Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Football Outsiders Unit Ranks

in my offseason review post, i noted the football outsiders ranks for each offensive, defensive, and special teams unit -- they ranked the for all 32 teams heading into the 2007 season for fox.com. to recap, here's how they assessed the eagles units:

QB RB WR OL DL LB DB ST
3 7 21 7 8 24 2 18

looking at all teams, here is how things break down if we average the ranks of the 4 offensive units (QB, RB, WR, OL):

Rank Team Off Avg
1 Bengals 4.8
2 Chargers 5.0
3 Patriots 5.5
4 Colts 6.3
5 Eagles 9.5
6 Rams 9.5
7 Ravens 10.3
8 Cowboys 10.8
9 Saints 11.0
10 Jaguars 11.3
11 Seahawks 11.3
12 Steelers 13.0
13 Broncos 13.8
14 49ers 14.3
15 Bears 15.5
16 Redskins 17.0
17 Cardinals 17.3
18 Jets 17.5
19 Chiefs 17.8
20 Vikings 18.8
21 Panthers 19.8
22 Giants 22.0
23 Lions 22.3
24 Dolphins 22.5
25 Falcons 22.5
26 Browns 23.5
27 Packers 24.0
28 Titans 24.8
29 Bills 25.0
30 Buccaneers 25.5
31 Raiders 28.0
32 Texans 28.5

same thing for the three defensive units (DL, LB, DB):

Rank Team Def Avg
1 Ravens 4.3
2 Bears 5.0
3 Jaguars 6.0
4 Patriots 6.3
5 Steelers 8.3
6 Cowboys 9.7
7 Chargers 10.7
8 Eagles 11.3
9 Packers 11.3
10 Raiders 11.7
11 Seahawks 13.7
12 Panthers 13.7
13 Dolphins 14.0
14 Vikings 14.3
15 Broncos 16.3
16 Browns 17.3
17 Redskins 18.0
18 Titans 18.0
19 Giants 18.7
20 Buccaneers 19.7
21 49ers 20.0
22 Saints 20.3
23 Bills 20.7
24 Bengals 21.3
25 Chiefs 21.3
26 Colts 22.7
27 Falcons 22.7
28 Cardinals 23.0
29 Texans 25.3
30 Jets 25.7
31 Rams 27.3
32 Lions 29.3

it's certainly not scientific, but heading into the season it appears that FO has the birds at tied for 5th best offense and tied for 8th best defense. seems about right.

doing a straight average of all 8 categories (ST is the 8th), the birds end up ranked 7th, behind the patriots, chargers, ravens, jaguars, bears, and cowboys. of course this is based on talent only and doesn't factor coaching which should clearly drop the chargers, jaguars, and cowboys in those rankings -- with norv turner, jack del rio, and wade phillips coaching those teams.

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4 Comments:

Anonymous Phil said...

FO's 2007 mean projection is actually much higher at 3rd:

NE 12.1
JAC 11.8
PHI 11.0
GB 9.5
PIT 9.1
BAL 9.0
TB 9.0
IND 8.9
CAR 8.9
NYJ 8.8
CIN 8.7
DEN 8.7
SD 8.6
CHI 8.3
WAS 8.2
SF 8.1
SEA 8.0
CLE 7.6
ATL 7.6
MIN 7.5
NO 7.4
DET 7.1
NYG 7.0
TEN 6.9
OAK 6.5
DAL 6.4
BUF 6.2
HOU 6.0
ARI 6.0
STL 5.8
MIA 5.6
KC 5.2

9:37 AM EDT  
Anonymous Phil said...

That's mean projected wins for the year. If you haven't bought their Pro Football Prospectus 2007 yet, you must. I'm only part way through it, but a lot of great stuff in there so far (they love Kolb).

9:38 AM EDT  
Blogger The Mean Guy said...

i haven't ordered that yet, though i do intend to. this is interesting now that we have two data points. a few things stand out to me:

- they think dallas is one of the top 10 talented teams but project them to have fewer than 6.5 wins, fewer than both giants (who ranked 27th in the unit rank averages) and redskins. they must not think much of wade phillips

- similarly, the chargers ranked: 10, 1, 8, 1, 4, 2, 26, and 3, but only project to 8.6 wins.

- on the flip side, tampa fared horribly in the rankings getting: 24, 21, 27, 30, 23, 19, 17, and 21 but project to 9.0 wins. they must think really highly of gruden

- the jets ranked pretty low on talent according to FO, but they have them projected at 8.8 wins.

9:59 AM EDT  
Anonymous Phil said...

I think a large portion of the discrepencies probably relate to strength of schedule (factored into wins, not talent), the confidence of their numbers (i.e. offense easier to project than defense since it's more consistent from year to year), and coach turnover (DAL has).

10:02 AM EDT  

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