - but they're on the road, where they are 0-3 this season.

The Eagles sure look like a really good team that hasn't quite put it all together yet. Maybe they won't, but I think if Houston can run the ball on Jacksonville's defense, so can Brian Westbrook. And if the Birds' defense can't handle a gimpy, immobile Byron Leftwich, there's not much hope for the second half of the season.

I really expect Donovan McNabb to snap back into the form of the first 5 weeks and the fourth quarter last week. The Eagles are about as healthy as they're going to get this season, and there's really no excuse for not winning this game.

Prediction:

Eagles 28, Jaguars 20

vegas vic

We don't know who will quarterback the Jaguars (Byron Leftwich or David Garrard), but we do know which group of Jags we'll see. The wounded road warriors who are 0-3 away from home, straight up, and, against the spread.

florida times-union
couldn't find a prediction on their site, but discovered that jaws called them "mentally weak"

Running back Fred Taylor was watching the show Pardon the Interruption on ESPN Monday when he heard former Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Ron Jaworski say the Jaguars are a "mentally weak'' team.

"Maybe at the time, you're like, 'Whoa.' But then you forget about it. It's nothing,'' Taylor said.

"That's his opinion," Taylor said. "He doesn't play here. He's never been here. It has nothing to do with the mental [state]. We lost the game. They outplayed us. Point blank. We made no excuses about it. We really thought we were going to go in there and win the game."

According to an ESPN spokesman, Jaworski said, "Defensively, they have had a lot of injuries. But also, I think that they are a mentally weak football team and that's surprising because I know Jack Del Rio and he's a very tough guy. He believes in discipline. He believes in hard work.

"But this team, through their history, has struggled against teams they are better than - that they should beat. I don't care how many injuries you have. You can't go down to Houston and play the clunker of a game that the Jaguars played. I think they are a mentally weak team that can't get themselves ready to play each week.''

espn scouts inc

The Eagles have their backs are against the wall as they've let their lead in the NFC East slip away the past two weeks. They need a win at home to generate momentum going into the bye if they are going to keep pace with the division-leading Giants. If McNabb continues to throw costly interceptions, the Eagles might not make the playoffs. The Jaguars are 0-3 on the road and a win at Philly would break that streak before a three-game home stretch. The Jags have a good defense but it will not be enough against the Eagles. Eagles win at home.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Jaguars 20

madden 07

Donovan McNabb didn't have one of his better days as a pro, but he still connected on three touchdown passes, and Philly's defense stifled struggling Byron Leftwich as the Eagles atoned for last week's last-second loss and got back on the winning track. McNabb's scoring strikes to L.J. Smith in the first half and Greg Lewis and Donte' Stallworth in the second half were more than enough to beat a Jacksonville team that squandered all three of its red zone opportunities.

Philly led 10-3 into the break and Jacksonville opened the second half with a nice drive, getting all the way down to the Eagles' three before Leftwich misfired and the team had to settle for a field goal. Philadelphia's response was to drive the length of the field, with McNabb capping the successful drive by hitting Lewis for a touchdown from 15 yards out. That gave Philly a 17-6 lead, and although the Jags kicked another field goal early in the fourth, the Eagles were never in any serious danger as Jacksonville didn't get past midfield after that. Stallworth's 14-yard touchdown with three minutes left provided unnecessary insurance.

Prediction: Eagles 24 - Jaguars 9

what i think
i feel like i'm repeating myself... the eagles cannot afford to lose this game, no way, no how. jacksonville has a tough defense and an offense that actually matches up pretty well against the birds d. factors working in the birds favor: home field, coming off two losses, getting stallworth and possibly hood back, jags stink on the road. factors working against the birds: game preceding the bye (a game with which the eagles have historically struggled), jags coming off embarrassing loss to the texans, transitioning from an immobile QB (leftwich) to a mobile QB (garrard).

jaguars o vs. eagles d
while the jags haven't done much on offense so far this season, they actually appear to match up pretty well against the eagles defense, at least to me anyway. they're built primarily as a power running team with fred taylor and mashers in the middle of the line, but they complement with a mid to deep passing game with three tall wideouts (matt jones, ernest wilford, reggie williams) and an emerging game breaker in maurice jones-drew. this offense may not be productive week to week, but with their power running game and tall wideouts, it is dangerous to the philadelphia eagles.

key for the eagles this week will be containing the running game of the jags, because they'll probably do a bit of running, especially up the middle. since the jags are tall but not necessarily fast in their wideout corps, the eagles may play michael lewis a lot this week and play him close to the line. the biggest danger is probably maurice drew, who already has 5 TDs this season and is effective as both a runner and a receiver (think mini-westbrook).

key matchups i'll be watching:
- eagle d-tackles against the jaguars samoan duo at guard
- matt mccoy covering jones-drew out of the backfield
- sheldon and lito matchup up against 6' 6" matt jones and 6' 4" reggie williams
- eagles ability to contain the mobility of garrard

(BTW wasn't he just "maurice drew" in college? anyone know the story behind that?)

eagles o vs. jaguars d
jags have a good defense, but they've been hit with a few injuries -- most notably starters mike peterson (LB) and reggie hayward (DE) -- and they don't rush the passer all that well. their best defensive players are massive tackles marcus stroud and john henderson and strong safety donovin darius (mcnabb's former teammate at syracuse), but none of those guys are difference makers against the passing game. looking at their roster, the jags secondary looks fairly non-descript (they even picked up ahmad carroll a few weeks back), but then you look at performance and the total appears to be greater than the sum of the parts. according to footballoutsiders, the jags are number 3 in the nfl against the pass so far this season, and that's without the benefit of a superior pass rush. they're only 12th best against defending the opposition's best wideout, but they're 6th against #2 wideouts, 1st against #3 and #4 wideouts, 3rd against TEs and 11th against RBs. (comparitively, the eagles are 5th against the pass and 14th against the rush, and are ranked 29th vs. #1, 10th against #2, 4th against #3 and #4, 14th against TE, and 4th against RB.)

after having moved up and down the field against every defense so far this season, the eagles may have found a defense that can match up against them. getting stallworth back will help everyone on the offense because baskett and avant won't have to play such key roles (making their expected rookie mistakes). still, against a team that doesn't rush the passer that well, don should be able to get the time he needs to carve them up enough, but i don't expect this game to be as high scoring as some others are predicting.

bottom line
somehow the line on this game is 7 points, but i think that's too much. the jags have been up and down, but they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. still, the eagles need this game and i cannot see them losing it. i expect the birds to play a mentally crisper game and make enough plays to win.

prediction
eagles 23 - jaguars 20

John Stevens

i didn't see any of the newspapers talking about this, but isn't new flyers coach, john stevens, also bobby clarke's son-in-law? or am i confusing him with someone else.

i know one of the long-term phantoms was clarkie's son-in-law.... maybe it was someone else.

Most Overrated Player

i'd find this SI.com player poll of the most overrated NFL players highly entertaining if me-o hadn't shown himself to be a pathetic creature who faked his own suicide to try to gain some sympathetic attention from either or both of his former fiancee and his baby mama.

Who is the most overrated player in the NFL?

Terrell Owens, 49ers.....10%
Brian Urlacher, Bears.....8%
Ray Lewis, Ravens.....7%
Michael Vick, Falcons.....7%
Eli Manning, Giants.....4%
Keyshawn Johnson, Panthers.....4%
Peyton Manning, Colts.....4%
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers.....3%
Charles Woodson, Packers.....3%
Warren Sapp, Raiders.....3%

In an accompanying SI PLAYERS poll that asked players to name the most underrated player in the NFL, voters picked Falcons RB Warrick Dunn (2.7%) and also cited Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander, Chiefs QB Trent Green, Colts WR Marvin Harrison and Steelers WR Hines Ward (2.4% each).

Screaming A Showing Some Remorse?

i guess in his sneaky kind of way, screamin' a is showing some remorse for being me-o's local mouthpiece through the ridiculousness last season.

Brown asked: "Whose manhood was questioned? Whose blackness was discussed on air? In columns?"

