Monday, September 11, 2006

Reggie Bush

yesterday, the announcers for the game mentioned that the saints may regret not taking reggie bush and/or not trading down. this morning, big dog mentions similar concerns in his comments.

i thought about this a bit while watching yesterday's game and i've decided that i think the texans made the right move.

- there's no way they were going to take a running back with the first pick in the draft, "next barry sanders" or not. kubiak comes from the denver system and they believe you can turn anyone into a thousand yard back. heck, terrell davis was a sixth round pick. no way, they take a running back number 1

- they tried to trade down the whole time, if i recall. it's just that no one is willing to pay a ransom for the top pick anymore. especially when history has shown that the trade usually helps the team trading out rather than the team trading into the top spot and you have researchers telling you that the top picks are well overvalued.

in addition, i just don't believe that reggie bush is going to be that special in the nfl. he's fast, but he's not even close to being barry sanders. barry had moves upon moves. no one ever got a clean shot on barry and he was built like a small tank. his ankles were freakishly thick, and that enabled him to go from full speed to stop in one step. in turn, that enabled barry to make 3-4 guys miss consistently. reggie bush cannot do these things.

bush is much faster than barry ever was, but he is thin, has skinny legs, and can make one guy miss consistently. he'll be a home run hitter for sure because of his speed, but i suspect he'll never be a dominator or be durable enough to be an all-timer.

my conclusion is that houston may have made the wrong move in selecting mario williams, but it won't be because they failed to select reggie bush. if they made the wrong move it will be because they failed to select d'brickashaw ferguson to protect their talented QB.



Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kubiak was not going to trade down for Bush given his belief in plug and chug RB, however, there is no way, NO WAY that you can't trade down that pick for more picks. Look at all the teams that needed RB-Green Bay, Detroit to name a few-that would've killed for someone like Bush to invigorate their teams and put fannies in seats. In addition, there are some teams who are good and one player away-Jags, Arizona (Edge was a bonehead move), Carolina, etc from making some real noise. You could've gotten a lot in return for that pick and there were takers if you looked hard enough.

Williams got handled by Runyan, but it's tough to see if DE are good for 2-3 years. However, he will never live up to what is expected of a number one pick-anything less than Lawrence Taylor or Derrick Thomas will be considered a bust. Bush may not be Sanders-no one ever will again-but he is a ridiculous talent who can contribute in a lot of ways. He makes any team faster and more dangerous on day one. You either take him-clearly the best player in a draft light on skill position talent-at one or you trade the pick and grab multiple picks. You are correct that they should've grabbed Brick for Dave Carr's safety.



9:57 PM EDT  
Anonymous me-was said...

I'm totally with Bumble on this. The idea that you couldn't trade the number #1 pick is absurd.

Mario Williams will never be more than an above average DE/DT because he isn't fast enough or agile enough to be. Is he big and strong? Sure. A game changer? I doubt it.

I guess all the GMs in the league told the Fan they wouldn't give up anything for Reggie Bush, therefore the Texans had to take Mario. Okay.

8:10 AM EDT  
Blogger The Big Dog said...

Yeah, I think that Houston held the cards on this and they folded faster than Gillick on the Abreu trade....Mario Williams was highly touted, but not on the level of say a Vince Young, Bush, Leinart, or even D'Brickshaw....I really struggle with Houston not being able to move that for an extra player or pick(s) plus the other team's #1...Mario may have not even been the biggest impact defensive player taken, there are others who could be just as important...Huff, Wimbley, Bunkley, Ngata....maybe he will, he is one of those freakish looking athletes with long arms, huge pipes, tall and lean, etc....but he doesn't have the burst at this point which is tough to teach....he probably will be great, but I struggle with the idea of Houston not getting him after the guys I mentioned plus's puzzling to me and an example of a team not doing homework (a la San Diego with Vick)....sorry Pete, I just have to disagree with you on this one. I agree with Bush maybe not necessarilly being the best option for Houston, but when a player with the hype of Bush comes along and you basically have his rights, you need to use that to your advantage as leverage....I also agree that D'Brickshaw would have been their best option.

8:52 AM EDT  
Blogger The Big Dog said...

just to clarify, I think that San Diego did a good job with the Vick looks like I disagreed with it above. They did do their homework....bad homework is when they drafted Leaf

8:54 AM EDT  
Blogger The Mean Guy said...

you guys make some good points, but the notion that the texans "folded" is flawed, i think. you could say they folded if they traded the top pick for, say, the 18th pick and a second rounder, but it seems like they did what ben wanted gillick to do in the abreu deal - stick to their guns and not trade out for less than what they wanted.

despite fan and media hype, reggie bush was not that coveted by teams. he was not a clear number one on many teams' draft boards from what i read.

9:19 AM EDT  
Blogger The Mean Guy said...

i'd like to add that the notion of whether or not mario williams was the right selection as the top pick is a different issue than whether or not they should have traded down.

i agree that they should have traded down, but the fact that they didn't (when they were actively trying to do so in the months leading up to the draft) leads me to believe that the market for reggie bush just wasn't there.

9:23 AM EDT  
Anonymous me-was said...

That's a reasonable conclusion, Pete. But mine is that the Texan's general manager isn't as good as he needs to be. Owning the first pick is a once-in-a-tenure opportunity. You really don't want to squander those. One man's "actively trying to do so in the months leading up to the draft" is another's "didn't have the moxie to get the job done." Who knows? I wasn't there. But the great ones make things happen while the mediocre ones rationalize why they didn't. Just one guys opinion.

9:46 PM EDT  

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