Draft Analysis #3

some final summary stats and conclusion to the analysis of the initial 8 teams

Average Rating of Drafted Players by Team

Broncos	Eagles	Steelers	Ravens	Cowboys	Chargers	Patriots	Colts
1.69	1.82	1.75	1.85	1.56	1.70	1.69	1.75

Overall

Average of All Drafted Players	Correlation (Round-Rating)
1.73	-0.56

Bubble Graph - size of bubble reflects count

Conclusions
based on the initial set of draft ratings and summary data, the eagles do not jump out as the best of the initial set of 8 teams... but they're not the worst either. they're better at some things than others, but overall, my conclusion is that they're somewhere in the middle of the top 8 teams and that tentatively puts them somewhere among the top 5 drafting teams (assuming that our instincts were correct in the initial identification of best drafting teams). while they are certainly not perfect nor consistent, as a whole, the andy reid draft era has probably been the best i've seen for any eagles era and is competitive with the best of his peers.

some observations:

- one of the areas the eagles didn't do as well as one would hope -- and probably why they are perceived to be worse at drafting than the overall picture indicates -- is drafting in the first and second rounds. in the first and second rounds, the birds average player rated at 3.0 and 2.2, tying for 5th and sitting alone in 6th among the 8 teams. in hit rate, the birds only hit on 75% of their first rounders and 40% of their second rounders, again ranking 5th and 6th among the 8 teams. they do make up for it somewhat by ranking 3, 3, 2, 5, 1 for rounds three through seven, but you'd like to see them do better in the early rounds because (as the bubble graph shows) that's where you get the bulk of your top players. i'd like to see where 75% and 40% places them among the broader pool of nfl teams as we add more to the analysis.

- the best early drafting team is clearly the colts, who hit on 100% of their first rounders and 50% of their second rounders, ranking first and second in those categories. their average player rating in the first round is 3.43, easily the best among the 8 teams.

- in terms of average player rating by year, the birds ranked 2, 6, 2, 1, 7, 5, 5, 3 for the years 1999 through 2006, which averages out to just under 4, placing them at the top of the middle. the best team here was the ravens (whose drafts ranked 1, 1, 1, 5, 4, 8, 3, 4), and the worst team was the cowboys (whose drafts ranked 6, 8, 8, 8, 1, 7, 1, 7).

- the eagles ranked 4th in overall hit percentage behind the ravens, colts, and steelers. the ravens hit on an amazing 30% of their drafted players.

- the eagles ranked 2nd in ability to find pro-bowl caliber players (1 in 11), behind only the ravens (1 in 10)

- most of the teams were between 15-18 hits overall, indicating that teams should expect to get about 2 good starters per draft. well, except for the cowboys, who only hit on 10 players overall and were consistently toward the bottom in every measure except for success in the first round. of course, the cowboys also have generally drafted much higher than the other teams on this list during that time, so some of that first round success is expected.

- bumble holds the fact that the birds had just one "great" draft against them, but i don't see why that should be held against them. i think it makes sense to hold that against them if you believe that one draft was luck, but the data shows that's simply not the case. even if you eliminated two of the all-pro caliber players from that draft (making it an average draft in terms of players produced), the eagles would still be competitive with the other teams reviewed. their ranking would go down, certainly, but they'd still be better than the cowboys and the broncos by most measures.

the devil's in the details, so obviously all of these are based on the notion that the player ratings were done reasonably accurately and without bias. i'm fairly confident i've done that, and since there has been a reasonable amount of traffic visiting the site and just a few corrections/ongoing discussions, i'll assume and we can use this as a basis moving forward.

next steps will be to rate the drafts for the second group of teams -- cardinals, lions, bills, rams, saints, bengals, 49ers, texans. (on phil's suggestion, i'm including the rams, but will leave the bengals in and take out the raiders)

Draft Analysis #2

continuing the discussion about drafting success we started here and here

"Hit" Percent by Round (players rated 3, 4, or 5)

Round	Broncos	Eagles	Steelers	Ravens	Cowboys	Chargers	Patriots	Colts
1	71.4%	75.0%	87.5%	66.7%	83.3%	71.4%	77.8%	100.0%
2	45.5%	40.0%	42.9%	50.0%	18.2%	60.0%	37.5%	50.0%
3	11.1%	28.6%	30.0%	20.0%	33.3%	28.6%	14.3%	11.1%
4	18.2%	23.1%	37.5%	55.6%	10.0%	12.5%	16.7%	22.2%
5	0.0%	12.5%	9.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	12.5%	20.0%
6	30.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	10.0%	10.0%
7	0.0%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%

"Hit" Percent Overall

	Broncos	Eagles	Steelers	Ravens	Cowboys	Chargers	Patriots	Colts
Hits	16	17	17	18	10	15	15	17
Total	67	66	64	60	62	61	68	60
%	23.9%	25.8%	26.6%	30.0%	16.1%	24.6%	22.1%	28.3%

Pro-Bowl Caliber or Higher

	Broncos	Eagles	Steelers	Ravens	Cowboys	Chargers	Patriots	Colts
PBC	2	6	3	6	3	5	6	4
Total	67	66	64	60	62	61	68	60
%	3.0%	9.1%	4.7%	10.0%	4.8%	8.2%	8.8%	6.7%

Draft Analysis #1

following up on the post about rating andy reid drafts, here is the first wave of draft analysis. i'll post more as i'm able to look at this. i've also received a few requests to do this for all 32 teams, so i'll try to do more teams as i'm able to find time.

Average Player Rating by Round

Round	Broncos	Eagles	Steelers	Ravens	Cowboys	Chargers	Patriots	Colts
1	2.71	3.00	3.00	3.22	3.17	3.00	3.11	3.43
2	2.36	2.20	2.14	2.33	1.73	2.60	2.25	2.50
3	1.44	2.14	2.20	1.60	1.83	1.86	1.57	1.33
4	1.64	1.69	1.88	2.22	1.40	1.38	1.50	1.56
5	1.00	1.63	1.36	1.33	1.40	1.11	1.25	1.50
6	1.70	1.09	1.00	1.50	1.18	1.00	1.40	1.30
7	1.09	1.33	1.10	1.00	1.08	1.27	1.14	1.00

Count of Players by Rating

Count	Broncos	Eagles	Steelers	Ravens	Cowboys	Chargers	Patriots	Colts
1	39	35	36	34	40	39	44	36
2	12	14	11	8	12	7	9	7
3	14	11	14	12	7	10	9	13
4	2	6	3	5	3	4	4	4
5	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0

Average Player Rating by Draft

Year	Broncos	Eagles	Steelers	Ravens	Cowboys	Chargers	Patriots	Colts
2006	1.86	1.75	1.56	1.67	1.38	1.43	1.33	2.00
2005	1.80	1.82	1.50	1.86	2.13	2.00	1.86	1.44
2004	1.40	1.40	1.63	1.14	1.38	2.10	1.88	1.75
2003	1.30	1.33	2.00	1.82	2.29	1.43	2.00	1.63
2002	1.75	2.63	2.13	1.78	1.56	2.00	1.83	1.75
2001	2.00	2.00	1.71	2.29	1.11	2.00	1.78	1.86
2000	1.80	1.43	1.89	2.00	1.20	1.25	1.45	1.71
1999	1.83	2.10	1.70	2.75	1.50	1.17	1.50	2.00

Number of "Insignificant" Players by Round

Round	Broncos	Eagles	Steelers	Ravens	Cowboys	Chargers	Patriots	Colts
1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0
2	2	3	2	1	5	3	2	1
3	6	3	2	3	4	3	4	7
4	6	7	4	3	7	6	9	6
5	8	4	8	7	3	8	7	7
6	6	10	10	9	9	9	9	8
7	10	7	9	10	12	9	12	7

Game 3 Thoughts - 2007

nothing like playing the lions to cure all ills, eh? the lions are a team that doesn't match up very well with the birds scheme-wise. on defense, they seemed to be running mostly soft man and zone coverage today, which the eagles offense thrives against. on offense, mike martz hates keeping more than 5 blockers on pass plays, again, something jim johnson defenses tend to eat alive. i think it's tough to judge exactly what a game like today means in the big picture, but damn was it a fun day or what? i swapped my ticket for this game so watched it at home and the kids seemed to grow disinterested in singing "fly eagles fly" after about the 4th or 5th time. me, on the other hand, i never get sick of singing that song.