For that, I was rendered speechless.

well that's a first. hopefully some of it was some recognition that he was part of the lynch mob rather than being a journalist.

"What he did was almost destroy Donovan's ability to reach outside of just coming back this year and proving he can play football. Donovan was headed into another direction as a spokesperson, as an example for this whole damn country. Now he's just a football player trying to prove himself again because Terrell had us all looking at [what's wrong with] Donovan. So maybe Donovan is messed up, too.

Here's hoping he's not.

At least that's what we all want to believe.

"oh sh*t, jim brown is telling me that BS set all blacks back. hopefully no one remembers that i was an active participant."

Yet when listening to Brown, perhaps it's worth reflecting on the past one more time - what McNabb truly went through and what damage was done to him.

We can say it's nothing. Certainly nothing he won't overcome. But how can we ever truly know if we're not inside his soul, absorbing the wounds that were caused by one man's selfishness and a society's penchant for turning the other cheek on such matters?

Perhaps someone will have that answer someday.

I wish it had come sooner.

I'm sorry it didn't.

pffht. what a smuck.

Eagles DPAR and DVOA Ranks for Week 8

- TEAM - impossibly, the philadelphia eagles jump to 2nd in overall team efficiency after the debacle in tampa. the team drops to 2nd on offense, jumps to 8th on defense, and stays put at 18th on special teams. the birds have had the 25th hardest schedule up to this point, and have the 13th hardest from here on out. ranks for the other teams in the division breaks down like (DVOA/past schedule/future schedule): cowboys 11th/17th/9th, giants 4th/2nd/12th, redskins 19th/13th/1st. eagles are still the most consistent team in the nfl up to this point, having a variance of only 2.4% in their game performances, and more frustratingly, lead the nfl in expected wins at 6.1 (giants are tied for second at 5.7).

- QB - donnie franchise ranks 2nd in DPAR and 5th in DVOA

- RB - the little difference maker hope he stays healthy brian westbrook jumps to 4th in DPAR/4th in DVOA for rushing and 1st in DPAR/7th in DVOA for receiving

- WR - reggie brown ranks 3rd/2nd, donte' stallworth ranks 41st/32nd, hank baskett and greg lewis do not have enough catches to qualify in the rankings

- TE - lj smith ranks 6th/14th

- OL - no update yet, i'll update this post if/when they update these numbers

- DL - no update yet, i'll update this post if/when they update these numbers

Heard on WIP

got to give credit when it is deserved. i heard garry cobb mention on WIP this morning that gruden tipped the bucs d about a tendency he saw in the birds. i didn't get to hear the whole thing as i was leaving to head into the office, but the details are on his website.

here are some excerpts:

When the Eagles are in a formation with both receivers flanked out to the same side, they run a double slant when they read a blitz and Donovan hits the outside receiver on the slant route. Well, Jon Gruden knew that so he told his defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and sure as day when they saw the Eagles come out in the formation with both of the receivers flanked out to the same side, they went to a blitz and had Ronde Barber sucker the Birds.

I don't know what happened on the other interceptions but they were remarkably similar. The two other picks were 15 to 20 yard outs, that is not a coincident. I think Gruden saw something the Eagles were doing that was giving away those deep out routes and he told Monte Kiffin and his cornerbacks and they squatted on those routes and picked those two passes off. Normally when a receiver is running up field and he gets close to a defensive back, that DB has to turn and run with the receiver. Both of Tampa's corners squatted, that's unusual because they had to have known the route the Birds were running. Were those receivers going deep they would have been wide open because the corners didn't turn and run with them. The Eagles are tipping something off and Gruden picked it up.

Yes, McNabb threw the ball but it was the Eagles offensive coaches Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg, who were to blame. They didn't change any of their calls and automatics yet they knew there was a guy standing on the other sideline, Jon Gruden who knows their offense as well as they do. That's a lack of attention to detail and it's the reason that the city of Philadelphia is in mourning, today.

this is the kind of stuff that we should be reaming big red about. this is flat out unacceptable. it's the exact same reason the eagles would have lost the 2002 nfc championship game if that had been played. heck, even baseball coaches change their signals from time to time and for big series.

i don't know if this was hubris -- e.g. don't need to gameplan too hard for tampa -- or oversight, but don't tell me this same crap didn't lead into the 3 picks that don threw in jacksonville.

knowing this makes sunday's loss worse. i need a drink.

Bumble, Come Down Off the Ledge

bumble, i'm not saying that the eagles aren't making mistakes, they are, but your pessimistic nature (as you call it) may be causing you to ignore all of the positive traits the team is showing and overemphasizing the negative.

they are making mistakes, but mistakes can be corrected. it's not like they are getting killed in games and showing that they simply don't have enough talent.

this team is legitimately a few bad bounces away from 7-0. there were certainly some bad plays involved as well (mcdougle penalty, cole penalty, gaither 12 men of field), but even those are correctable as well.

i understand that there are no "moral victories", but this team has the potential to score from anywhere on the field, even with the receivers dropping balls. how scary are they going to be once the receivers get more in rhythm?

the season is far from over. aside from the fact that last year's superbowl champ gives you ample evidence that you don't need to dominate from start to finish to be the SB champ, you can hang your hat on the fact that over time the HOF caliber field goal kicking and unnaturally high fumble recovery rates will likely balance out.

They DO run a zone blocking scheme, albeit a different one from the Broncos and Falcons. They really put a lot of stress on their OT in their running game, an unfair and unrealistic move for huge mashers like they have in William and Runyan vs. the smaller speed OT like Denver and Atlanta have. They also expect their interior guys to make 2 gap blocks too frequently and they seldom employ double teams at the point of attack.

i do understand that no one runs a true man blocking scheme now because defenses are getting so sophisticated, but they really don't run all that much zone blocking. in fact, your statement that their interior guys have to make 2 gap blocks actually supports my statement that they are predominantly a man blocking team. they do run some zone blocking when they run counters or misdirections, but you never, for instance, see them run the staple of the zone blocking offenses -- the stretch play. that play is really taxing on the o-tackles because they have to slide out without losing alignment. i know that baldinger mentioned something about the birds expecting the tackles to get to the second level and block and LB, but that looks to be a man assignment, not a zone block.

I don't need to count down the big games where Donny was horrible in the clutch do I?

several of the games you mentioned were just games and of no special importance. let's review your list:

- Tampa 2002 (playoffs) - a huge loss, and if that game had actually happened, would still be incredibly painful
- Tampa 2003 (first Linc game), New England 2003 - i'm going to lump these together because if you recall correctly, something wasn't right with donovan at the start of 2003. could have been the thumb problem he was rumored to have or some other issue, but seems like he's over that now. regardless, these are just two regular season games.
- Carolina 2004 (WR didn't help him, but he threw 3 picks) - mcnabb didn't play that well, but only one of those picks was his fault (the last one), and you neglect to mention that he was also missing westbrook that day. egad, now that i think about it, how did that team even get to the nfc championship? no defensive players, pinky and thrash as your wideouts, no westbrook.
- Pittsburgh 2004 - a regular season game
- New England 2005 (Super Bowl, again 3 picks) - he didn't play that well, but he didn't get much protection either
- Dallas 2005 - you're going to hold this game against him? the guy could barely walk?

How about some clutch performances:
- Tampa 2000 - first playoff game. don makes all of the offensive plays in that game, the birds win 21-3
- Giants 2001 - first time don beats giants, remember the sliding thrash catch in the endzone? the giants dominated that game, yet don beat them at the end. luckily i was at this game.
- playoffs 2001 - bucs, bears, rams - don played great in those playoffs. yes, he threw that pick at the end of the rams game, but that was freddie mitchell not coming back to the ball.
- Cardinals 2002 - he plays the game and throws 4 TDs with a broken ankle. please keep in mind that michael vick had the same injury in 2003 and got carried off on a stretcher.
- Falcons 2002 - mcnabb comes back from injury and leads the team to a playoff win
- Packers 2003 - 4th & 26. leads the team to a comeback win in the playoffs against a HOF QB with a team that has it's whole defense out with injury and no offensive weapons
- playoffs 2004 - finally leads the team to the superbowl with an incredible amount of pressure on him to win the nfc championship. loses the SB to a guy who is not only the best defensive mind of his era but also is on a dynasty run

who has been a better clutch QB than don during his playing career? imo, only tom brady.

