Monday, April 30, 2007

Draft Grade

i don't think you can grade this draft higher than a 'C', but then again, i know little to nothing about most of the guys they drafted this year.

HOWEVER, history has shown that they know a heck of a lot more about personnel than i do, or you do, or WIP does, or many/most of the other NFL teams do. every team has draft busts. look at the analyses and you'll see that 30-50% of first round picks are busts every year. i don't recall any specific links off the top of my head, but every analysis i've seen puts the birds in the top 5 teams in drafting talent since big red took over.

do you recall that big red targeted don with the 2nd pick in the draft when all of the draft "experts" had him slated going in the 20s? like him or not, mcnabb was BY FAR the best QB to come out of that draft. if big red says this kolb guy can play, i tend to believe him. he's actually been pretty good with his first rounders.

Year Pick Hit/Miss Pro-Bowl
1999 Donovan McNabb hit x
2000 Corey Simon hit x
2001 Freddie Mitchell miss
2002 Lito Sheppard hit x
2003 Jerome McDougle miss
2004 Shawn Andrews hit x
2005 Mike Patterson TBD
2006 Brodrick Bunkley TBD
2007 Kevin Kolb TBD


i'm not saying this to indicate that i support how they went in this draft, but there's no way anyone out there -- talking head, fan, or morning idiot -- can judge this draft for several years.

at any rate, i'm certainly not upset about it. am i disappointed that they weren't able to grab one of the first round worthy safeties? yes. am i disappointed that they didn't panic and draft a jon harris-type guy because all of their targets were stolen in front of them? nope.

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11 Comments:

Anonymous Phil said...

Totally agree. I think we can look to the past couple years where everyone thought the Eagles had great drafts and now looking back they're at best so-so.

It's easy to forget that these kids are still developing their football skills and projecting who will keep develloping is tough. Maybe they'll get lucky with this class along with hitting on a RFA.

4:54 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't remember lobbying hard for a QB, but maybe I did. i guess my concern is they did this for a reason, they always do, and we won't know until a year from now. On the surface, they will pay Mc5 $10 mill, this guy $1 mill, and Feely $2 mill? No way, makes no sense, not what they do.

My point is this guy would've been there later. Why not grab a potential contributor in round one? John harris comparison aside, there were a ton of players not of the harris ilk they could've taken and that would've helped. this guy may be great, but he won't help for several years. They need guys who can help now. My frustration is watching the pats go for broke and watching Dallas get deeper and watching the Birds do...well who knows what the hell they're doing.

Bumble

6:01 PM EDT  
Blogger The Mean Guy said...

On the surface, they will pay Mc5 $10 mill, this guy $1 mill, and Feely $2 mill? No way, makes no sense, not what they do.

as a second round pick, kolb will average less than a million per year on his contract. feeley is making 800k this season and his cap charge is 1.75 mil. mcnabb's cap charge is 8.8 mil. the three of them combined will be less than the cap charges for peyton manning, tom brady, and brett favre.

put it this way. the franchise player tag price for QBs is 12.6 mil. that means the cap charge for the top 5 best paid QBs is 12.6 mil. the eagles will be paying all of their QBs over a million less than that number.

My point is this guy would've been there later. Why not grab a potential contributor in round one?

- this draft was well publicized as having only 17-19 players with true first round grades.

- they got two extra picks for moving down.

- would they have taken tony hunt if they didn't have those picks?

- i would have loved to have seen them take a safety or d-back in the first. does a name stick out as someone they missed? i sure as heck can't name someone who i'd rather have than the three players they got (kolb, hunt or bradley, and gaddis).

- i really like that they got hunt.

My frustration is watching the pats go for broke and watching Dallas get deeper and watching the Birds do

i don't see how dallas got any deeper. who did they pick up that was so great? the scouting reports i read tell me the DE the birds drafted from notre dame has every chance to be as good as or better than the DE dallas drafted from purdue.

NE is scary right now, i'll grant you.

9:33 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

TMG you know what it is, the Birds are just too damned good at poker. they obviously have a plan, an iron clad plan that we won't know for a long time and when it reveals itself, then we'll see the logic. It may work, it may not, but it will unfold. Unfortunately, I am not patient. I want to know their plan now so I can get with the program.

I may be hard on the draft, but from what I read they got a SS with raw ability who is supposedly a few years away and his own coach advised against going pro and he only ever played 10 college games. I like Hunt, but he is limited in the passing game. The LB is supposedly about equal with Paulie Pos, meaning both are slower of foot and straight up run stuffers. I am OK with that. The TE is at best a project. they did grab a 250 pound RB who is Samoan...those two things excite me.

But we had Super Bowl designs in this town and we no longer should. They clearly do not have them and are rebuilding this thing. I just wanted to make one more run at it and that time has passed. The guys 2 years and less can probably make their own run at some point, but for the vets the ride is probably over. That is tough to admit.

Bumble

10:39 PM EDT  
Blogger The Mean Guy said...