- too bad our qb stinks and should be replaced by the rookie, otherwise the team might have scored some real points. mcnabb stinks a) he's black and 2) did you see the fumble he had in the red zone? how do you expect to win if you're turning the ball over in the red zone! he sucks, get him out of there. with the real qb, this team would have scored more than the measly 8 touchdowns they scored today.

- kevin curtis looks pretty good when he's not being todd pinkston'd at the line. give him some space and he can really run. he's not donte' stallworth fast, but he seems plenty fast enough to be a deep threat and has better hands than donte'.

- eagles o-line played great today, simply great. i'm sure some of it was detroit's d-line playing poorly, but the line was opening gaping holes on running plays and giving don good pass protection. runyan punched some guy after his helmet fell off without getting a penalty. hope shawn andrews' injury isn't serious. the first play that max jean-gillies came in was a screen pass and he didn't even make a half-hearted fake at pass blocking and then blocked nobody once westbrook got the ball. bwest made decent yardage on the play, but none of it was because of jean-gillies.

- i thought the nfl was all about protecting the quarterbacks? the refs completely whiffed on two roughing the passer calls (one for each team).

- did that 91 yard pass play to roy williams remind anyone else of the 99 yard jaworski to mike quick play? williams had to evade a tackler, while quick didn't, but i had an immediate flashback.

- sav rocca is stinking up the joint. i know some people wrote that rocca's net punting was decent last week, but i was at the game. i didn't see much evidence of this booming leg that everyone's been talking about. today, he didn't punt often (only 3 times), but his long was 50 so his other two punts averaged 37 yards. this is not the guy i saw in the preseason. what's going on here?

- quentin mikell looked pretty good today. he's a sure tackler, plays very fast, and had an ok day in coverage. his flying sack of kitna was reminded me a little of the dawkins flying tackle.

- takeo spikes is awfully good at sniffing out screens

enjoy the week eagles fans!

Andy Reid Drafts vs. Other "Top" Teams

UPDATE: updated ratings for logan mankins and shaun phillips.
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UPDATE: added colts (good thing because they're looking like the top drafting team of the group). updated ratings for antonio bryant, rob petitti, ovie mughelli, and elvis dumervil.
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ok, bumble, here is my first (highly unscientific) pass at rating the drafts of the "top" teams we mutually identified. i've scored every player from every draft since 1999 for the eagles, cowboys, broncos, patriots, steelers, chargers, and ravens using this scale:

1 - insignificant
2 - good backup to below average starter
3 - decent starter to good starter
4 - pro-bowl caliber player
5 - superstar

i'll post the summary and analysis after people have had a chance to critique the scores i've assigned to the players.

NOTE: 2007 drafts are not scored as it's too early to judge those players and all kickers are excluded as i don't believe they are relevant to this analysis