It is blatantly obvious that teams with good lines on both sides-Giants, Dallas, Steelers, Pats, Colts, Bears, Panthers, San Diego, Denver-are the league's elite.

did you see the dallas o-line in the game against the eagles? how about the colts d-line when they were giving up 200+ rushing yards to the titans? how about denver unable to protect jake plummer? or the giants with their average d-tackles? come on. the grass is not greener everywhere.

He refuses to adjust his play calling cadence to avoid blowing time outs unecessarily.

how can you conclude that it's stubbornness that is causing this? do you actually think that andy wants to blow timeouts? my conclusion is that it's hard to get plays in on time. he's constrained somewhat by that infernal worst coast offense with it's over-verbiage, but again, it's not unique to the eagles. especially in loud stadiums, teams blow timeouts all the time. regardless, this is not a critical issue. the analogy i'll use is how people are so freaked out by anthrax when driving is much more deadly. according to the analysis at footballcommentary.com, linked on the right of my blog as Model Based Analysis of Football Strategy (see here and here for some specific articles), timeouts really aren't that valuable in the grand scheme of things.

He refuses to get a bigger talented RB to salt games away late or he just refuses to run Buck late to do the same.

you're right about this one. i just don't understand it.

He refuses to establish the run early and then allow the run to turn your talented (despite drops) WR lose with play action.

how many coaches actually do this? very few. unless they feel that they are at a talent disadvantage, even most running coaches (parcells and fox) both pass to get a lead and run later in games. the best coach i've ever seen (belichick) won a SB with kevin faulk as his best running back and a 5 WR set. besides, why would reid do that? he's been pretty successful doing it his way. why isn't it you being stubborn?

He refuses to ever answer a good question, a question trying to pin him down as to why a specific breakdown happened with more than "I've got to do a better job there".

why should he change? his players appreciate the fact that he's never going to throw one of them under the bus. i like this about him. how does him providing more information/selling out his players make him a better coach?

I just feel this hostile backlash is from someone who dislikes everything that is 610 WIP and who refuses to acknowledge any of the points made on that show, some of which are very valid and in line with what actually happens on the field each week.

i can guarantee that this has nothing to do with WIP. they do provide some nuggets of information from time to time, but by and large they get hung up on minutia and look for things to criticize. often they lose sight of the big picture entirely.

I speak from my own observations, and my observations tell me that this team has under-achieved so far.

that is my point exactly. the fact is, they are 4-3 and are a few unlucky bounces/bad penalties away from a significantly better record. do you seriously expect them to underachieve for the entire season? how does that not give you some hope for improvement?

Why I Remain Positive

i thought this comment deserved it's own post and discussion:

Aside from Mc5, who chokes in big games, what do they really have going for them?

what's the definition of "big game"? there are plenty of important games that mc5 has played. i think it's unfair and misleading to play the cataldi game and discount every other game except for the last one of season. sure he's lost some, but he's won some too.

i'd argue that from a personal level, the regular season game a few weeks ago against the cowboys was the most important game of donovan's career -- and he certainly did not choke in that game.

why even play the games? seems like you have it figured out. mcnabb's a "choker". nice when you can distill people's essence into one work just like that, huh? must be nice to understand things at that level. just like the smart people who they figured out that staubach was a "choker" and elway was a "choker".

A weapon at RB who is always hurt, a TE who looks like a world beater one minute and a guy from Rutgers the next, a bunch of WR that cannot catch, an O line that can pass block but is hampered with a shitty zone blocking scheme that demands much more speed than they have, a D line that cannot make plays when push comes to shove, a LB corps full of slow guys, and a defensive backfiled that gives up the most big plays in the league.

first of all, the eagles do *not* use a zone blocking scheme. they use a man blocking scheme, which is why they line up mashers instead of smaller and more mobile linemen. second, i wish they would incorporate more zone blocking in their repertoire as it has proved to be very effective over the years when it comes to running the ball. the denver broncos and atlanta falcons are both zone blocking teams (think alex gibbs).

however, those are not the important points. here is why i remain positive despite your classification of the roster by focusing on their weaknesses: no team is perfect. except for the 1985 bears, who came darn close, every superbowl champion had flaws. this team has some serious strengths that you can choose to ignore but i choose not to.

1) despite his uneven performance today, mc5 , as you call him, is still playing QB just about as well as anyone in the game. somehow, today's game will go down as proof that he can't play, yet when other guys do it, it's a "4th quarter" comeback. mc5 played his heart (and stomach) out today and engineered 3, count 'em, 3 straight *clutch* touchdown drives. QB is the most important part of a team, and the eagles have one of the best.

2) line strength. there are only a handful of teams (steelers, patriots, seahawks, chargers, bears, panthers) that are strong on both sides of the line of scrimmage. line play is the second most important factor and the eagles are solid on both sides of the ball. the d-line may only be average at run stuffing and the o-line may only be average at run blocking (though they blocked very well today), but as an overall package both units are among the best in the league (top 10 at worst for each)

3) skill position players. despite your assessment, this is the best corps of skill position players the eagles have had under andy reid, probably by far. pinkston and thrash were good enough to get them to the NFC championship game with a defense that had 9 players on IR. andy will have them on the same page and playing well as we progress through the season.

4) coaching. despite his flaws, andy is still a damn good coach (a .622 winning percentage including today's debacle doesn't lie). is he perfect? nope. do i want to risk the chance to end up with a marion campbell or rich kotite or ray rhodes or mike mccormack or ed khayat again? nope, not me. think pittsburgh fans wish the steelers had fired bill cowher during the 13 years that the steelers didn't win a superbowl? andy reid took this team from nada to 3 NFC championship games and 1 superbowl -- in a row. that's not luck.

And a stubborn coach who won't adjust.

please cite some examples. is he stubborn because he won't listen to the screaming fans? how is that stubborn? why would he do something that he doesn't think is right? the eagles lead the nfl in 3rd quarter scoring. sounds to me like that's some adjusting right there.

Why does one conclude that these guys really are that good? They can out-scheme people at times, but at the end of the day, you are your record and that says they're .500.

because when they play their b-game they're blowing people out. because when they play their d-game or f-game, they're losing by only a figgie. what i see is a team that is learning how to put it together, not a team that is a struggling to stay competitive. the offense marched up and down the field against every defense they faced this season. sure, they're making critical mistakes and shooting themselves in the foot. maybe it will continue all season. maybe it will, but i'm betting it doesn't, and when it stops this team will very hard to stop. the defense hasn't been playing well, that is true, but there are positive signs here and there. based on past history, i'm betting that by the end of the season, JJ will have these guys playing pretty damn well. the corners are solid and will be better when hood is healthy, mccoy looks like he's going to be a real playmaker at "WILL", the d-line can get after the passer pretty well, and considine looks to be an upgrade over lewis in pass coverage.

Clarke Finally Gone

lost in the pain of the garbage eagles game today is the fact that after years of ineptitude, bobby clarke is finally gone. i wish they'd have kept hitchcock, but if he had to go with clarke, so be it. just wish it had been snider instead of hitch. any chance comcast will sell the flyers too?

with snider still in place, i'm betting we're still going to see the bill dineens, wayne cashmans, and craig ramseys of the hockey world coaching this team. hope he puts a real gm in place, but i'm expecting it will probably be holmgren or terry murray.

Game 7 Thoughts II

as bad as the eagles played today (and they did play like freaking garbage), they still should have won the game except for the longest game winning field goal in nfl history by a guy who hadn't kicked a field goal longer than 28! yards all stinking season.

- the fumble by avant set the tone for the day on offense, just mistake after mistake.

