Friday, January 04, 2008

More Reid as a Drafter

ok, so the debate has evolved from "reid is a bad drafter" as we discussed/debunked here, here, here, and here, to:
I am not down on Reid's drafting as much as I used to be, but his forte is definitely not Playmakers, especially offensively (outside Westbrook of course)
the original analysis showed andy reid drafts to be more than competitive against the teams originally identified to be very good at drafting, but this is a more specific concern so let's take a look at his playmaker drafting vs other top teams.

NOTE: there is some noise in this because position assignments were based on what the player played in college or how they were listed in the draft rather than where they ended up in the pros (e.g. shawn andrews and todd herremans are both classified as tackles)

Hit Percentage by Position (offense)
Broncos Eagles Steelers Ravens Cowboys Chargers Patriots Colts
QB 25.0% 33.3% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 20.0% 0.0%
RB 28.6% 20.0% 0.0% 40.0% 33.3% 25.0% 14.3% 66.7%
WR 0.0% 10.0% 22.2% 10.0% 0.0% 25.0% 16.7% 100.0%
TE 50.0% 33.3% 20.0% 25.0% 20.0% 0.0% 12.5% 50.0%
T 100.0% 50.0% 28.6% 66.7% 0.0% 37.5% 28.6% 0.0%
G 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 25.0% 25.0% 50.0% 33.3%
C 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% 0.0%

Average Rating by Position (offense)
Broncos Eagles Steelers Ravens Cowboys Chargers Patriots Colts
QB 1.50 2.33 1.50 1.40 1.00 2.25 1.80 1.00
RB 2.14 1.80 1.50 2.20 2.00 2.25 1.57 2.67
WR 1.38 1.50 1.67 1.40 1.33 1.75 1.67 4.00
TE 2.25 2.00 1.60 1.75 1.80 1.67 1.38 2.00
T 3.00 2.33 1.71 2.33 1.25 2.00 1.71 1.00
G 1.00 1.17 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.75 2.50 1.67
C 1.75 1.00 1.00 2.20 1.50 1.67 3.00 1.00

the small sample sizes preclude a definitive conclusion, but they haven't fared all that well at some skill positions. the birds are competitive at QB, TE, and T, but RB, WR, G, and C not so hot. the birds fare significantly better on average rating than hit percent on offense, which is interesting, possibly indicating that they don't draft as many 1s as other teams but also don't draft as many 3s, 4s, and 5s.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good analysis TMG. I watched a bunch of bowl games this year, and no player blew me away as a "gotta have". I love Jake Long from Michigan and McFadden, but no one else floored me. Anyone sneak on to your interest list?


9:33 PM EST  
Blogger Big Dog said...

Chris Long from Virginia is a beast. Of course he has it in his blood. I think the TE from USC that won the Mackey is a beast. I don't know what year he is. I actually liked Joe Flacco and Chad Henne as QBs. I don't by the Dennis Dixon or Colt Brennan theory AT ALL. Henne really impressed me in the Florida Bowl Game. I think Tebow is an interesting athlete and needs to develop more as a passer, than a FB to play in the NFL. I think LSU and Ohio State have some tough Defensive Lineman, plus I really like Dan Connor

3:23 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Heard a stat today that the new GM for the Giants saw all 7 of his 2007 draft picks (his first draft incidentally) play in the playoff win over Tampa. then I look at the 2007 draft for the Birds and I just get angrier.


3:00 PM EST  
Blogger The Mean Guy said...

i only wish ill upon chad henne just like i wished ill on dan kendra and ron powlus. and kevin jones.

3:19 PM EST  
Blogger The Mean Guy said...

Heard a stat today that the new GM for the Giants saw all 7 of his 2007 draft picks (his first draft incidentally) play in the playoff win over Tampa. then I look at the 2007 draft for the Birds and I just get angrier.

why are you looking for stuff to get angry about? my reaction to that is: so what?

what role did these guys play?

you can't judge things on a single data point/one draft. you can find bad drafts in anyone's history (and 2007 eagles draft doesn't look to be a bad draft to me anyway).

seriously, what's so great about:

Aaron Ross
Steve Smith
Jay Alford
Zak DeOssie
Kevin Boss
Adam Koets
Michael Johnson
Ahmad Bradshaw

we won't know for a couple of years, but i think it's possible that bradley, abiamiri, and kolb could all be better than every giants pick this year. who knows? why let something like a random stat like that make you get up in arms?

would you trade the entire giants team for the entire eagles team right now?

i wouldn't.