Year	Team	Round	Player	Pos	Rating
2007	Broncos	1	Jarvis Moss	DE	n
		2	Tim Crowder	DE	n
		3	Ryan Harris	OT	n
		4	Marcus Thomas	DT	n
2006	Broncos	1	Jay Cutler	QB	3
		2	Tony Scheffler	TE	2
		4	Brandon Marshall	WR	2
		4	Elvis Dumervil	DE	3
		4	Domenik Hixon	WR	1
		5	Chris Kuper	G	1
		6	Greg Eslinger	C	1
2005	Broncos	2	Darrent Williams	CB	3
		3	Karl Paymah	DB	2
		3	Domonique Foxworth	CB	2
		3	Maurice Clarett	--	1
		6	Chris Myers	G	1
		7	Paul Ernster	K	k
2004	Broncos	1	D.J. Williams	OLB	3
		2	Tatum Bell	RB	2
		2	Darius Watts	WR	2
		3	Jeremy LeSueur	CB	1
		5	Jeff Shoate	CB	1
		6	Triandos Luke	WR	1
		6	Josh Sewell	--	1
		7	Matt Mauck	QB	1
		7	Brandon Miree	RB	1
		7	Bradlee Van Pelt	QB	1
2003	Broncos	1	George Foster	T	3
		2	Terry Pierce	LB	1
		4	Quentin Griffin	RB	2
		4	Nick Eason	DT	1
		4	Bryant McNeal	DE	1
		5	Ben Claxton	C	1
		5	Adrian Madise	WR	1
		6	Aaron Hunt	--	1
		7	Clint Mitchell	DE	1
		7	Ahmaad Galloway	RB	1
2002	Broncos	1	Ashley Lelie	WR	2
		2	Clinton Portis	RB	4
		3	Dorsett Davis	DT	1
		4	Sam Brandon	DB	1
		5	Herb Haygood	WR	1
		6	Jeb Putzier	TE	3
		7	Chris Young	DB	1
		7	Monsanto Pope	DT	1
2001	Broncos	1	Willie Middlebrooks	CB	1
		2	Paul Toviessi	DE	1
		3	Reggie Hayward	DE	3
		4	Ben Hamilton	C	3
		4	Nick Harris	P	k
		6	Kevin Kasper	WR	2
2000	Broncos	1	Deltha O'Neal	CB	3
		2	Ian Gold	LB	3
		2	Kenoy Kennedy	SAF	3
		3	Chris Cole	WR	1
		4	Jerry Johnson	DT	1
		4	Cooper Carlisle	G	1
		5	Muneer Moore	WR	1
		6	Mike Anderson	RB	3
		7	Jarious Jackson	QB	1
		7	Leroy Fields	--	1
1999	Broncos	1	Al Wilson	MLB	4
		2	Montae Reagor	DE	3
		2	Lennie Friedman	C	2
		3	Chris Watson	CB	1
		3	Travis McGriff	WR	1
		4	Olandis Gary	RB	2
		5	David Bowens	LB	1
		5	Darwin Brown	DB	1
		6	Desmond Clark	TE	3
		6	Chad Plummer	WR	1
		7	Billy Miller	WR	2
		7	Justin Swift	TE	1
2007	Eagles	2	Kevin Kolb	QB	n
		2	Victor Abiamiri	DE	n
		3	Stewart Bradley	LB	n
		3	Tony Hunt	RB	n
		5	C.J. Gaddis	SAF	n
		5	Brent Celek	TE	n
		6	Rashad Barksdale	CB	n
		7	Nate Ilaoa	FB	n
2006	Eagles	1	Brodrick Bunkley	DT	3
		2	Winston Justice	T	2
		3	Chris Gocong	LB	2
		4	Max Jean-Gilles	G	1
		4	Jason Avant	WR	2
		5	Jeremy Bloom	WR	1
		5	Omar Gaither	LB	2
		6	LaJuan Ramsey	DT	1
2005	Eagles	1	Mike Patterson	DT	3
		2	Reggie Brown	WR	3
		2	Matt McCoy	LB	1
		3	Ryan Moats	RB	1
		4	Sean Considine	DB	2
		4	Todd Herremans	T	3
		5	Trent Cole	DE	3
		5	Scott Young	G	1
		6	Calvin Armstrong	T	1
		7	Keyonta Marshall	DT	1
		7	David Bergeron	LB	1
2004	Eagles	1	Shawn Andrews	T	4
		3	Matt Ware	DB	1
		4	J.R. Reed	DB	1
		4	Trey Darilek	T	1
		5	Thomas Tapeh	RB	2
		6	Andy Hall	QB	1
		6	Dexter Wynn	DB	1
		7	Adrien Clarke	G	1
		7	Bruce Perry	RB	1
		7	Dominic Furio	C	1
2003	Eagles	1	Jerome McDougle	DE	1
		2	L.J. Smith	TE	3
		3	Billy McMullen	WR	1
		4	Jamaal Green	DE	1
		6	Jeremy Bridges	G	1
		7	Norman LeJeune	DB	1
2002	Eagles	1	Lito Sheppard	CB	4
		2	Michael Lewis	SS	3
		2	Sheldon Brown	CB	4
		3	Brian Westbrook	RB	4
		4	Scott Peters	C	1
		5	Freddie Milons	WR	1
		6	Tyreo Harrison	LB	1
		7	Raheem Brock	DE	3
2001	Eagles	1	Freddie Mitchell	WR	2
		2	Quinton Caver	LB	1
		3	Derrick Burgess	DE	4
		4	Correll Buckhalter	RB	2
		5	Tony Stewart	TE	1
		5	A.J. Feeley	QB	2
2000	Eagles	1	Corey Simon	DT	3
		2	Todd Pinkston	WR	2
		2	Bobbie Williams	G	1
		4	Gari Scott	WR	1
		6	Thomas Hamner	RB	1
		6	John Frank	--	1
		6	John Romero	--	1
1999	Eagles	1	Donovan McNabb	QB	4
		2	Barry Gardner	OLB	2
		3	Doug Brzezinski	G	2
		4	John Welbourn	T	3
		4	Damon Moore	SS	3
		4	Na Brown	WR	1
		6	Cecil Martin	FB	2
		6	Troy Smith	WR	1
		7	Jed Weaver	TE	2
		7	Pernell Davis	DT	1
2007	Steelers	1	Lawrence Timmons	LB	n
		2	LaMarr Woodley	LB	n
		3	Matt Spaeth	TE	n
		4	Daniel Sepulveda	P	n
		4	Ryan McBean	DE	n
		5	Cameron Stephenson	G	n
		5	William Gay	CB	n
		7	Dallas Baker	WR	n
2006	Steelers	1	Santonio Holmes	WR	3
		3	Anthony Smith	DB	2
		3	Willie Reid	WR	2
		4	Willie Colon	T	2
		4	Orien Harris	DT	1
		5	Omar Jacobs	QB	1
		5	Charles Davis	TE	1
		6	Marvin Philip	C	1
		7	Cedric Humes	RB	1
2005	Steelers	1	Heath Miller	TE	3
		2	Bryant McFadden	DB	3
		3	Trai Essex	T	1
		4	Fred Gibson	WR	1
		5	Rian Wallace	LB	1
		6	Chris Kemoeatu	G	1
		7	Shaun Nua	DE	1
		7	Noah Herron	RB	1
2004	Steelers	1	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	3
		2	Ricardo Colclough	CB	2
		3	Max Starks	T	3
		5	Nathaniel Adibi	DE	1
		6	Bo Lacy	T	1
		6	Matt Kranchick	TE	1
		6	Drew Caylor	C	1
		7	Eric Taylor	DT	1
2003	Steelers	1	Troy Polamalu	DB	4
		2	Alonzo Jackson	LB	1
		4	Ike Taylor	CB	3
		5	Brian St. Pierre	QB	1
		7	J.T. Wall	--	1
2002	Steelers	1	Kendall Simmons	G	3
		2	Antwaan Randle El	WR	2
		3	Chris Hope	DB	3
		4	Larry Foote	ILB	3
		5	Verron Haynes	RB	2
		6	Lee Mays	WR	1
		7	LaVar Glover	CB	1
		7	Brett Keisel	DE	2
2001	Steelers	1	Casey Hampton	NT	4
		2	Kendrell Bell	ILB	3
		4	Mathias Nkwenti	T	1
		5	Chukky Okobi	C	1
		6	Rodney Bailey	DE	1
		6	Roger Knight	LB	1
		7	Chris Taylor	--	1
2000	Steelers	1	Plaxico Burress	WR	3
		2	Marvel Smith	T	3
		3	Kendrick Clancy	NT	2
		3	Hank Poteat	CB	2
		4	Danny Farmer	WR	1
		5	Clark Haggans	LB	3
		5	Tee Martin	QB	1
		6	Chris Combs	DE	1
		6	Jason Gavadza	TE	1
1999	Steelers	1	Troy Edwards	WR	1
		2	Scott Shields	DB	1
		3	Joey Porter	LB	4
		3	Kris Farris	T	1
		3	Amos Zereoue	RB	2
		4	Aaron Smith	DE	3
		5	Jerame Tuman	TE	2
		5	Malcolm Johnson	WR	1
		7	Antonio Dingle	DT	1
		7	Chad Kelsay	LB	1
		7	Kris Brown	K	k
2007	Ravens	1	Ben Grubbs	G	n
		3	Yamon Figurs	WR	n
		3	Marshall Yanda	G	n
		4	Antwan Barnes	LB	n
		4	Le'Ron McClain	FB	n
		5	Troy Smith	QB	n
		6	Prescott Burgess	LB	n
		5	Jared Gaither	T	n
2006	Ravens	1	Haloti Ngata	DT	3
		2	Chris Chester	C	3
		3	David Pittman	DB	1
		4	Demetrius Williams	WR	2
		4	P.J. Daniels	RB	1
		5	Dawan Landry	SS	2
		5	Quinn Sypniewski	TE	1
		6	Sam Koch	P	k
		6	Derrick Martin	CB	1
		7	Ryan LaCasse	LB	1
2005	Ravens	1	Mark Clayton	WR	2
		2	Dan Cody	LB	1
		2	Adam Terry	T	3
		4	Jason Brown	C	3
		5	Justin Green	RB	1
		6	Derek Anderson	QB	2
		7	Mike Smith	LB	1
2004	Ravens	2	Dwan Edwards	DT	2
		3	Devard Darling	WR	1
		5	Roderick Green	LB	1
		6	Josh Harris	QB	1
		6	Clarence Moore	WR	1
		7	Derek Abney	WR	1
		7	Brian Rimpf	T	1
2003	Ravens	1	Terrell Suggs	OLB	4
		1	Kyle Boller	QB	2
		3	Musa Smith	RB	2
		4	Jarret Johnson	DE	1
		4	Ovie Mughelli	FB	3
		5	Aubrayo Franklin	DT	1
		5	Tony Pashos	T	3
		6	Gerome Sapp	DB	1
		7	Trent Smith	TE	1
		7	Mike Mabry	C	1
		7	Antwoine Sanders	--	1
2002	Ravens	1	Ed Reed	SS	5
		2	Anthony Weaver	DE	2
		4	Dave Zastudil	P	k
		4	Ron Johnson	WR	1
		5	Terry Jones	TE	1
		6	Lamont Brightful	WR	1
		6	Javin Hunter	WR	1
		6	Chester Taylor	RB	3
		6	Chad Williams	DB	1
		7	Wes Pate	QB	1
2001	Ravens	1	Todd Heap	TE	4
		2	Gary Baxter	DB	3
		3	Casey Rabach	C	3
		4	Edgerton Hartwell	LB	3
		5	Chris Barnes	--	1
		6	Joe Maese	C	1
		7	Dwayne Missouri	DE	1
2000	Ravens	1	Jamal Lewis	RB	4
		1	Travis Taylor	WR	1
		3	Chris Redman	QB	1
		5	Richard Mercier	G	1
		6	Adalius Thomas	DE	4
		6	Cedric Woodard	DE	1
1999	Ravens	1	Chris McAlister	CB	4
		4	Brandon Stokley	WR	3
		4	Edwin Mulitalo	G	3
		7	Anthony Poindexter	DB	1
2007	Cowboys	1	Anthony Spencer	LB	n