- the first "at fault" (to borrow a phrase from KC joyner) interceptions by don all season. the first one was don's fault as brown was covered, but reggie needs to come back on that ball and at least break it up! this has been a problem all season and he's not getting better at it. the second was just a great play by barber. ronde understands the birds hot routes and seems to really know how don thinks. barber had man responsibility on avant, but just sat at the line reading don's eye. just a great play. the third pick was similar to the first one, another great play by barber, but lewis needs to come back on that ball and break it up. donnie does deserve some credit for knuckling up and bringing the birds all the way back to take the lead.

- i'm going to vomit

- the second real play mcdougle has ever made (the eli manning hit was the first) and it ends up costing the birds 30 yards and 3 points. egad.

- another fumble, another recovery by the other team

- mccoy continues to play well

- too many drops again today, of course. westbrook, brown, schobel

- considine played well

- our defense stinks right now

- what an f-ing game. i'm still incredulous. that didn't really happen did it?

Game 7 Thoughts

i'm going to be physically ill.

Game 7 Preview

philadelphia eagles at tampa bay buccaneers

the birds let another one get away last week. they're still leading the division at 4-2 but the giants and cowboys are sitting just a half game back. they're still working through some inconsistencies and they still haven't been able to put a complete game together yet, but maybe there is a silver lining there. given the choice, i'd rather have them peaking in time for the playoffs than peaking now. i'll lay out my thoughts at the end, but first what some others think about the game:

footballoutsiders.com
- eagles drop to 3rd overall in DVOA, stay at 1st on offense, drop to 9th on defense and drop to 18th on special teams
- buccaneers come in ranked 23rd overall, 24th on offense, 20th on defense, and 27th on special teams

Arrrr! A pirate-themed team has won a game, and the high seas no longer be safe for scurvy land-lubbers! And the most treacherous pirate of them all is a scoundrel named ... Bruce. "Have you ever seen anything like this Toledo Rocket's blast off?" gushed Tampa Tribune columnist Martin Fennelly about rookie quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. "It's been part Johnny U. and part U2." Not that expectations are a little high after one win. Gradkowski faces an Eagles defense that beat itself with mental errors last week (let's all count to 11 together, children). They'll bounce back to salvage a win from their NFC South road trip. Fennelly will downgrade Gradkowski to Don Meredith and the Dandy Warhols next week.

les bowen

IF THE EAGLES don't bounce back hard this week, it might be a long season. Yeah, the Bucs woke up from their 0-4 start a week ago against Cincinnati, and looked more like the contenders they were supposed to be. But rookie quarterbacks don't beat Jim Johnson, even mobile ones like Bruce Gradkowski. This Bucs offense, 23rd in the NFL in passing, shouldn't light up Johnson's secondary. The Eagles should be able to control the ball, even (gasp) run it a bunch if they're so inclined. This is the league's No. 1 offense against No. 27. It shouldn't be much more complicated than that, though the Eagles have found some amazing ways to complicate things this year.

Prediction: Eagles 26, Bucs 17

vegas vic

Which group of Birds is gonna fly out of the chute? Sunday's first-half contingent that fell into a 17-3 hole against New Orleans, or the second-half powerhouse that outscored the Saints, 21-10? We're banking on the latter.

Prediction: Eagles (-5) over BUCS

tampa tribune/st. petersberg times

couldn't find a pick in either paper

espn scouts inc

Philadelphia is coming off a tough road loss in New Orleans and needs to get its season back on track against a Buccaneers team that starting to get its confidence back on offense. The Buccaneers will continue to attack on the ground with Williams to set-up the short, controlled passing attack.

The Eagles have an explosive offense that will move the chains, while the Buccaneers' defense will rely on a bend-but-don't-break philosophy, especially in the red zone. This is a big game for both teams and the Eagles are simply the better the team and will continue to maintain their slight lead in the NFC East.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 17

madden 07

Last week the Eagles lost on a field goal, and this week they won with a successful kick, getting a 33-yarder from David Akers with 3:17 left that provided the winning margin. The Philly defense still had some work to do after that, and they batted down a fourth-down attempt by Tampa QB Bruce Gradkowski, who ended the day with over 300 yards passing as he continued to prove himself to be a solid NFL QB.

Tampa took the lead in the first quarter on the first of Gradkowski's two touchdown tosses, but the Eagles answered as Donovan McNabb -- who ended with three TD passes of his own -- connected with Donte' Stallworth early in the second to tie it at 7-7. McNabb hooked up with Hank Baskett just before halftime to send the Eagles to the locker room up 14-7, but Cadillac Williams took the ball in on a short yardage play to bring the game even again in the third quarter -- and touchdown passes by each QB left it knotted yet again at 21-21 midway through the fourth, before Philly embarked on its game-winning drive.

Prediction: eagles 24 - buccaneers 21

what i think
the eagles cannot afford to lose this game, no way, no how. meanwhile, tampa is shedding players and looking toward next season. of course, this means that tampa is positioned to take it to the eagles in the early going because they have nothing to lose. john gruden is a little down on his luck lately, but he is still a formidable coach and game planner and is someone who has historically given JJ problems. still, the eagles are the better team overall, so i expect to see a relatively high scoring game but the birds should control most of the game.

buccaneers o vs. eagles d
the bucs have a lot of youth on offense, with a rookie QB (gradkowski), a second year tailback (williams), and a bunch of young o-linemen. they do have experience at receiver with joey galloway, ike hilliard, and michael clayton, but overall that is a pretty green group. the biggest matchup to watch is gruden against JJ. gru-dog has eaten up JJ in the past with both the raiders and buccaneers, but he's never had to do it with such a young crew. i expect gruden to play this game much the same way that the saints did -- get the ball out quickly, lots of 3 step drops, work the middle of the field. trotter will have to play a much better game in coverage than he did against the saints. downfield coverage should be at least a little improved with sean considine taking over deep responsibility from michael lewis.

eagles o vs. buccaneers d
this isn't the same bucs defense as in years past. while the bucs offense is pretty young, their defense is pretty old. ronde barber, simeon rice, and derrick brooks are all getting up in years and may have lost a step, that's not to say they're not still good players -- they are -- but they no longer dominate at the level they used to. one notable loss for them is booger mcfarland was recently traded and one possible weakness is that the bucs roll out the vulnerable will allen at free safety. the matchup i'm most concerned about is rice against tra thomas as tra has never been able to block simeon, and if tra cannot go then i'm not optimistic about rookie winston justice's chances against a polished pass rusher like rice. another concern is that the bucs still play primarily cover-2 so there may be limited opportunity to do a lot of deep passing on them. still, if the eagles are not shooting themselves in the foot, they'll score plenty of points.

bottom line
despite their young QB, the buccaneers have enough talent and coaching to make this game competitive. until the defense really starts to gel, teams will be able to put up points against the birds. the eagles are the better team, though, and there should be some desperation after that stupid loss last week.

prediction
eagles 27 - buccaneers 17

Eagles DPAR and DVOA Ranks for Week 7

- TEAM - the philadelphia eagles drop to 3rd in overall team efficiency, 1st on offense, drop to 9th on defense, and 18th on special teams. the birds have had the 26th hardest schedule up to this point, and have the 10th hardest from here on out. ranks for the other teams in the division breaks down like (DVOA/past schedule/future schedule): cowboys 6th/18th/7th, giants 5th/3rd/4th, redskins 18th/15th/2nd. eagles are still the most consistent team in the nfl up to this point, having a variance of only 2.8% in their game performances.

- QB - donnie franchise ranks 1st in DPAR and 4th in DVOA

- RB - brian westbrook ranks 11th in DPAR/8th in DVOA for rushing and 5th in DPAR/9th in DVOA for receiving

- WR - reggie brown ranks 7th/6th, donte' stallworth ranks 43rd/36th, hank baskett ranks 73rd/74th, and greg lewis does not have enough catches to qualify in the rankings

- TE - lj smith ranks 4th/10th

- OL - through six games, the jackson 5 ranks 7th in run blocking and 17th in pass protection. running behind william (nee tra) thomas continues to be a problem. the birds rank 5th sweeping left, 5th up the middle, 9th off right tackle, and 8th sweeping right, but a horrible 30th off left tackle.

- DL - the d-line ranks a predictable 21st against the run and 2nd in pass rushing.