But we had Super Bowl designs in this town and we no longer should. They clearly do not have them and are rebuilding this thing. I just wanted to make one more run at it and that time has passed. The guys 2 years and less can probably make their own run at some point, but for the vets the ride is probably over. That is tough to admit.

i think you hit the nail on the head there. the window probably is closing... sigh.

if mcnabb had stayed healthy, the eagles would have been a better matchup for indy than the bears.

so many close calls with this team.

- the last season of the vet year (probably the best team overall of this core group).

- losing in the SB by 3

- TO goes insane, hernia for don

- ACL for don

with the drafting of kolb, the end of this group is near. is this don's last season with the birds? it might be. i wonder if the eagles see b-dawk and mcnabb as tied together in some way.

there seems to be about 6.6 mil in unallocated signing bonus money for mcnabb. if the birds were to trade him after this season, they would actually gain about 3 mil in cap space.

it's pure speculation, but given the calculating way the birds look at things, they may be expecting mcnabb to start his downslide in the next season or so and may be preparing to use his cap money in other positions.

9:06 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

so none of you think it's possible that when Reid said "he was the best player on the board at the time" that he was telling the truth? Did you all actually believe that the draft would end up getting us to the superbowl this year? How often has that happened? I agree, I would have liked to have seen them get someone to add depth to the secondary. But I think that could still happen with free agency or an outright trade. If not, nothing that the rest of the NFC did in the draft made anybody that much stronger, or the Eagles weaker, for this upcoming season. Don't jump off the cliff just yet Bumble. We're not coaches, we're certainly not Reid. Pre-season hasn't even started. TRAINING CAMP hasn't even started. I will once again say, that I think Hunt can add immediate impact play, but that's it, and we're lucky if that happens, because as Angry Guy said, even the top picks are bums 30-50% of the time......

- Joe

P.S. Something is very wrong in the world when I am the voice of reason.

9:36 AM EDT  
Blogger Big Dog said...

Bull, bull, bull....this is a team that has a bunch of guys returning and they practically pulled a miracle off last year...let's cut them a little slack with this draft. I think that they got some decent players and highly ranked players, maybe not what we wanted...in all honesty, would you rather have Leonard or Hunt? Leonard is the local guy (as is Hunt), who played FB last year, a position the Eagles utilize as much as a leper with no hands. He is not as good a runner as Hunt. I may have taken Bush at that pick over Hunt, but...Bush missed last year. Here's something to think about. Is there something up with the McNabb situation? I at first thought "No"....but the more and more I listen and see what is going on....the more I think that there may be more to this than meet's the eye....which we will never know and it's not worth speculating over....here's some things to think about
1. He has been injury prone practically his entire time here and most of it has been leg related, which is not good.
2. Garcia did a pretty good job with this team. No, he wasn't worth signing...but empirically they got lots of W's down the stretch. Plus, he ran the offense pretty efficiently.
3. Donovan is very high maintenance....maybe it's created by the media, but he is high maintenance and it's always something.
4. Donovan's strength is his elusiveness and ability to create. Plus he doesn't have a lot of touch, but throws good long balls. His injuries have hampered his running (along with his desire not to be known as a running QB) and his lack of touch is not good for the Worst Coast Offense.
Not saying that there is an issue,as Reid and Heckert will never ever say that...but I wonder if behind the scenes there is a concern.....this organization had to see that the team was stagnant with Don last year, has seen the whole TO debacle obviously effect Don the year before (and his weight lifting injury)...plus he's been out and outside of McMahon, back-ups have been pretty successful, at least with winning games. They are not more skilled, but....I just have to wonder if something is going on. Which we will never know about.

9:39 AM EDT  
Anonymous Phil said...

First off, QBs can be effective in this league well into their mid-30s so no one should consider 5 at the end of his career. IF he stays healthy, he's got at least 5 more good years left.

BUT he can't stay healthy. That's why they picked Kolb and I think that's a good decision. I doubt Reid or Heckert are looking to trade or offload him over the next 5 years unless he's unable to physically get on the field. Given the past 4 years, you've got to say there's at least a 1 in 3 chance that occurs (if not higher). Considering the value of the position (QB's most important), then you've got to draft a replacement and it's much better to do that with a higher than a lower pick.

I wouldn't say the window is closed. I think they have the talent to at least get into the playoffs and once you're in, anyone has a shot as PIT showed 2 years ago.

12:37 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"P.S. Something is very wrong in the world when I am the voice of reason."

Trust me, Joe. You're still a dope.

1:09 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Those are strong words from an unsigned post.

- Joe

4:03 PM EDT  
Blogger Bumble said...

I am not giving up on 10-6 or even the playoffs, but being realistic, neither they nor any other NFC team is going to win the Super Bowl any time soon. The Pats, Chargers, Colts, and even teams like Pittsburgh, Cincy, Denver, and the rising Jets will see to that. The Birds don't match up against those teams right now. We'll see first hand in some cases this year.

But that point is moot because you can still count me in. Will I watch every week...yup. Will I get upset if they don't win the Super Bowl...yup. Will I dress both my daughters in McNabb jersies and cheer like crazy for 3 hours every Sunday...yup.

10:15 PM EDT  

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