		3	James Marten	OT	n
		4	Isaiah Stanback	WR	n
		4	Doug Free	OT	n
		6	Nick Folk	K	n
		6	Deon Anderson	FB	n
		7	Courtney Brown	CB	n
		7	Alan Ball	CB	n
2006	Cowboys	1	Bobby Carpenter	LB	2
		2	Anthony Fasano	TE	2
		3	Jason Hatcher	DE	1
		4	Skyler Green	WR	1
		5	Pat Watkins	FS	2
		6	Montavious Stanley	DT	1
		7	Pat McQuistan	T	1
		7	E.J. Whitley	C	1
2005	Cowboys	1	DeMarcus Ware	OLB	4
		1	Marcus Spears	DE	3
		2	Kevin Burnett	LB	2
		4	Marion Barber	RB	2
		4	Chris Canty	DE	2
		6	Justin Beriault	DB	1
		6	Rob Petitti	T	2
		7	Jay Ratliff	DE	1
2004	Cowboys	2	Julius Jones	RB	3
		2	Jacob Rogers	T	1
		3	Stephen Peterman	G	1
		4	Bruce Thornton	CB	1
		5	Sean Ryan	TE	1
		7	Nate Jones	CB	1
		7	Patrick Crayton	WR	2
		7	Jacques Reeves	CB	1
2003	Cowboys	1	Terence Newman	CB	4
		2	Al Johnson	C	2
		3	Jason Witten	TE	4
		4	Bradie James	LB	3
		6	B.J. Tucker	CB	1
		6	Zuriel Smith	WR	1
		7	Justin Bates	--	1
2002	Cowboys	1	Roy Williams	FS	3
		2	Andre Gurode	G	3
		2	Antonio Bryant	WR	2
		3	Derek Ross	CB	1
		4	Jamar Martin	FB	1
		5	Pete Hunter	CB	1
		6	Tyson Walter	C	1
		6	Deveren Johnson	--	1
		6	Bob Slowikowski	TE	1
2001	Cowboys	2	Quincy Carter	QB	1
		2	Tony Dixon	DB	1
		3	Willie Blade	DT	1
		4	Markus Steele	OLB	1
		5	Matt Lehr	C	2
		6	Daleroy Stewart	DT	1
		7	Colston Weatherington	DE	1
		7	John Nix	DT	1
		7	Char-ron Dorsey	T	1
2000	Cowboys	2	Dwayne Goodrich	DB	1
		4	Kareem Larrimore	CB	1
		5	Michael Wiley	RB	1
		6	Mario Edwards	CB	2
		7	Orantes Grant	LB	1
1999	Cowboys	1	Ebenezer Ekuban	DE	3
		2	Solomon Page	G	1
		3	Dat Nguyen	LB	3
		4	Wane McGarity	WR	1
		4	Peppi Zellner	DE	1
		6	MarTay Jenkins	WR	1
		7	Mike Lucky	TE	1
		7	Kelvin Garmon	G	1
2007	Chargers	1	Craig Davis	WR	n
		2	Eric Weddle	SAF	n
		3	Anthony Waters	LB	n
		4	Scott Chandler	TE	n
		5	Legedu Naanee	WR	n
		7	Brandon Siler	LB	n
		4	Paul Oliver	CB	n
2006	Chargers	1	Antonio Cromartie	CB	1
		2	Marcus McNeill	T	4
		3	Charlie Whitehurst	QB	1
		5	Tim Dobbins	LB	1
		6	Jeromey Clary	T	1
		6	Kurt Smith	K	k
		7	Chase Page	DT	1
		7	Jimmy Martin	C	1
2005	Chargers	1	Shawne Merriman	OLB	4
		1	Luis Castillo	DE	3
		2	Vincent Jackson	WR	3
		4	Darren Sproles	RB	1
		5	Wesley Britt	T	1
		6	Wes Sims	G	1
		7	Scott Mruczkowski	C	1
2004	Chargers	1	Eli Manning	QB	3
		2	Igor Olshansky	DE	3
		3	Nate Kaeding	K	k
		3	Nick Hardwick	C	3
		4	Shaun Phillips	LB	3
		5	Dave Ball	DE	1
		5	Michael Turner	RB	2
		6	Ryan Krause	TE	1
		7	Ryon Bingham	DT	1
		7	Shane Olivea	T	3
		7	Carlos Joseph	--	1
2003	Chargers	1	Sammy Davis	CB	2
		2	Drayton Florence	CB	3
		2	Terrence Kiel	SS	1
		3	Courtney Van Buren	T	1
		4	Matt Wilhelm	LB	1
		5	Mike Scifres	P	k
		6	Hanik Milligan	DB	1
		7	Andrew Pinnock	FB	1
2002	Chargers	1	Quentin Jammer	DB	3
		2	Toniu Fonoti	G	4
		2	Reche Caldwell	WR	2
		3	Ben Leber	OLB	2
		4	Justin Peelle	TE	2
		5	Terry Charles	WR	1
		6	Matt Anderle	--	1
		7	Seth Burford	QB	1
2001	Chargers	1	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB	5
		2	Drew Brees	QB	4
		3	Tay Cody	CB	1
		4	Carlos Polk	LB	1
		5	Elliot Silvers	T	1
		5	Zeke Moreno	LB	1
		7	Brandon Gorin	T	2
		7	Robert Carswell	DB	1
2000	Chargers	2	Rogers Beckett	SAF	1
		3	Damion McIntosh	T	3
		4	Trevor Gaylor	WR	1
		4	Leonardo Carson	DT	1
		6	Shannon Taylor	LB	1
		6	Damen Wheeler	CB	1
		6	JaJuan Seider	--	1
		7	Jason Thomas	G	1
1999	Chargers	2	Jermaine Fazande	RB	1
		3	Steve Heiden	TE	2
		4	Jason Perry	DB	1
		5	Adrian Dingle	DE	1
		5	Reggie Nelson	G	1
		6	Tyrone Bell	CB	1
2007	Patriots	1	Brandon Meriweather	SAF	n
		4	Kareem Brown	DT	n
		5	Clint Oldenburg	T	n
		6	Justin Rogers	LB	n
		6	Mike Richardson	DB	n
		6	Justise Hairston	RB	n
		6	Corey Hilliard	OT	n
		7	Oscar Lua	LB	n
		7	Mike Elgin	G	n
2006	Patriots	1	Laurence Maroney	RB	3
		2	Chad Jackson	WR	2
		3	David Thomas	TE	1
		4	Garrett Mills	RB	1
		4	Stephen Gostkowski	K	k
		5	Ryan O'Callaghan	T	1
		6	Jeremy Mincey	LB	1
		6	Dan Stevenson	G	1
		6	Le Kevin Smith	DT	1
		7	Willie Andrews	CB	1
2005	Patriots	1	Logan Mankins	G	4
		3	Ellis Hobbs	CB	2
		3	Nick Kaczur	T	3
		4	James Sanders	SAF	1
		5	Ryan Claridge	LB	1
		7	Matt Cassel	QB	1
		7	Andy Stokes	TE	1
2004	Patriots	1	Vince Wilfork	NT	4
		1	Benjamin Watson	TE	3
		2	Marquise Hill	DE	2
		3	Guss Scott	SAF	2
		4	Dexter Reid	SAF	1
		4	Cedric Cobbs	RB	1
		5	P.K. Sam	WR	1
		7	Christian Morton	CB	1
2003	Patriots	1	Ty Warren	DE	3
		2	Eugene Wilson	FS	3
		2	Bethel Johnson	WR	1
		4	Dan Klecko	DT	2
		4	Asante Samuel	CB	4
		5	Dan Koppen	C	3
		6	Kliff Kingsbury	QB	1
		7	Spencer Nead	TE	1
		7	Tully Banta-Cain	LB	1
		7	Ethan Kelley	NT	1
2002	Patriots	1	Daniel Graham	TE	2
		2	Deion Branch	WR	3
		4	Rohan Davey	QB	1
		4	Jarvis Green	DE	3
		7	Antwoine Womack	RB	1
		7	David Givens	WR	1
2001	Patriots	1	Richard Seymour	DT	5
		2	Matt Light	T	4
		3	Brock Williams	CB	1
		4	Kenyatta Jones	T	1
		4	Jabari Holloway	TE	1
		5	Hakim Akbar	DB	1
		6	Arther Love	TE	1
		6	Leonard Myers	CB	1
		7	Owen Pochman	K	k
		7	T.J. Turner	LB	1
2000	Patriots	2	Adrian Klemm	T	1
		3	J.R. Redmond	RB	1
		4	Greg Randall	T	1
		5	Dave Stachelski	TE	1
		5	Jeff Marriott	--	1
		6	Antwan Harris	CB	1
		6	Tom Brady	QB	5
		6	David Nugent	DT	1
		7	Casey Tisdale	--	1
		7	Patrick Pass	RB	2
1999	Patriots	1	Damien Woody	C	3
		1	Andy Katzenmoyer	MLB	1
		2	Kevin Faulk	RB	2
		3	Tony George	DB	1
		5	Derrick Fletcher	T	1
		6	Marcus Washington	--	1
		7	Michael Bishop	QB	1
		7	Sean Morey	WR	2
		4	J'Juan Cherry	DB	1
2007	Colts	1	Anthony Gonzalez	WR	n
		2	Tony Ugoh	T	n
		3	Dante Hughes	CB	n
		3	Quinn Pitcock	DT	n
		4	Brannon Condren	DB	n
		4	Clint Session	LB	n
		5	Roy Hall	WR	n
		5	Michael Coe	CB	n
		7	Keyunta Dawson	DE	n
2006	Colts	1	Joseph Addai	RB	3
		2	Tim Jennings	CB	2
		3	Freddie Keiaho	LB	3
		5	Michael Toudouze	G	1
		6	Charlie Johnson	T	1
		6	Antoine Bethea	SS	3
		7	T.J. Rushing	CB	1
2005	Colts	1	Marlin Jackson	DB	3
		2	Kelvin Hayden	DB	3
		3	Vincent Burns	DE	1
		4	Dylan Gandy	G	1
		4	Matt Giordano	DB	1
		5	Jonathan Welsh	DE	1
		5	Robert Hunt	C	1
		5	Tyjuan Hagler	LB	1
		6	Dave Rayner	K	k
		7	Anthony Davis	--	1
2004	Colts	2	Bob Sanders	DB	4
		3	Ben Hartsock	TE	1
		3	Gilbert Gardner	LB	1
		4	Kendyll Pope	LB	1
		4	Jason David	CB	2
		5	Jake Scott	G	3
		6	Von Hutchins	DB	1
		6	Jim Sorgi	QB	1
		7	David Kimball	K	k
2003	Colts	1	Dallas Clark	TE	3
		2	Mike Doss	SS	1
		3	Donald Strickland	FS	1
		4	Steve Sciullo	G	1
		5	Robert Mathis	DE	3
		5	Keyon Whiteside	LB	1
		6	Cato June	DB	2
		6	Makoa Freitas	T	1
2002	Colts	1	Dwight Freeney	DE	4
		2	Larry Tripplett	DT	2
		3	Joseph Jefferson	CB	1
		4	David Thornton	LB	3
		6	David Pugh	DT	1
		6	James Lewis	--	1
		6	Brian Allen	RB	1
		7	Josh Mallard	DE	1
2001	Colts	1	Reggie Wayne	WR	4
		2	Idrees Bashir	FS	2
		3	Cory Bird	DB	1
		4	Ryan Diem	G	3
		5	Raymond Walls	DB	1
		6	Jason Doering	DB	1
		7	Rick DeMulling	G	1
2000	Colts	1	Rob Morris	LB	3
		2	Marcus Washington	LB	3
		3	David Macklin	DB	2
		4	Josh Williams	DT	1
		5	Matt Johnson	--	1
		7	Rob Renes	DT	1
		7	Rodregis Brooks	DB	1
1999	Colts	1	Edgerrin James	RB	4
		2	Mike Peterson	OLB	3
		3	Brandon Burlsworth	--	1
		4	Paul Miranda	DB	1
		5	Brad Scioli	DE	2
		7	Hunter Smith	P	k
		7	Corey Terry	DE	1