Game 6 Thoughts

sorry for the lack of activity from me, i've been out of town and furiously busy since sunday night.

i don't think there is any reason to panic as a result of the loss to the saints, but there are several areas of concern.

- my biggest concern is one that has been growing for several years (dating back to the superbowl season): the league has caught up to JJ. we've discussed this several times, but JJ has specific tendencies and when the game is on the line he reverts to them. when an announcer can predict a blitz "JJ likes to blitz on the play after the opponent crosses the 50", you know you have to go back to the drawing board.

- michael lewis is obviously a concern. i know people like him and have been defending him, but the proof is in the pudding. in every game this season, lewis has given up some manner of big play. he is a good run defender, but not good enough to overcompensate for his coverage deficiencies like say a roy williams. roy sucks in coverage, but he can be devastating as a tackler. the same cannot be said for lewis. michael sucks in coverage and is good in run support.

- still cannot run the friggin ball. i'm a believer that points come in the passing game, but you need to shorten the game when you have a lead. the eagles are just not able to do that via the run. in past years, they were able to compensate by using the ball control passing game but that area seems to be lacking as well due to some combination of lack of timing/chemistry between don and the receivers and the damn *drops*.

- can someone on this team recover a fumble? can we try to do that please? i've never seen a team with such a low fumble recovery rate. i don't know if anyone tracks such things (i'm sure someone does, i'll look around a try to find something when i have more time), but the eagles must be hovering somewhere around 20% recovery rate for fumbles by both teams.

- has any team missed a field goal against the birds so far this season?

there is a glass half full aspect to this though. the eagles lost by three to a 5-1 team after a game where the didn't show up in the first half, no one could hold onto a pass, they made horrific momentum changing mistakes, and they had catastrophic defensive breakdowns. even with all that, they took the lead late in the game. assuming that JJ can fix whatever is wrong with the defense, i can still see them being a contender to do some damage in the playoffs.

Bailey Brothers

was reading some blah blah blah interview with champ bailey, but i did find something interesting: champ was one of three brothers. the three boys were named champ, boss, and ron. is that ridiculous?

i always thought it was hilarious that someone would actually name their kids "champ" and "boss", but it's beyond funny that they named the third one "ron".

Game 6 Preview

philadelphia eagles at new orleans saints

i think this would set up to be a classic let down game... *if* the giants game hadn't ended up in a loss. since the eagles already blew one just a few games ago, i don't see a letdown here. the saints are headed in the right direction with local product and once eagles QB coach sean payton at the helm, but they don't have the talent to match up with the birds just yet. i'll lay out my thoughts at the end, but first what some others think about the game:

footballoutsiders.com
- eagles jump to 2nd overall in DVOA, stay at 1st on offense, jump up to 7th on defense and drop to 11th on special teams
- saints come in ranked 11th overall, 9th on offense, 17th on defense, and 6th on special teams

That pfffst sound you hear is the Eagles depressurizing after last week's emotional win over the Cowboys. Wouldn't it be ironic if the Eagles beat the Big Tuna only to lose to Sean Payton, the Junior Tuna? Andy Reid's team usually avoids letdowns after big victories, but even a slight lapse in focus could be lethal against the spry Saints. Sure, the Saints may have allowed an unknown rookie quarterback to throw for 225 yards and two touchdowns, and their offense was just 3-of-12 on third downs against the Buccaneers. But these Saints are hardly beignets. "It's about winning games, and style points aren't important," Payton said, echoing this week's Rundown intro.

One reason the Saints keep winning is that they protect Drew Brees well: he's been sacked six times in five games, and the Buccaneers didn't get to him once last week. Keeping Brees vertical is this week's challenge; the Eagles lead the league with 23 sacks, and their front four has been getting to quarterbacks with only a minimal assist from blitzing linebackers. "Good gracious, they stayed in the backfield," receiver Reggie Brown said of his defensive teammates on Sunday. "They were eating lunch and having tea and crumpets back there." Brown, apparently, has been watching a lot of Miss Marple lately.

When Brees does get hit, he coughs up the ball, and the fumbling is one of the Saints' major weaknesses this season. Look for the Eagles to win the turnover battle this week, as ex-Saint Darren Howard, Darwin Walker, and their other linemen meet in the backfield for bangers 'n' mash. The Saints haven't beaten the Eagles since 1991, and they aren't up to the challenge this season.

les bowen

THIS IS GOING to be a tough game emotionally, and I think the Eagles' defense will have to take a step forward for them to win. They can't afford any 57-yard pass interference penalties on fourth-and-18 with the game on the line this time. Given what the Saints have done so far, I expect a really close game. But my rule right now with the Eagles is, show me how a team is going to shut down Donovan McNabb, if I'm going to pick them to beat the Birds. Other than a lot of general talk about a letdown, I haven't seen that this week.

Prediction:

Eagles 23, Saints 21

vegas vic

If Sunday wasn't such an emotional circus, we would have placed the Birds a bit higher, but as long as Donovan McNabb is on the field, the Eagles have a shot at covering every game.

Prediction: Eagles (-3) over SAINTS

way to break the game down, vic.

new orleans times picayune

couldn't find a pick from their writers, but i did find a pick made by a scouting service they subscribe to:

One might expect the Eagles to be experiencing a bit of a hangover after last week's big win over the Cowboys, but the M.O. for Andy Reid-coached teams has been a businesslike, bordering on emotionless, approach to success. Philadelphia knows it still has much work to do in a difficult division, and must remain focused in its quest to again become a part of the NFL elite. The Saints' demeanor has also been impressive, as they have summoned the emotion to play hard each week despite what some still believe to be an average base of talent. Expect New Orleans to give Philadelphia its best shot, but also expect a younger, less self-assured group of players to make one more mistake than the veteran Eagles in the fourth quarter en route to the franchise's first loss at the Superdome this season.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Eagles 28, Saints 22

espn scouts inc

This is the best team the Saints have faced so far this season, and this game will be a good test for them. The Eagles have a high-powered offense that can run and pass the ball at will. The Saints' defense has yet to face an offense with so many weapons, and could be outmanned at the skill positions.

Turnovers will play a key role as they always do. The Eagles' defense is back to full strength now that cornerback Lito Sheppard is healthy, and gives the secondary a much needed boost, as he will be able to handle the Saints' offense.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Saints 24

madden 07

The Eagles followed up their big win over the Cowboys last week by taking down this season's surprise team. Philly moved out to a solid 10-0 lead in this one and completely shut down the New Orleans offense for most of the first half, allowing only a late second-quarter touchdown on a Drew Brees pass to Joe Horn that cut the Eagles' lead to 17-7. The Eagles remained in control for the entire game, however, thanks to the running of Brian Westbrook, who finished with 186 yards on the ground, including 113 in the second half.

Donovan McNabb connected on three touchdown throws for Philly, throwing for first-half scores to Westbrook (who added 67 receiving yards to his incredible yardage total) and Donte' Stallworth. The McNabb-to-Stallworth connection clicked again in the third quarter to move Philadelphia's lead to 24-7, and they capped their offensive effort with a 12-play, 66-yard drive that ended in a field goal and bled six minutes from the clock in the fourth quarter. That left little time for Brees to rally his Saints, although he certainly tried, connecting with Horn and Devery Henderson for touchdowns in the final period that made the score a bit closer.

prediction: eagles 31 - saints 21

what i think
the saints are a fiesty team who got a big win over a decent atlanta squad by riding a wave of emotion and getting an early lead against a team that cannot pass. i usually don't like the argument i'm about to use, but in this case, i think it applies -- the saints have not played anyone and they are definitely taking a step up in class. not only do i like the birds in this game, i love the eagles to cover the line as a road favorite (currently the line is -3, but it's running at -125).

saints o vs. eagles d
the saints have some decent skill position players -- deuce mcallister is a good and powerful running back, joe horn was once a borderline elite wideout, drew brees is a decent qb, reggie bush is a media darling, and marques colston is a TE playing wideout -- but their o-line is only average. their best player is probably jammal brown -- a second year player who moved to LT this year and is a mean sob -- but the rest are "just another guy" type players.

