If Eagles Fans Had Done This...

it would be a lead story on the national news

here are giants fans smashing up a porsche in the parking lot after seeing their team lose


and when they're finished with that one, they move onto the next car


not the first time, here's how giants fans celebrated the superbowl win earlier this year


ever hear a peep about this crap in the media?

Divisional Playoff Game Thoughts

what a freaking game today. it was ugly, it was physical, it was wonderful. to go on the road for the second week in a row and take it to the defending champs. phew! what a thoroughly enjoyable run this team is having.

there were many good performances today, but i think the big difference between these two team was QB play. i have no doubt that if you swapped manning and mcnabb, you'd be looking at a giants win right now. mcnabb may not have the physical tools he did when he was younger, but he's playing better than he has in a long time.

today wasn't a very good day for him statistically but he made all the plays the eagles needed to win. he made a number of clutch throws -- especially the stunning 3rd and 20 pass to avant -- but the play that stood out to me was a short pass to kevin curtis for the first down late in the third quarter just after carney missed a 47 yard field goal. the eagles had just gotten the ball back and needed a nice long drive to take some time off the clock. on first down around mid-field, the play call was a quick slant to curtis on right. the giants called for a zone blitz with justin tuck dropping into that passing lane -- the exact right defense for the play. i'm not sure how, but mcnabb saw tuck dropping into that lane and double clutched, waiting for curtis and tuck to run by each other and then threw a dart for a 15 yard catch and run. most QBs throw it right into tuck's belly on that play, heck i've seen don throw it right into a defender's belly in that exact situation before. maybe you can't read too much into a single play, but i'm impressed that he appears to be still growing and learning as a QB.

other thoughts:

- kudos to the coaching staff. they went with a balanced approach in the first half -- lots of running followed up with deep drops looking for a big play -- but the giants were getting way too much pressure on mcnabb and the offense was completely out of sync. the second half was a completely different story -- pass, pass, pass, pass -- but mostly quick drops and underneath routes. halftime adjustments.

- love that we continue to see the QB sneak! how about the difference between a mcnabb sneak and a half-hearted manning sneak?

- the defense played a terrific game today but they sold out to stop the run and there were guys running free in the secondary. thankfully, eli manning was the opposing QB and almost all of those guys were missed badly.

- bunkley and patterson were simply awesome today -- especially on those two stuffs on 4th and short.

- does asante samuel exert some sort of gravitational pull on footballs? asante, my apologies for thinking that the biggest difference between you and lito was your ability to stay healthy/play in pain. you're twice the corner that lito ever was. also, i really enjoyed how you ran the pick back right at eli, even though eli obviously had no desire or intent to get in on the tackle.

- the play mix today was 45 called passes and 23 called runs -- 66% passing

- fox flashed back-to-back stats during the game -- apparently the giants and eagles were ranked first and second this year in points scored during the last 2 minutes of the first half. did everyone see that? how do we reconcile that with the notion that the eagles suck at the 2 minute drill? is it possible that my contention that there are no teams who are "good" at the 2 minute drill is accurate? what causes that disconnect? i'm not sure exactly, but i don't think anyone can complain today, the 2 minute drill at the end of the first half was a thing of beauty.

- footballoutsiders are feeling pretty good about themselves today. the eagles finished at the top of their ratings this year (first time ever for them and first time ever for a wild card team). makes a lot more sense now than at the end of the regular season.

- thank goodness eli manning still stinks. this myth that's been growing about him ever since he happened to be on a team that won a superbowl has been annoying.

- andy opened himself up for a lot of criticism when he continued to pass (and pass downfield) with the lead. lot of guts andy.

- does anyone think that playing on the road has been good for this team? that the pressure of winning in front of the home crowd might have made the birds play a little tighter?

next up, the cardinals. eagles open up as 3.5 point favorites on the road...

E-A-G-L-E-S.... EAGLES!