Game 2 Thoughts - 2007

- as everyone is pointing out, the passing game looks awful. some part of the blame lies with the receivers, some part lies with the coordination between the receivers and mcnabb, but a big part sits with mcnabb himself. wow. he was missing guys left and right, and he hasn't been that bad since that awful stretch in the early part of the 2003 season when don couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. it could be a combination of things (and certainly some of it is getting used to his new set of receivers since curtis is new, avant didn't play last season, and reggie brown was secretly switched with featherstone), but mcnabb is just not right. why? one reason is that his knee is obviously not quite right. don's footwork is awful right now and history has shown that he is a guy who needs to have good mechanics to throw an accurate pass. unfortunately, his legs were consistently out of sync with his upper body last night to the point where even his long passes (usually his best area) were consistently off-target and usually ended up sailing out of bounds. another reason is that he's a guy who needs to have confidence in his receiver corps because he's so loathe to take chances with the ball. with the receivers continuing to drop so many balls, he's hesitating on pulling the trigger and checking down a lot. of course, the receivers need to get open as well, which they're not really doing, but the bottom line is this: if mcnabb plays like mcnabb, the eagles win the game last night. even as poorly as he played, the birds had a good chance to tie the game on third down at the end of the game, but don threw a pass about 3 yards wide of curtis (who had made a nice outside cut to get open).

- the receiver corps needs to step things up. everyone except for avant is playing like ass right now. not sure if the playcalling has something to do with it, but there was no one running free in the secondary like we got used to seeing last season (with or without stallworth). just a minor point, but they also need to CATCH THE BALL when it hits them on the numbers.

- i haven't read or heard anything about last night's game yet, but i'm sure that people are going to say that the defense played well last night. well, i don't think they did. the redskins had guys running free all over the place. if jason campbell wasn't such a young player and was able to look off his primary receiver (which he didn't do a lot of), the skins might have scored a lot more than they did. there were guys wide open, and i mean wiiide open, on a large number of plays. i couldn't focus on the line like i wanted because the secondary was so awful, but it seemed to me that the eagles were unable to get consistent pressure on campbell. how many times was campbell able to look at his primary guy, double clutch, wait for the guy to cross zones, and then fire a strike? four times? five? meanwhile, the same old bugaboos that plague JJ defenses were still there. inability to defend against mobile QBs. inability to defend against bootleg passes to the TE. the run defense was pretty solid until the end, so there is that.

- can we stop starting trent cole? he's a situational pass rusher. let's agree and try something else. he's not good at holding the edge and he's not a good tackler. howard should be starting and cole should come in with juqua thomas as pass rush specialists.

- will james sucked last night. every other play he was getting turned around by the skins receiver. he is not well suited to covering smaller, quicker receivers. they were eating him alive last night. the receivers he was covering were often open by 3-5 yards. it was sick.

- the o-line played ok i thought. don's lack of accuracy was not due to the o-line not blocking well (though there certainly were a few jailbreaks during the game). mcnabb was sometimes not stepping up into the pocket when it was there. again, lack of confidence in the knee i suppose.

- sav rocca sucked last night. he only got one decent kick and the rest looked terrible (short and low). the one that was a boomer was certainly impressive, but overall he sucked.

- i never thought i'd be glad to see reno mahe back returning punts, and i'm glad to say i'm still not. he may be able to catch the ball, but he still stinks. of course, getting cut and resigned was the best thing to happen to him. at least for this game, he was certainly a fan favorite.

- mcnabb - d minus
- receivers - d
- running backs - b
- o-line - b
- d-line - c plus
- linebackers - c
- secondary - d

yuck and double yuck! this is certainly no reason to panic and by the end of the year, the eagles will likely not suck, but i think big dog is feeling the same way i'm feeling about this -- fatigued.

i agree with big dog. i'm really starting to get tired of living through the same thing every season. this year is especially tough because in past years, you knew that once the eagles got their heads on straight, they could be viable contenders. not so this year, with belicheat and the patriots looking like they have a chance to be the best team ever. that's not the real problem though. the real problem is that without the hope of potentially contending for a championship shining out in front of me, what i'm left with is a team that runs an offense i hate (worst coast offense) and that i'm finding less and less enjoyable to watch.