i don't expect the d-line to come out with the same fire that they did last game, but a decent effort should be good enough to control this game. horn doesn't have the speed he once did, and colston is huge but shouldn't be a threat to get behind the defense. i expect JJ to gameplan a little more for the run than he did against the cowboys. michael lewis will probably spend a little more time in the box, with the goal of stopping the saints running game and putting them into 2nd/3rd and long. also, i'll be surprised if they don't jump into nickel defense every time reggie bush is on the field. he's a much bigger threat as a receiver than a runner.

eagles o vs. saints d
the saints have a pretty decent defensive line themselves. will smith and charles grant are a big reason why the saints felt comfortable letting darren howard go. in many ways, those three guys are the same type of player -- old school defensive ends who play the pass and the run effectively. smith and grant are probably the best players on that defense. at tackle, the saint run out brian young -- a smallish, high-motor d-tackle (think paul grasmanis with a little more strength) -- and our buddy hollis thomas.

think about the saints linebackers this way... the eagles linebackers are probably the weakness of the defense and not a single saints linebacker would start for the eagles. fujita, simoneau, and shanle are all journeyman players and are competent but not playmakers.

the secondary has two decent professional cornerbacks in mike mckenzie and fred thomas. safeties are a weakness -- omar stoutmire, who once played for the giants, is just a guy, and josh bullocks is a second year player.

this is not a defense that is going to contain the eagles offense on it's own.

bottom line
unless the eagles turn the ball over a lot and play in a generally disinterested fashion, the game should be well in hand by the third quarter. it's a home game for the saints, so there should be some emotion there, but don't expect the same wave of intensity (and luck) that they caught for the atlanta game. the eagles have a clear talent edge at almost all positions in this game except for probably RB, and they should ride that edge to a solid win.

prediction
eagles 30 - saints 16

Troy Vincent Released

you got your wish, joe. the bills released troy today and he's free to sign with anyone.

if the eagles had any thoughts of signing him, who would they cut to free up roster space for him?

as much as i love troy, i wouldn't cut considine and i don't think troy can play SS (which quentin mikell can). does he have enough left to play corner? buffalo didn't think so.

i'll be happy to see him back in eagles green, but not at the cost of a contributing player.

Thursday Links

- from phil - notes that we were recently having a discussion on scrapplelog that was similar to this article about the development of "running" quarterbacks posted on boston sports media watch from bill barnwell of football outsiders

- from bumble - dan morgan is out for the season... again. sayeth dave "This guy continues what is a long line of over-rated, over-hyped Miami players in the NFL, but he may be the worst. He has never been that good and he is hurt every year. Shows why a 1st round LB is probably not smart money spent…unless you have a freakish Urlacher or Ray Lewis guy."

- interesting article by Benjamin Alamar of Menlo College titled "the passing premium puzzle" (link found on football outsiders.com), where he tries to analyze the reason behind why teams continue to run as much as they do even though the expected outcome of passing is much greater. (requires free registration to view) excerpts below:

Football, at least in the National Football League (NFL), has a similar puzzle: the passing premium puzzle. Specifically, the passing premium puzzle is while the passing game has significantly better returns than the running game, teams choose to run as frequently as they choose to pass.

The empirical evidence will demonstrate first that, while the passing game has become more efficient over time, teams have not changed their mix of passing and running to meet this change and second that there is a passing premium for the vast majority of teams and that they do nothing to capitalize on this premium. This does not suggest that teams should not run at all, but rather that they should simply run less.

The passing game has become more efficient and less risky over time, yet these positive changes in the passing game have not been matched by an equal increase in the use of the passing game. While passing has become more frequent, the increase in passing frequency has not kept pace with the improvements to the passing game.

The payoff for any football play is yardage. The most straightforward way of expressing the payoff of any type of football play is in yards per attempt. A straight yards per attempt calculation does not however, properly account for either interceptions or touchdowns. ..... In the adjusted yards per attempt calculation, each interception is counted as -45 yards and each touchdown is counted as 10 yards. With these adjustments, the yards per pass attempt has increased from 4.66 in 1960 to 5.8 in 2005, a 24% increase. During the same time frame, yards per rush attempt were essentially flat.

In 2005, there were 4,738 plays on first and ten in which the offense was between 60 and 80 yards from the end zone. Of these plays 2,380 (or 50.2%) were running plays. As a gain of four yards or more is generally considered a successful first down play (Carroll, et al. 1988, Schatz 2004, Schatz, et al. 2005), the distribution of the yards gained on each running play in this sample shows that 1,383 or 58.11% of all running plays on first and ten would not be considered successful. The median of the plays that were not successful was 1 yard. This indicates that running on first and ten, is, nearly 60% of the time, not successful.

The cumulative distribution of passing plays on first and ten in 2005 is very different from the rushing distribution. Again, using four yards as the marker of success, only 46.52% of all pass plays were not successful on first down in 2005. The median of the passing plays that were not successful was 0 yards.

There is a situation in which teams pass more frequently than they run, and that is on third and long (defined as third down with seven or more yards to go for the first down). On third and long, teams passed the ball 88% of the time in 2005. Defenses were not surprised by the pass in these situations, as all teams exhibited this tendency, so defenses were designed to stop the pass before the run. Some coaches claim that surprise in the passing game is effective which would imply that passing should be less effective when the defense is expecting it.

These results indicate that the element of surprise helps the running game by increasing the mean result of the play, while predictability in the passing game does not tend to lower the mean result of passing plays. While the situations are clearly different, there is further evidence to suggest that teams do not pass enough. Not only would passing increase the total output of the offense, it may increase the efficiency of the running game as well.

Conclusion

There are two possible conclusions that could be drawn from the calculations above. First. the calculations do not properly present the costs and benefits of running and passing. This is possible as the data is either aggregated (historical) or on a play-by-play basis (2005 data). It could be that there is some benefit to “establishing the run” that these calculations do not recognize, even if, while “establishing the run,” teams do not gain as many yards as efficiently as they could. A more thorough drive-by-drive analysis could potentially uncover this effect if in fact it does exist.

A second possible conclusion is that, for all of their planning and late nights NFL coaches do not act in a fully rational manner. This is not an original conclusion as Romer (Romer 2002) first showed and Surowiecki (Surowiecki 2004) has attempted to explain, NFL coaches opt to kick field goals or punt instead of attempting to get a first down much more frequently than the actual payoffs to these choices would indicate is rational. The data on the passing premium indicate a clear advantage (that has grown over time) to the passing game with little change in the frequency in which teams use the pass. The existence of the passing premium indicates that teams should pass more frequently and coaches, as a group, are not acting rationally when they run as much as they pass.

Eagles DPAR and DVOA Ranks for Week 6

- TEAM - the philadelphia eagles rank 2nd in overall team efficiency, 1st on offense, 7th on defense, and 11th on special teams. the birds have had the 24th hardest schedule up to this point, but have the 11th hardest from here on out. schedule difficulty for the other teams in the division breaks down like: cowboys 11th/17th, giants 4th/6th, redskins 9th/3rd. eagles are also the most consistent team in the nfl up to this point, having a variance of only 0.5% in their game performances.

- QB - donnie franchise ranks 1st in DPAR and 3rd in DVOA

- RB - brian westbrook ranks 9th in DPAR/4th in DVOA for rushing and 2nd in DPAR/6th in DVOA for receiving

- WR - donte' stallworth ranks 38th/37th, reggie brown ranks 25th/30th, and greg lewis and hank baskett do not have enough catches to qualify in the rankings

- TE - lj smith ranks 6th/18th

- OL - have not yet been updated, i'll update this post when football outsiders publish the numbers

- DL - have not yet been updated, i'll update this post when football outsiders publish the numbers

Flyers Looking to Sign Brian Leetch

always looking to make the big splash, the flyers have contacted brian leetch's agent about his interest in joining the team.

yes! the 1998 stanley cup is ours!

any chance that vanbiesbrouck is still available?

CLARKE MUST GO!