3:24 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am frustrated that they never let Abiamiri play meaningful snaps despite the fac t that Howard and Kearse clearly could not play. He might be great, but he lost a year he could've gotten good game time. I am frustrated that Celek was so uninvolved all year in the offense. I am frustrated that Tony Hunt, the big pounding back, got about 6 carries all year. I am glad/frustrated about Kolb as this hopefully means Donny stays. Most of all, I am in disbelief that their secondary is in that bad of shape and they cut Barksdale and Gaddis.

I don't think the Giants are great, but they have a much better defense, better QB (2007 only, that will change when Don gets healthy), much more dedication to running the ball, and better WR than the Birds. I'd trade D line and WR straight up only. My point was only that rookies can play and make an impact, contrary to what Big Red believes.


10:26 PM EST  
Blogger The Mean Guy said...

i completely understand where you're coming from, and those are among the reasons why i'm done with andy reid as the coach.

andy reid the GM and evaluator of talent is better than most and i'd like to keep him. andy reid the manager of personnel and game strategy is incredibly frustrating.

10:36 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

TMG, your buddy John Smallwood in today's daily news beats up big red pretty good for his personnel decisions. I'd say he and bumble are better pals right now.


7:20 PM EST  
Blogger The Mean Guy said...

yeah, i saw that this morning. just a lot of blah blah blah, this is my opinion based on nothing.

for instance here is a quote from the article "Even more troubling is that of 38 players drafted in the first four rounds from 1999 through 2006, 20 were not on the 2007 roster."

what's his comparison. for all he knows, this would put the eagles as one of the top teams in the nfl. what's his basis for this number being troubling? he's an idiot.

how about this? i've seen a stat that says 40% of all first round picks are busts. according to john smallwood's stat, 42% of the eagles drafted in the first four rounds are still on the team. jeez based on that, seems like the eagles are actually doing a decent job.

10:32 PM EST  
Blogger Morty said...

Add a healthy LJ, add a legitimate deep threat wide reciever (bring back Donte?) some more consistent O-line play, and a fully healthy McNabb and I think the offense will be just fine next season. Oh, and actually use a second running back for more than 2-4 carries a game.

11:50 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I openly rooted for the Cowboys today because of my hatred for Eli of course they lost !! Maybe it's me ?? Go Packers, Go Patriots


9:08 PM EST  
Anonymous Phil said...

Really? Eli will only ever be "eh". I was openly rooting for the Giants as I think people are waaay to early to annoint Romo the next great QB. That and it's the Cowboys for crying ut loud!

Everyone outside NYC will be rooting for the Pack, but the Pats? Puh-lease. Would rather see the Chargers win than them. And how great would it be for their perfect season to end without a trip to the SB?

12:14 PM EST  
Blogger The Mean Guy said...

captain, how do we get you to change allegiances and become a patriot fan?

any interest in moving to boston?

2:23 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

TMG, I don't understand your question. Do you WANT me to become a Patriots fan ?

I am sick of hearing about the '71 Dolphins and their "perfect season". If there is going to be a perfect season, I would like it to occur when I am around to witness and appreciate it. The Patriots are the best team in the league. They don't apologize and don't try to hide it - they went out this year and kicked the crap out of everybody. The games that they didn't destroy their opponent,when the chips were down, they made the plays to win the game. That's what "winners" do, that's why they have 3 SB titles and we have zero. I wouldn't mind Favre winning another SB, but San Diego does nothing for me and Eli ??? Nooooo!! Probably most of the reason I hate Eli is media based. The way they all want to suck his d*ck b/c he's Peyton's little brother and I can't stand the hype. But the hate feels good, so I'll go with it.


11:43 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This must be a nigntmare. Giants in the SB ???? F*ck. Green Bay played like the Eagles in the 2nd half. Completely abandoned the run, offense out of sync, piss-poor defense and terrible tackling. DAMMIT !!!!!!!!!!
I hope the patriots annihilate the giants and somebody Thiesmans Eli !


10:38 PM EST  

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