Game 2 Preview - 2007

washington redskins at philadelphia eagles

a horrible, horrible loss last week against a talented but unbalanced packers team got the started on a sour note. blech. despite the loss, there were some positive signs -- especially on defense -- so let's hope andy hasn't lost his touch at avoiding back-to-back losses and the birds come out fired up and focused for this game.

footballoutsiders.com
- eagles come into the game ranked at 2nd in DAVE (factors in preseason projections) and 17th in VOA (too early in the season for defense adjusted rankings) -- 22nd on offense, 5th on defense, and a predictable 30th on special teams
- redskins come in ranked 8th in DAVE and 13th in VOA -- 13th on offense, 18th on defense, and 12th on special teams

Eagles fans never thought they'd miss Reno Mahe, the no-frills return man who clung to their roster for several years despite his lack of razzle and complete absence of dazzle. After the Eagles handed the Packers 10 points on two muffed punts, the Philly Phaithful are actually clamoring for the return of Mahe. Or Brian Mitchell. Or Via Sikahema. Or Wally Henry.

Both the Redskins and Eagles played sloppy 16-13 games last week; the Eagles lost in Green Bay, but the Redskins won in overtime. The Redskins' win came at a heavy price: right tackle Jon Jansen, one of the team's best players, is out for the year with an ankle injury.

"It takes away a little bit from the win," right guard Randy Thomas said after the game. "I'm down about that. That's a blow, man. That's a rock."

With Jansen out, veteran Todd Wade will get the start. Wade was on the inactive list last week with a shoulder injury he claims will be a non-issue against the Eagles. "It's manageable. There's harnesses and things like that I'll wear, but I feel good about it," Wade told the Washington Post. "It's nothing I'm worried about."

Jason Campbell is the one who should be worried. The one thing the Eagles did especially well in Green Bay was pressure the quarterback. The Redskins won't put many points on the board, and the Eagles offense should be more in sync after a poor effort in the opener. That seven-point opening line may be scary, but the Eagles are much better than they looked on Sunday, while the Redskins looked just about right. Lay the points, take the Eagles and hide your head under a blanket every time the Redskins punt.

les bowen

THE 6 1/2-POINT spread here might be a lot for an Eagles offense that didn't establish much of anything in its opener. What the heck, though, I think the Birds are going to step up tonight, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. (Homerish? Well, I was the only Daily News writer to take the Packers last week.) And I don't think last week's strong defensive showing was a fluke - I really think this is a talented if inexperienced unit. Yeah, this would be easier if Lito Sheppard was playing, but the big thing is going to be stopping the run, and that isn't Sheppard's job.

Prediction

Eagles 20, Redskins 12

paul domowitch

Quarterback
Pick: Eagles

Running back
Pick: Even

Receiver
Pick: Redskins

Offensive line
Pick: Eagles

Defensive line
Pick: Eagles

Linebacker
Pick: Redskins

Secondary
Pick: Redskins

Special Teams
Pick: Even

Domo’s prediction: Eagles 20, Redskins 17

espn scouts inc

These teams enter this game with opposite mindsets. Philadelphia was shocked in its last-second loss at Green Bay while Washington was ecstatic to escape with an overtime home win over Miami. Neither offense looked very good, both quarterbacks seemed rusty and there was an alarming lack of big plays and explosiveness. Both defenses should play well in this game and there will be a lot of pressure on the respective offenses to be productive in blitz pickup and getting the ball to their hot receivers when they see the pressure coming, which will happen a lot from both of these defenses. Both running games should balance each other out. Washington gets it done with two backs, Portis and Betts, while the Eagles must get a big day from Westbrook. Philadelphia cannot afford to start 0-2 and it will play a lot better than it did in Week 1. The Eagles must fix their special teams problems because they cannot afford to give up big plays and field position in the kicking game. This game will be close and physical, but the differences will be McNabb playing a cleaner game than Jason Campbell.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Redskins 20

madden 08

Donovan McNabb's performance last week in Green Bay caused many to question the health of his surgically repaired right ACL. He quieted those concerns in the Eagles' 25-19 win over the Redskins at Lincoln Financial Field. McNabb threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns, his first a 3-yard touchdown to wide receiver Reggie Brown. After Washington scored on a field goal by Shaun Suisham, McNabb connected with Brown again for another touchdown and a 14-3 lead.

The Redskins defense grew stingy in the second quarter and enabled their offense to inflict some damage. Scoring on four straight possessions, including a touchdown pass from Jason Campbell to Santana Moss and a 50-yard Suisham field goal, the Redskins built a 19-14 halftime lead. McNabb and Westbrook took over in the second half. With the Eagles pinned deep in their own territory, Westbrook compiled 37 total yards to set up a 58-yard touchdown pass from McNabb to Kevin Curtis. Westbrook ran in a two-point conversion, David Akers knocked in late a field goal, and the Eagle defense stifled any hopes for a Washington comeback.

Prediction: Eagles 25 - Redskins 19

accuscore

The Eagles made an inexcusable error not having a reliable return specialist. Donovan McNabb will look to take the game out of the hands of the special teams and into his own capable hands. He is forecasted for 260+ yards and his TD to INT ratio is nearly 3 to 1. The Redskins Jason Cambell is forecasted for a passer rating of just 72, but he does scramble for key first downs and is averaging over 20 yds rushing to help get those first downs.

Philly RB Brian Westbrook and Clinton Portis are running for virtually identical rushing totals. Both are averaging 18 carries, 86 yards and .5 rushing touchdowns per sim. Westbrook has the fantasy edge thanks to his game high 4.5 receptions leading to 44 more yards.

Philadelphia is heavily favored having a 68% chance of winning and a nearly 40% chance of getting a double digit win.

Prediction: Eagles 23.8 - Redskins 17.7

what i think
i came into the season thinking the eagles would lose one of their first two games (i ran through every game of the season for the 4 nfc east teams when making my season predictions), but figured the birds to win the opener and lose to the redskins. while the birds have been bad in the opener under big red, i certainly was surprised to see how sloppy they looked and how poor the special teams were. unfortunately, the loss last week makes winning this week pretty important. it's not a "must win", but it sure is a game they damn well better win.

redskins o vs. eagles d
the redskins appear to have gone back to joe gibbs football, meaning power running game with play action deep passing and what i find to be the most entertaining kind of football. last season, the redskins ate the eagles d-tackles alive and basically pushed them wherever they wanted. i expect things to be a little different this year. having bunkley playing the nose instead of patterson, who is back playing 3-technique, means the middle should be at least a little stouter than last year. this will be the most important on-field matchup in this game -- the redskins o-line against the eagles d-tackles.

the second most important matchup will be gocong against cooley. the eagles have not been able to stop a decent tight end since emmons left in free agency. this will be gocong's first chance to line up against a top flight TE. for years now, the eagles haven't been able to stop the reverse action naked bootleg play where the TE drags across the field. let's see if that changes this game.
a game like this is where jim johnson has to earn his money. he has to control and befuddle first year starter jason campbell and be able to get consistent pressure on him. lito being out is a concern, but if this is probably the best opponent for him to miss a game.

eagles o vs. redskins d
the redskins d has an incredibly talented secondary (only nickel back smoot wasn't a high first round pick) and a very good to great d-coordinator. however, big red has shown that he can successfully attack and scheme for williams. some d-coordinators (e.g. john fox, belichick, lebeau) seem to have big red's number, but gregg williams isn't one of them.

mcnabb has historically played well against redskins, though i don't think that is necesarily relevant because many of those plays don made with his feet and he's not the same player anymore/yet.

the redskins under williams have generally been a very blitz happy team (even more than the eagles under JJ) and i don't expect that to change. with mcnabb's mobility limited, the o-line must play well. i'm hoping the eagles come out and make this a smash mouth game. draw taylor and landry close to the LOS and then throw over the top. probably won't happen, but one can hope.

bottom line
i'm expecting the skins to be the eagles biggest challenger this season, so this is an important matchup. it should be a tough, physical game. the eagles are the more desperate team coming into this game, and should be fired up playing in front of the home crowd. the teams are similar in terms of talent with the only real difference being at QB. limited mcnabb should still better than jason campbell. expect him to be a lot sharper than he was against the packers and expect him to get better protection as well.

prediction
eagles 20 - redskins 13

Belichick/Patriots Penalty

i've heard some people express the opinion that the penalty was too severe and some people express the opinion that the penalty wasn't severe enough.

i think there is a simple test for this. if you're robert kraft and bill belichick and someone offers to significantly increase your chances of winning 3 superbowls for $750,000 and a first round pick. do you make the deal? of course you do. you don't even hesitate to make that deal.