JC Romero Thoughts

most of philadelphia is up-in-arms about the "injustice" of jc romero being given a 50 game suspension for "unknowingly" taking banned substances from a supplement he bought at a GNC.

i can certainly understand where people are coming from, because i was thinking the same way until i looked at the product he purchased. some facts, as reported, that would lead you to side with jc are:

- this product wasn't on the banned substances list

- jc asked multiple nutritionists if the ingredients in the supplement were ok to take

- jc asked the trainer if the supplement was ok to take (trainer said he didn't know)

- jc asked the union if it was ok to take (union said it was ok)

based on these widely reported facts, i initially thought that the suspension seemed unfair -- that he never intended to violate the drug policy and that he took the "supplement" in good faith.

then out of curiosity, i googled the product he supposedly took. here is the first google link that came up:

http://anabolicminds.com/store/1347.html

it's not a popular stance, but i'm on record as saying that i think this whole notion of cheating makes no sense to me. if a grown man wants to take something that makes him a better player -- thereby increasing my entertainment -- so be it. (note: i understand the argument that allowing pros to take steroids encourages kids to take it. it's potentially the only valid reason to ban the stuff.)

however, for good or bad, the rules are in place... and it's clear to me that romero's intent was to artificially boost his testosterone levels via these "supplements". so while in his mind, he may not have technically violated the doping restrictions. to me, his intent to circumvent the spirit of the rule is clear.

here is some text from the advertising for the "supplement":

We undertook the due testing to prove to ourselves that this product had the ability to stimulate testosterone levels beyond even the range of upper normal - indeed it stimulates levels well into the supraphysiological range.

i don't know. sounds like steroids to me.

Wild Card Game

in case anyone is online during the game

Characteristics of Winning Teams (2004-2008)

following up on the previous post, here are the regressions for team stats over the last five seasons. whereas last time, i listed tried to eliminate duplicates (e.g. attempts and attempts per game) and limit the list to only the variables i thought were important (e.g. i removed 4th down conversions and pcts). this time, i thought it would be best to just post all the data so everyone can make their own assessments.

i've done a little more formatting than i typically do on this minimalist blog due to the increased amount of data.

so just to recap, the following tables display the correlation coefficient between all of the basic team stats from nfl.com over the last five seasons and the number of wins earned by the team that generated those stats.

cells highlighted in yellow represent a correlation coefficient between .5 and .65.

cells highlighted in orange represent a correlation coefficient between .65 and .8.

cells highlighted in red represent a correlation coefficient greater than .8.

not sure exactly what this tells us, but here are some initial observations:

- clearly the strongest correlation for defense is to not get run on. not to "stop the run" necessarily (though obviously forcing 3 and outs would limit the number of rushes against), but the number and percentage of carries against were the strongest relationships on either side of ball.

- against the rush, the aggregate stats (attempts, total yards, number of 1st downs) appear to correlate much stronger than the efficiency stats (avg/YPC, 1st down pct)

- against the pass, the reverse is true as the efficiency stats (avg/YPA, QB rating) show much stronger correlation than the aggregate stats (completions, yards, 1st downs)

- on offense, we see a similar pattern with aggregate stats mattering for rushing (attempts, number of TDs, number of 1st downs) and efficiency stats mattering for passing (QB rating, avg/YPA, 1st down pct)

- i continue to be shocked how little YPC seems to correlate to the win totals of the teams

- turnovers showed a much stronger correlation with the broader data set

here are a couple of scatterplots to show you how recent eagles teams compare against the league over the last five seasons.

first wins vs. point differential for the whole league over the last five seasons. the last five eagles teams are shown as large red points. this is a pretty obvious relationship, but it's interesting to see just how much this year's team has underperformed relative to their overall point differential (point differential has a .917 correlation with wins).

next is one of the stronger offensive stats -- percentage of passes that result in a first down. this had a correlation coefficient of .601.