Eagles Thoughts and Monday Links

- anyone else think that lito basically played himself into the pro-bowl yesterday?

- don's performance so far this season has me thinking how brutal it must have been for him having to play most of his career with the torrance smalls and james thrashes of the world as his primary receivers. brown, baskett, and stallworth are not stars, they're just good, professional receivers. to think about what might have been if they'd had competent receivers all along. from david aldridge's article in today's inquirer (i posted to a comment earlier as well):

They grow on you, Baskett and Brown. And they're growing on McNabb. He had enough confidence in Baskett to tell him a couple of series before that if the Cowboys blitzed a cornerback not to break off his route to a hitch pattern - which is the standard read on such a play.

So, when Dallas sent cornerback Anthony Henry on a weakside blitz, Baskett knew to continue on his go pattern down the sideline.

McNabb "said, 'Watch the corner blitz,'" Baskett said. "The man must be psychic or something."

No, just good. Real good.

- can't say enough about how that 87 yard bomb reflects on don and his development in all aspects of the game. a) parcells said in his post-game press conference that the defense they called was the exact right defense for defending that play, b) don seemingly knew the cowboys were going to call that defense to counter that play and adjusted baskett's route to counter the dallas call, c) he then proceeds to showcase his athleticism by avoiding the rush of the oncoming greg ellis , and wraps it up by d) firing a perfectly thrown bomb, hitting baskett in stride.

- here's what the ft. worth star telegram had to say about mcnabb's performance

Meanwhile, there's the Eagles, outmanned talent-wise in comparison to the Cowboys, except at quarterback.

But the greatness of Mr. Donovan McNabb overcame the shortage of what he had to work with, which for this game, didn't include injured receiver Donte Stallworth, his one playmaker downfield.

Something else missing was a running game to balance out the defense for McNabb. He was on his own, and not only survived, but prospered and won. That's a quarterback.

Explain to me this:

How could any receiver in the NFL decide it's a good idea not to play with McNabb? And also create enough of a personal firestorm with this quarterback to have his butt run out of Philly?

What kind of idiot would do something like that?

- from another writer at the star-telegram, who describes herself as a "little ball of hate"

An interception has his Cowboys teammates reeling, and he reacts by throwing a temper tantrum, as if what happened was some personal affront to him. Of course, in his wacky world, he had been wronged.

Bledsoe screwed him on his big day.

Seriously, does anybody really buy that T.O.'s panties were in a wad for any reason other than the fact that his much-ballyhooed return to Philly had been a big bust?

And where exactly was his righteous indignation at himself when he alligator-armed a Bledsoe pass?

What bothers me about T.O. is what a hypocrite he is. He devoted pages in his book to how his feelings were hurt by Donovan McNabb yelling naughty words at him in a huddle yet, somehow, it is OK for him to go after Bledsoe.

And mark my words, Bledsoe is about to start receiving the T.O. QB treatment.

"You watched the game didn't you? Who is pulling the trigger?" T.O. cryptically said after Sunday's loss. "I'm just out there just doing my job. I'm trying not to point fingers at anybody. You guys know just as well as I know."

Hmmm, if it sounds like a rat? It is probably T.O.

- JJ's take on the game

"We covered good,'' said Johnson, whose secondary had given up five touchdown passes and 18 plays of 20 yards or more in the first four games. "We challenged the receivers, for the most part. We didn't let Glenn and T.O. have any deep passes. We kept a safety back and played a lot of man-3 blitzes.

"We were going to be aggressive the whole game. We started off the first series with an aggressive blitz and kept coming after him and not letting up. And we never gave up the big play.''

- this slip in reuben frank's game review made me chuckle

Eagles' inactives were Dont Stallworth (hamstring) and Rod Hood (heel), plus healthy inactives Dedrick Roper, Max Jean-Gilles, Pat McCoy, Winston Justice and Sam Rayburn. Heel has missed the last three games since getting hurt against the Giants. Stallworth has missed two of the last three games.

- jack mccaffrey found it entertaining that me-who had to hold up donnie franchise as the example for how QBs are supposed to play in an effort to throw drew bledsoe under the bus

So if Owens were destined to be the day’s comic foil or the target of chants, jeers and signs, well, neither Drew Bledsoe nor anyone else should have been expected to provide the human shield. He brewed the atmosphere, so it was up to him to find a way to breathe. But before leaving the Linc, his Cowboys no better in the NFC East standings for the visit, Owens tried one last time to do what he’d always done best: Find an opening. Ironically, that opening was McNabb, for in order to best project his opinion that Bledsoe was to blame, Owens was forced to use his former quarterback as the how-to exhibit.

And, as is said of any great display of gymnastics, he stuck it. Owens somehow found a way to diminish his own quarterback with back-door praise of the guy whose text messages he wouldn’t even acknowledge.

"They are professionals," Owens said of the Birds’ young wide receivers. "And Donovan did a great job of giving those guys opportunities by putting the ball in the air. They did what they are supposed to do."

It was absolutely beautiful, and a verbal trick for the ages ..Terrell Owens borrowing McNabb’s excellence for his own benefit.

Game 5 Thoughts

what an exciting game! non-stop action between two good teams and lots of big plays on both sides. started a little sloppy with both sides probably a little too hyped, but things settled down into an intense and tight battle. even the crowd was at playoff game intensity today.

- what a game by mcfranchise! a couple of throws did get away from him, but he played an unbelievable game today. some of the throws he made today were sick -- bomb to baskett in the first quarter that hank couldn't haul in, bomb to baskett for a TD, bomb to reggie brown on the flea flicker, bomb to LJ to take the momentum back after the demarcus ware touchdown -- all of these throws were perfect. is there any doubt that if you switched the QBs in the game, dallas would have crushed the birds in this game? don is dominating at a level that i've only seen one other eagles player reach -- reggie white in 1987 and 1988.

- what a game by the d-line! seven sacks today against a team that came in only giving up 3 all season. holy moly. darwin walker, trent cole, and darren howard were all dominant while pass rushing today. they were sacking or hitting bledsoe on what seemed like half of the dallas pass plays. the run defense wasn't so great, but i suspect a lot of that had to do with making sure that me-o and terry glenn stayed in check. not a lot to complain about with this d-line, these guys can all flat out play.

- nice to see you back lito! this was the best game lito has played as a pro. even if you took the interceptions away, lito played an excellent game. his coverage was nearly impeccable and he was as physical as i've ever seen him. (did you see the hit he laid into witten? wow. that's 185 lb. corner creaming 250 lb. TE)

- JJ seemed pretty glad to have lito back. it appeared to me that JJ played as much press coverage today as he used to when bobby and troy were the corners.

- shawn barber was another guy who had an unbelieveable game. he was the best linebacker on the field -- making big hits all over the place, throwing guys to the ground, great in coverage, even making tackles on special teams.

- demarcus ware is an impressive player. sack on mcnabb going around tra like he wasn't even there. dragged down buck from behind on a sweep to the left. the fumble return was a nice play as well.

- good job by andy starting the game out with short throws to let don calm down and not let adrenaline affect the way the game started. couple of instances where i questioned him: why didn't andy challenge either 3rd and 1 spot after the bledsoe sneak or the one TO long catch that looked like it might not have been a catch. not sure how these plays looked on tv or on replay, but both of those sure looked like they could have been overturned.

- most frustrating fat [guy] moment for me: it's 3rd and inches, why in blazes do you call a pass for LJ instead of sneaking it with your best player?

- LJ attempted "tackle" on the ware touchdown was the most pathetic and embarrassing effort i've seen since the time pinkston turned away from the ball.

- i bet darwin is going to get it pretty good from his teammates for letting drew bledsoe outrun him to the corner for a first down.