Regarding Belichick and Cheating

so, everyone and their brother is up in arms about belichick and the patriots getting caught cheating. meh. i'm glad they got caught and i'm glad that the nfl is going to come down on them, but (and i'm not saying this just to be contrarian) frankly the only thing i'm pissed about is that the eagles haven't been the ones cheating their *sses off to bring a lombardi trophy to philadelphia.

would all of these outraged fans and/or columnists continue to be outraged if belichick was hired to coach their team? i wouldn't. i'd welcome him with open arms just as i would welcome anyone who cared enough about winning to do anything in their power to win. what's that saying? "if you ain't cheatin', you ain't tryin'" belichick is apparently as creative and devious at cheating as he is at scheming for offenses.

i'd love for andy to be figuring out ways to get an edge on the other teams. don't get me wrong. i'm all for sportsmanship and "doing things the right way". i get that. but i'm also not shelling out my season ticket money to watch someone take the high road. i'm not looking for a morality play. i couldn't care less if the eagles personified sportsmanship and good wholesome living. i just want to be entertained, and nothing entertains me more than winning. i like that this team is stocked with likeable, good natured guys, but it won't matter if they don't win.

i know i hold the minority view on this, but i feel same way about steroids. these are grown men being paid handsomely to entertain me. they know the risks and if they're willing to accept them to perform better on the field, so be it.

part of the reason i feel this way is that they're all doing it anyway. you know it and i know it. anyone who doesn't is a moron, a hypocrite, or in denial. you know why everyone involved in cycling *knows* that lance armstrong was doping? because they were all doping themselves! yet he wasn't just beating them, he was killing them.

another reason i feel this way is that i think the argument about setting a good example for kids is nonsense. steroids and performance enhancing drugs will exist with or without the nfl. everyone at every level is doing what they can to get ahead. radnor high school had some sort of big cheating scandal a while back. is it because the kids were negatively influenced by some organization or group that they looked up to? heck no. they came up with it themselves because all of those kids were looking for an edge. if the nfl completely wiped out performance enhancing drugs, it would have zero effect on the number of teenagers taking steroids. people and kids looking for an edge are still going to be looking for an edge.

i encourage pro athletes to take steroids because they make for good entertainment. i'd love to see the eagles field a team of 400 lb guys who run a 4.5. i'd love to see a guy run the 100m in 8 seconds. i'd love to see a guy lifting cars over his head on world's strongest man.

similarly, i have no problem with any football team trying to get whatever edge they can by whatever means they can. i guarantee you there are teams out there that are intercepting the radio signals from marty to donovan. i also guarantee you there are teams out there that have radios in other players' helmets. unfortunately, i'm guessing the eagles aren't one of them. does that make everyone happy? it certainly doesn't provide me any satisfaction.

Tuesday Links

- john smallwood agrees that the birds should bring back bloom, but he is certain that they won't due to what he thinks is some combination of stubbornness or arrogance

- however, reuben frank says the eagles contacted both mahe and bloom yesterday

The Eagles contacted both Reno Mahe and Jeremy Bloom yesterday but by last night hadn't made a move. Mahe wasn't in a training camp this year. Bloom has been out of work since the Eagles released him on Aug. 31.

- phil sheridan's evolution from rah-rah team supporter to snarky columnist guy continues

Third, and this is the source of real concern, these kinds of performances are coming too frequently to be discounted as mere happenstance. The foggy, uninspired performance against a beatable team is as much a hallmark of the Reid/Donovan McNabb era as the time-out called just before the play clock hits zero.

- i agree with how kevin roberts of the courier-post is thinking about this loss and the special teams fiascos

Reid is one of the best coaches in Eagles history (there are some who would put him at the top of the list, but he really ought to win a title first). He made a personnel mistake, in handing a special teams job to two players who weren't up to it. It is not the first time Reid has made such a mistake, and it won't be the last. NFL coaches, even good ones, make these kinds of mistakes.

But good coaches fix them. Fast.

Here's how it works - the blame for Sunday falls on Greg Lewis and J.R. Reed. They messed up.

The responsibility for fixing it falls on Reid. If it doesn't get fixed, if things don't get right, that will be Reid's fault.

- garry cobb is reporting that the reason westbrook wasn't back to field that last punt was due to fatigue from the heavy workload. i'm a little skeptical since westbrook only ran the ball 20 times and caught 6 passes (though he did have a couple of drops).

I've heard that BWest was spent and fatigued when the Eagles were getting the ball back from the Packers at the end of that game. That's why Andy didn't get into it when asked about it at the Monday news conference. I saw Brian on Thursday going out early to field some punts. I joked with him that he was going to return punts on Sunday because I knew Andy wasn't dumb enough to put Greg Lewis back there.

Game 1 Thoughts

i was hoping to write up a preview and prediction for the game, but my house is going on the market tomorrow and i had a long list of to-do items around the house.

i hope the awful game the birds played today doesn't cause mass hysteria in eagles nation. first, it was just one game. second, the eagles are notoriously bad under andy reid on opening day (which always strikes me as odd).

i had a bad feeling about this game coming in, which was justified i guess. some thoughts:

- i guess you can't talk about the game without talking about the not-so-special teams. not worth dwelling on right now, you know their return game is horrible, i know their return game is horrible, and the birds know the return game is horrible. beyond horrible, really. i'd bring bloom back. he was very surehanded in the preseason, and if his toe injury was indeed holding him back, there is a potential upside. unfortunately, what the birds will likely do is recall reno mahe from the minors (chickie's and pete's). how can you go into the season with two guys who have never returned punts as your primary punt returners? it's an egregious miscalculation.

- couldn't tell whether it was just poor offensive execution by the birds or great defense by the packers, but the eagles offense was inconsistent and out of sync for much of the day. i actually thought they started off the game ok as they were dominating the clock and making a lot of 3rd down conversions, but things got progressively worse and by the end they couldn't do much of anything.

- drops, drops, drops. how many freaking drops in this game? five? two by westbrook, one by buck, one by brown, one by lj.

- mcnabb never looked comfortable today. i can't remember a time when a QB had so many balls deflected by the d-line. between the drops and don throwing the ball directly into so many d-linemen, it's no wonder his completion percentage was so low. he threw a pick, had one dropped.

- it all starts with the o-line, however. they were horrible today. getting no push off the line and providing no pass protection. these guys have to improve quickly and get back to mauling people.

- defense looked decent. not great, but they played ok. while i still have problems with JJ's predictable blitzes (that the packers picked up way more often than not), i was impressed by how the birds squashed the packers' running game.

- considine played pretty well, all things considered. he made a few pretty good plays, and even tried to lay a few hits. no badly missed tackles, a few passes defenses. not horrible.

- dawk looked ok for a first game

- patterson and bunkley looked pretty good

- avant was the best receiver on the field today. kevin curtis caught one long ball and reggie brown was invisible except for the drop. i'm sure a lot of that had to do with the quality of the starting corner tandem on the packers (when charles woodson is healthy, i think he is as good or better than any cornerback in the league), but i think that pretty much confirms that we don't really have a number one receiver on the team.

- spikes looked pretty dynamic and made several very nice plays, but he did miss one tackle and doesn't look nearly as agile as he did with the bengals

- gocong is still a work in progress, but seemed more comfortable today. he even made a play in coverage which was nice to see.

- gaither looked serviceable

- sheldon played a terrific game

- the pack didn't target lito much today when he was in the game. a sign of respect i guess. hope his injury isn't too bad.

