Football Outsiders Unit Ranks
in my offseason review post, i noted the football outsiders ranks for each offensive, defensive, and special teams unit -- they ranked the for all 32 teams heading into the 2007 season for fox.com. to recap, here's how they assessed the eagles units:
looking at all teams, here is how things break down if we average the ranks of the 4 offensive units (QB, RB, WR, OL):
same thing for the three defensive units (DL, LB, DB):
it's certainly not scientific, but heading into the season it appears that FO has the birds at tied for 5th best offense and tied for 8th best defense. seems about right.
doing a straight average of all 8 categories (ST is the 8th), the birds end up ranked 7th, behind the patriots, chargers, ravens, jaguars, bears, and cowboys. of course this is based on talent only and doesn't factor coaching which should clearly drop the chargers, jaguars, and cowboys in those rankings -- with norv turner, jack del rio, and wade phillips coaching those teams.
QB | RB | WR | OL | DL | LB | DB | ST |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 7 | 21 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 2 | 18 |
looking at all teams, here is how things break down if we average the ranks of the 4 offensive units (QB, RB, WR, OL):
Rank | Team | Off Avg |
---|---|---|
1 | Bengals | 4.8 |
2 | Chargers | 5.0 |
3 | Patriots | 5.5 |
4 | Colts | 6.3 |
5 | Eagles | 9.5 |
6 | Rams | 9.5 |
7 | Ravens | 10.3 |
8 | Cowboys | 10.8 |
9 | Saints | 11.0 |
10 | Jaguars | 11.3 |
11 | Seahawks | 11.3 |
12 | Steelers | 13.0 |
13 | Broncos | 13.8 |
14 | 49ers | 14.3 |
15 | Bears | 15.5 |
16 | Redskins | 17.0 |
17 | Cardinals | 17.3 |
18 | Jets | 17.5 |
19 | Chiefs | 17.8 |
20 | Vikings | 18.8 |
21 | Panthers | 19.8 |
22 | Giants | 22.0 |
23 | Lions | 22.3 |
24 | Dolphins | 22.5 |
25 | Falcons | 22.5 |
26 | Browns | 23.5 |
27 | Packers | 24.0 |
28 | Titans | 24.8 |
29 | Bills | 25.0 |
30 | Buccaneers | 25.5 |
31 | Raiders | 28.0 |
32 | Texans | 28.5 |
same thing for the three defensive units (DL, LB, DB):
Rank | Team | Def Avg |
---|---|---|
1 | Ravens | 4.3 |
2 | Bears | 5.0 |
3 | Jaguars | 6.0 |
4 | Patriots | 6.3 |
5 | Steelers | 8.3 |
6 | Cowboys | 9.7 |
7 | Chargers | 10.7 |
8 | Eagles | 11.3 |
9 | Packers | 11.3 |
10 | Raiders | 11.7 |
11 | Seahawks | 13.7 |
12 | Panthers | 13.7 |
13 | Dolphins | 14.0 |
14 | Vikings | 14.3 |
15 | Broncos | 16.3 |
16 | Browns | 17.3 |
17 | Redskins | 18.0 |
18 | Titans | 18.0 |
19 | Giants | 18.7 |
20 | Buccaneers | 19.7 |
21 | 49ers | 20.0 |
22 | Saints | 20.3 |
23 | Bills | 20.7 |
24 | Bengals | 21.3 |
25 | Chiefs | 21.3 |
26 | Colts | 22.7 |
27 | Falcons | 22.7 |
28 | Cardinals | 23.0 |
29 | Texans | 25.3 |
30 | Jets | 25.7 |
31 | Rams | 27.3 |
32 | Lions | 29.3 |
it's certainly not scientific, but heading into the season it appears that FO has the birds at tied for 5th best offense and tied for 8th best defense. seems about right.
doing a straight average of all 8 categories (ST is the 8th), the birds end up ranked 7th, behind the patriots, chargers, ravens, jaguars, bears, and cowboys. of course this is based on talent only and doesn't factor coaching which should clearly drop the chargers, jaguars, and cowboys in those rankings -- with norv turner, jack del rio, and wade phillips coaching those teams.
Labels: football
4 Comments:
FO's 2007 mean projection is actually much higher at 3rd:
NE 12.1
JAC 11.8
PHI 11.0
GB 9.5
PIT 9.1
BAL 9.0
TB 9.0
IND 8.9
CAR 8.9
NYJ 8.8
CIN 8.7
DEN 8.7
SD 8.6
CHI 8.3
WAS 8.2
SF 8.1
SEA 8.0
CLE 7.6
ATL 7.6
MIN 7.5
NO 7.4
DET 7.1
NYG 7.0
TEN 6.9
OAK 6.5
DAL 6.4
BUF 6.2
HOU 6.0
ARI 6.0
STL 5.8
MIA 5.6
KC 5.2
That's mean projected wins for the year. If you haven't bought their Pro Football Prospectus 2007 yet, you must. I'm only part way through it, but a lot of great stuff in there so far (they love Kolb).
i haven't ordered that yet, though i do intend to. this is interesting now that we have two data points. a few things stand out to me:
- they think dallas is one of the top 10 talented teams but project them to have fewer than 6.5 wins, fewer than both giants (who ranked 27th in the unit rank averages) and redskins. they must not think much of wade phillips
- similarly, the chargers ranked: 10, 1, 8, 1, 4, 2, 26, and 3, but only project to 8.6 wins.
- on the flip side, tampa fared horribly in the rankings getting: 24, 21, 27, 30, 23, 19, 17, and 21 but project to 9.0 wins. they must think really highly of gruden
- the jets ranked pretty low on talent according to FO, but they have them projected at 8.8 wins.
I think a large portion of the discrepencies probably relate to strength of schedule (factored into wins, not talent), the confidence of their numbers (i.e. offense easier to project than defense since it's more consistent from year to year), and coach turnover (DAL has).
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