Game 5 Preview

dallas cowboys at philadelphia eagles

the circus is coming to town and eagles nation is riled up and ready for action. hopefully no one will do anything stupid. actually, my wish is for people to ignore me-o completely because that's what would hurt him the most. don't boo him. don't bring signs. no burning in effigy. no throwing pills. no nurses outfits. alas, there is virtually no chance that can happen, at least not while that public menace angelo cataldi is still on the airwaves.

this is a scary game for many reasons. i'll lay out my thoughts at the end, but first what some others think about the game:

footballoutsiders.com
- eagles maintain their position at 4th overall in DVOA, stay at 1st on offense, jump up to 9th on defense and 10th on special teams
- cowboys come in ranked 6th overall, 3rd on offense, 7th on defense, and 27th on special teams

If cornerbacks Lito Sheppard and Rod Hood aren't healthy on Sunday, the Cowboys will win easily. Fourth cornerback Joselio Hanson, who started against Green Bay, has little experience and weighs 170 pounds after a chili cook-off. If he starts, Owens and Glenn will spend the day singing "Mmm, Bop!" in the end zone. Even with Sheppard back, the Eagles will be hard-pressed to cover Glenn, who had two big games against them in the Cowboys sweep last season. Similarly, the Eagles need Brian Westbrook back, and Monday night injuries to Donte' Stallworth and Reggie Brown could leave them too short-handed to compete on Sunday.

But the Cowboys have injury issues of their own. Andre Gurode may miss some time, thanks to his treatment at the foot of defensive tackle/Droog Albert Haynesworth. Backup Al Johnson has experience, but the Cowboys can't afford any miscommunication when the Eagles start blitzing. And yes, the Eagles will blitz: their best bet for protecting their banged-up cornerbacks is to flatten Drew Bledsoe.

les bowen

IN PICKING the Eagles to win this week, I am violating two of my guiding principles. My first rule is, fans don't win games. Just because the city is all pumped doesn't mean the team will do well. This lesson was learned and relearned through many Flyers Stanley Cup runs I covered, and it became established doctrine as I watched the numbed hordes file out of Veterans Stadium for the last time following the Eagles-Tampa Bay NFC Championship Game.

Rule No. 2, I call the "Biggest Jerk Theory." In any really important athletic contest, the biggest jerk tends to win. This is my explanation for George Steinbrenner. Whatever happens Sunday, Donovan McNabb will still be a decent, team-oriented person, and Terrell Owens will still be a self-obsessed nut case. But rest assured, if Owens' team wins, somebody somewhere will take this as validation of Owens' unique world view. It's among the most irritating and most predictable sports phenomena.

Somehow, though, I still see the Eagles getting it done Sunday, maybe because I think McNabb will do whatever he needs to do to make that happen - run, pass, complete passes to himself, play special teams, fill in at nickel corner, drive the injury cart. Also, I believe there is a good chance that the Eagles are the NFC East's best team, even if they need to heal up a little and develop some consistency before they're really ready to prove that. The Birds really, really want to win this game, not so much because of T.O., but because of 0-7 - their current streak in the division.

But maybe it just comes down to not wanting to face all the grief I'll take if the Eagles win and I picked the Cowboys.

Prediction: Eagles 26, Cowboys 23

vegas vic

Donovan McNabb has been - let's say spectacular - so far, leading the Birds to the No. 1 offensive ranking (426.5 yards per game) in the NFL. Mix in a little double revenge from last year, and Philly will celebrate a win.

Prediction: EAGLES (-2) over cowboys

dallas morning news
a mix of eagles and cowboys picks. the two guys who cover football full-time -- matt mosely, the cowboys beat writer, and rick gosselin, who covers general nfl topics -- both pick the eagles to win.

espn scouts inc

There is no love lost between these two teams and the addition of Owens to Dallas' roster makes things even more interesting. The Cowboys' defense is by far the best the Eagles' offense has faced this year, and the 3-4 scheme that the Cowboys run has always given the Eagles problems. The Eagles are banged up on both sides of the ball but more critically on offense. Look for the Cowboys to pull the upset.

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Eagles 23

what i think
this game scares me. i'm not 100% certain about the outcome, but one thing i'm fairly confident about -- it will be high scoring.

here are some things i see on the plus side:
- the eagles have been pointing to this game since the season has started. everyone on the roster and the coaching staff is primed for the game. this is andy reid's equivalent of the ray rhodes 4th & 1 game, and i'm sure he has a good plan in place.
- mcnabb is playing better than he ever has. i'm sure he'll do everything humanly possible to win this game.
- the birds will come out with a lot of fire and emotion and should be able to take it to the cowboys early.
- the o-line and d-line (especially the d-line) have both been dominant at times this season
- drew bledsoe is not good under pressure
- the cowboys o-line hasn't been good the last few seasons
- westbrook and lito should be in the lineup
- a big question mark coming into the season (LB) has actually been a strength

here are some things that i see on the negative side:
- the cowboys o-line has actually played pretty well this season
- JJ sometimes reacts to teams playing max protect by blitzing more and leaving the secondary more vulnerable to big plays
- a non-question mark coming into the season (DB) has actually been a weakness
- eagles may come out too fired up and either shoot their load or make mental mistakes
- mcnabb may come out too fired up and try to do too much by himself
- the eagles are more injured than the cowboys (who come into the game relatively healthy)
- the eagles struggle with speed receivers and weren't able to cover terry glenn even before he had me-o on the other side

cowboys o vs. eagles d
i think there are two approaches that the cowboys may take: 1) come out and try to pound out the yardage, taking the crowd out of the game and survive the inital eagles surge or 2) come out and put the ball in the air to take a lead, attacking the eagles biggest weakness with their greatest strength. i believe the cowboys will attempt option 2 because parcells really only attempts to shorten the game when he is at a talent disadvantage. i don't believe that he thinks the cowboys are at a talent disadvantage in this game. i also don't think that he fears the eagles crowd, being a veteran of the NFC east for many years. i think their gameplan will be to come out in max protect and chuck the ball downfield early, hoping to grind out the clock once they get a lead.

as simon mentioned a few days back, i think the way to counter a max protect offense is by playing great coverage and dropping back. blitzing against a team keeping 2 TE back to block is risky because the success rate of the blitz is lower so your opportunity for giving up big plays is higher. my hope is that JJ comes out with a more conventional look and does less blitzing. one thing in their favor is that drew bledsoe does not play well in offenses designed to getting the ball out of his hands quickly -- something that has hurt the eagles in several games this season -- so that is something that JJ may not have to worry about. all of it hinges on the d-line getting pressure. if they get pressure the eagles can win. if they get little or no pressure from the d-line i have a tough time seeing the birds win this game.

i'd also like to see the eagles match up the corners instead of assigning them a side. me-o is too physical for lito and glenn is too fast for sheldon. i think having lito on glenn and sheldon on me-o is the best matchup the eagles can hope for on any pass play... not that either matchup will necessarily go in the eagles favor, unfortunately.

eagles 0 vs cowboys d
how the eagles play probably depends at least a little on whether or not westbrook plays. we haven't seen much of westbrook split out wide this year. expect to see it in this game. the matchup they'll be looking for is westbrook one-on-one against roy williams (who is horrible in coverage). if westbrook cannot play, it will take this whole dimension out of the gameplan.

the cowboys play 3-4, so right off the bat, you know that's going to give the eagles some trouble. fortunately, the parcells 3-4 tends to be a little less confusing than others because he doesn't zone blitz as much. unfortunately, the eagles struggles against the 3-4 seems to be as much about their unfamiliarity with the various gap assignments and technique differences as anything else. one positive is that jamaal jackson gives them a shot at blocking the nose tackle, something they haven't been able to do in several years.

the cowboys d-line is very good, their linebackers have good size and speed, their secondary is very solid. no real weaknesses on that defense and certainly it is the best defense the eagles have faced so far. still, i think the eagles will be able to score on them. mcnabb is playing too well for them not to. there is a concern about how don will react to the emotions of the game – e.g. coming out too hyped or trying to do to much -- but he knows this is a huge test of his legitimacy and i expect him to rise to the challenge.

overall, i expect a high scoring game, especially if the cowboys come out throwing like i think they might. i'm going to caveat my prediction because, as dave/bumble mentions, the issue of whether or not westbrook is going to play may impact the outcome.

prediction if westbrook plays: eagles 27 - cowboys 24
prediction if westbrook sits: eagles 20 - cowboys 24