- westbrook continues to pack on more muscle. he has a much denser physique than he did two seasons ago. he must have borrowed some of lenny dykstra's "special vitamins". saw him make some nice yardage after contact today. of course the running game sucked as a whole, but the fact that bwest was getting some yardage after contact was a good sign.

how in blazes did they lose this game? they should have dominated this team. now i have to see reno mahe back on the team. wonder if josh parry is out there?

Previewing the NFC East 2007

first a review of my preview from last season:

predicted (2006)
1. eagles - 11-5
2. giants - 10-6
3. cowboys - 8-8
4. redskins - 7-9

actual (2006)
1. eagles - 10-6 (-1)
2. cowboys - 9-7 (+1)
3. giants - 8-8 (-2)
4. redskins - 5-11 (-2)

even though the nfc east ended up as the best division in the nfl accoring to footballoutsiders and the rest of the nfc comprised the three worst divisions in the nfl, it's apparent that i was pretty unrealistic in my expectations -- predicting 4 more wins for the division than how it actually played out.

i expect this division to still be the best in the nfc this season, but suspect not the nfl overall. i expect the records for this season to be very similar to how the division broke out last season, but with the three bottom teams swapping positions.

prediction for 2007
1. eagles - 10-6
2. redskins - 9-7
3. cowboys - 8-8
4. giants - 5-11

1. philadelphia eagles - 10-6

positives
- the best QB in the division
- the best RB in the division
- best o-line in the division
- a deep receiver corps
- better gameday management as a byproduct of head coach giving up playcalling responsibility

negatives
- QB injury history
- RB injury history
- brian dawkins is a year older
- LBs are no longer undersized and slow, but are unproven and learning on the job
- d-line is deep but not difference making, last year proved to be a house of cards when 1 injury affected the entire line all season
- secondary lacks both depth and quality at safety
- jim johnson may no longer be an elite d-coordinator

outlook
the eagles should come out of the gate very quickly again due to a seemingly easy early season schedule, which should set the team up to lead the division all season. there are many unanswered questions and concerns, especially on defense, but the offense is good at all positions and deep at many.

based on scouting reports on stewart bradley's quick development and the shaky performances of gocong and gaither so far, the expectation seems to be that bradley may replace one of the starter sometime during the season. despite the focus on the linebackers, the d-line and secondary are what makes this defense go, so the biggest questions on defense are: a) will jevon kearse recover his explosiveness? b) will brian dawkins be affected by his achilles all season or slowed by age? and c) can they get effective SS play out of some combination of considine, mikell, and jr reed?

if mcnabb and westbrook stay healthy, this team will score a lot of points and win the division. if the defense plays very well in addition to that, this team can be a real contender. i'm not too optimistic that the defense will play well, however, so i'm thinking 10-6.

(football outsiders think they'll win ~11 games)

2. washington redskins - 9-7

positives
- very good secondary, probably the best in the division
- a full year in al saunders' offense, good coaching overall
- jason campbell should be an upgrade over mark brunell
- defense should rebound from last year's horrible showing
- no new high reputation, low production imports
- adam archuleta is gone

negatives
- clinton portis is breaking down, if not fully broken down
- defense has trouble pressuring QB without blitzing
- QB is still young and learning
- offense may still have trouble scoring points
- little depth at most positions

outlook
it seems that most people expect the cowboys to be the birds' primary challenger for the division title, but after looking at schedules and thinking about how the season may play out, i think the redskins may be the team.

don't underestimate how good a coordinator gregg williams is and how bad adam archuleta was. this was a team that went 10-6 in 2005 with almost no offense. laron landry should be a huge upgrade over archuleta and given the relative importance of the safety in a cover-2 defense, i think he'll make a pretty big impact. this team is deep and good at corner.

the offense should be better than last season, now with a full season using the al saunders playbook. last year, the redskins offense suffered from a lack of big plays despite having a lot of speed. i don't know if the new offense caused santana moss' lack of production or santana moss' lack of production hurt the offense, but look for moss to have a better season than last. although clinton portis looks to be about done, ladell betts is a very good backup.

(football outsiders think they'll win ~8 games)

3. dallas cowboys - 8-8

positives
- good skill position players
- good cornerbacks
- good and deep linebacker corps

negatives
- first time o-coordinator and coaching overall
- have quality wideouts, but they are old and lack depth
- o-line is suspect
- QB is unproven
- terence newman has a foot injury

outlook
lots of people (especially fans and media in dallas) seem to think that the cowboys are a potential superbowl contender, but i can't seem to figure out why.

let's start with the QB who made the pro bowl because he had 5 good games to start his career. his next six games? not so hot. romo seems to have enough natural tools to play QB, he seems to be accurate, he's nimble in the pocket, and he definitely seems to have the confidence. the jury is still out on his decision-making and his ability to read a defense. based on the 4 times i saw him play last season, it sure didn't seem like he knew how to look off a receiver. he usually locked in on a guy and then bought time with his feet until the guy got open. kc joyner seems to think the romo we saw in the first 5 games is more likely the real romo. we'll see what happens, but toward the end of last season he was a turnover machine.

next issue i see for them is coaching. my recollection is that wade phillips was not a very good head coach. interestingly, he holds a career winning percentage of .533 (having a 16-17 record with the broncos and 29-21 record with the bills as well as a couple of shorter stints with the saints and falcons), so he must not have been terrible. unfortunately, i don't recall any specifics of why i remember him as a bad coach, so let's set that aside for now. the big issue with the cowboys coaching is that, in reality, jerry jones is the head coach. jerry hired jason garrett as o-coordinator *before* he hired wade phillips. wade took the job knowing he'd have no say on the offense and no say on personnel (both controlled by jones). really phillips is the d-coordinator, though his d-backs coach from san diego technically holds that title. i don't know about you, but that all sounds very dysfunctional to me.

finally, there are a couple of underpublicized but key injuries to the cowboys defense. first, terence newman has a plantar fascia tear. newman is one of the best corners in the league, so this is a potentially big loss for the cowboys. even if he does play, plantar fasciitis does not seem heal quickly (supposedly 6-18 months) so it may slow him down for much of this season. second, greg ellis has an achilles problem. he doesn't get much publicity, but i think greg ellis is a terrific player. the cowboys are going to have a drop-off no matter who replaces him (probably bobby carpenter or anthony spencer).

plus, there's always the possibility of me-o going ballistic about something or other.

(football outsiders think they'll win ~6 games)

4. new york giants - 5-11

positives

- not much
- QB has another year of experience
- drafted a cornerback to shore up sieve-like secondary
- can that really be all?

negatives
- shockey already dinged
- madison has groin problem
- replaced tiki barber with reuben drougns
- the gap-toothed one was holding out for more money/considering retirement/wants to be traded
- tom coughlin is the head coach
- plaxico burress hasn't practiced all preseason
- amani toomer coming off ACL tear
- let best o-lineman from a bad o-line go to tampa in free agency (new LT was previously a backup guard)
- QB has not really progressed much during his time in the league

outlook
not good. not good.

the best player on the team is probably middle linebacker antonio pierce. i suppose shockey is the most talented player, but he's been more of a tease than a consistent producer of yards and touchdowns. of course his scattershot QB and lack of involvement in the offense could account for much of that.

brandon jacobs is getting a lot of hype, but let's be real, unless he is better than tiki barber (which i highly doubt). the running game is sure to take a hit. he definitely seems like he's going to be tough to bring down, but he still unproven as an every down back.

also don't forget about their QB. you know, the one who's afraid to get hit? i'm sure he'll start the season fairly hot (like he did last season), but over time, the hits will wear him down and he'll start turning away from pass rushers and stop following through on his throws. it's inevitable. even giants fans know this is true. it's the same reason jeremy bloom won't make it as a returner in the nfl. you can't play pro football if you can't stand getting hit. sure, nobody actually *likes* getting hit. however, if getting hit is part of your job description, you better be damn good at taking hits.

if everything goes right, this team might win 6 games, but i think 4 or 5 is the more likely outcome. this is not going to be a good year for new york giants fans.

fire away with feedback/critcism.